The USF Bulls take on the Alabama Crimson Tide in Tuscaloosa, AL. Tip-off is set for 8 p.m. ET on SEC Network+.
Alabama is favored by -14.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -1350. The total is set at 181.5 points.
Here’s my USF vs. Alabama prediction and college basketball picks for December 17, 2025.
USF vs Alabama Prediction
My Pick: USF +14.5 (Play to +13)
My USF vs Alabama best bet is on the Crimson Tide to cover the spread. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
USF vs. Alabama Odds
| USF Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+14.5 -105 | 181.5 -112 / -108 | +800 |
| Alabama Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-14.5 -115 | 181.5 -112 / -108 | -1350 |
- USF vs Alabama spread: Alabama -14.5
- USF vs Alabama over/under: 181.5 points
- USF vs Alabama moneyline: USF +800, Alabama -1350
USF vs Alabama College Basketball Betting Preview
USF Basketball
South Florida is off to a 6-4 start in year one under head coach Bryan Hodgson. The Bulls have played a reasonably challenging non-conference schedule, highlighted by a 13-point home win over a good Utah State team.
However, outside of that result, they've come up short against the other top-100 opponents on their slate.
Hodgson comes from Nate Oats’ coaching tree, having served as an assistant at both Buffalo and Alabama.
That influence shows up clearly. USF plays fast (19th nationally in tempo), spaces the floor well and fires up plenty of 3s (44.2% of its field goal attempts come from behind the arc).
The issue so far has been efficiency. The Bulls are shooting just 31.2% from deep, and senior guard Joseph Pinion — who's 34-for-89 from downtown at 38% — has been the only reliable high-volume shooter.
There are other areas where USF has been much more effective. The Bulls are an excellent offensive rebounding team (28th nationally) and they consistently pressure the rim (36th in foul rate). They've also been strong in the turnover battle, ranking 20th nationally in turnover margin.
Two starters — Pinion and big man Izaiyah Nelson — followed Hodgson from Arkansas State. Nelson has been a force inside, averaging 12.9 points, 9.3 rebounds and 3.0 stocks per game.
Overall, the five-out offensive approach leads to balanced scoring, as five different players are averaging double figures.
Alabama Basketball
Nate Oats challenged Alabama once again with an incredibly tough schedule to open the season. The Tide sit at 7-3, with all three losses coming against top-10 teams in Purdue, Gonzaga and Arizona. Alabama has still secured marquee wins over St. John’s, Illinois and Clemson.
Bama plays at the eighth-fastest pace in the country and owns the fifth-most efficient offense. Oats’ group is attempting 54% of its field goals from behind the arc, the fifth-highest rate nationally.
That elite spacing consistently opens up the lane, contributing to Alabama ranking 10th in 2-point percentage.
Ball security has also been the best it’s been during Oats’ tenure, with the Tide sitting 16th nationally in turnover rate.
On the other end, Alabama doesn't force many turnovers due to its reliance on drop coverage.
Labaron Philon Jr. is playing like an All-American. He’s carving defenses up off the dribble, finishing at the rim and creating quality looks for teammates. Philon’s jump as a shooter has been massive, improving from 32% from 3 as a freshman to 42% this season.
Even accounting for the elite competition, Alabama’s biggest concern so far has been interior defense and rebounding. Purdue, Gonzaga and Arizona all feature dominant frontcourts, and the Tide were outrebounded by 24, 12 and 20 in those matchups, respectively.
That said, Alabama was able to weather the storm on the glass against St. John’s, Illinois and Clemson, teams that also had the physical edge inside.
USF vs. Alabama Betting Analysis
Alabama hosted Hodgson’s Arkansas State Red Wolves on November 8, 2024, and won 88-79. The Tide were favored by 24 in that game. It’s interesting when two head coaches clash who spent so much time working on the same sidelines in the past and who think very similarly.
I’m high on Alabama. I took the Tide at 35-1 to win the title preseason, and I don’t go against Oats very often. But we’re getting a lot of points here with a USF team that I’m really impressed with.
The Bulls will be comfortable playing at Bama’s face, they're really good on the offensive glass — which is a key area to exploit the Tide — and Hodgson outperformed expectations against Oats last season.
That’s enough for me to feel good about taking the points.
My Pick: USF +14.5 (Play to +13)
