The Vermont Catamounts play the UMBC Retrievers in the America East title game. Tip-off is set for 11 a.m. ET on ESPN2.
UMBC is favored by 3 points on the spread with a moneyline of -165. Meanwhile, Vermont is the underdog at +3 with a moneyline +140. The total is set at 135.5 points.
Here’s my Vermont vs. UMBC predictions and college basketball picks for March 14, 2026.
Vermont vs. UMBC Odds, Spread, Pick
| Vermont Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3 -110 | 135.5 -115o / -105u | +140 |
| UMBC Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3 -110 | 135.5 -115o / -105u | -165 |
My Pick: UMBC ML -155
My Vermont vs UMBC best bet is on the Retrievers to cover the spread. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
Vermont vs UMBC America East Championship Preview
Vermont Catamounts Betting Preview
In what's been a tremendous era for Catamounts basketball under head coach John Becker, Vermont looks to return to the Big Dance after failing to qualify in 2024-25.
Becker’s bunch (22-11 overall) is listed as an underdog heading into Saturday afternoon’s America East title game; the team's third meeting of the season with the Retrievers.
Gus Yalden leads the Catamounts in scoring, posting an impressive 16 points per game while also recording nearly six rebounds on average. The Seton Hall transfer leads a Catamounts offense that averages over 74 points per game.
Yalden is an exceptional talent on the offensive post, and nearly impossible to contain defensively if you let him get to his right hand. The junior is extremely versatile as well, with elite court vision and passing ability when interior defenses make the mistake of doubling him.
The chemistry between Yalden and TJ Hurley has turned Becker’s offensive unit into a powerhouse. The Canadian guard is scoring over 15 points per contest in his final collegiate season
The Catamount senior is unbelievably efficient with the ball in his hands, converting on nearly 40% of his attempts from downtown, and consistently ranks amongst the best from the charity stripe.
Hurley is a gifted scorer who can do it all over the floor, boasting impressive versatility shooting off the dribble, in catch-and-shoot and pulling up at the top of the key.
The Vermont guard improved substantially in the offseason in attacking the basket, as Becker has implemented far more perimeter spacing this season in the half-court. That's resulted in the Catamounts' star adding further scoring avenues to his bag. Hurley is easily one of the most dynamic scorers in mid-major hoops.
In Vermont’s first meeting with UMBC on the road, Hurley scored just five points, but ultimately bounced back in the contest in Burlington when he recorded 18 points.
Alongside Hurley, Vermont guard Sean Blake is posting double-figure scoring efforts this season, as well. The sophomore adds further versatility to Becker’s backcourt, as he's recorded both four rebounds and four assists per game.
Against a talented Retrievers defensive unit, I expect Becker to use Vermont’s impressive depth to throw more inconsistent looks at UMBC to minimize the effectiveness of Ferry’s heavy switch defensive flow.
TJ Long has been rather impressive off the bench; the former Fairfield Stag is posting double-figure scoring efforts as well. I expect both freshmen Lucas Mari and Momo Nkugwa to receive some increased minutes off the bench.
Like UMBC, Vermont’s defense is also allowing its opponents to score less than 69 per contest, ranking inside the top-50 nationally. Becker’s bunch is also stellar when it comes to crashing the defensive glass, ranking second in college basketball at an unbelievable 79.6% clip.
UMBC Retrievers Betting Preview
UMBC heads into this final with a 23-8 overall record, and is in scorching form, having won 11 consecutive contests.
The last loss for Jim Ferry’s bunch came against its Saturday opponent, Vermont. The two America East foes split their first two meetings this season, with each team winning on its home floor.
The Retrievers haven't been to the Big Dance since 2018, when Ryan Odom was at the helm. UMBC made history as the first 16-seed to win a game in the NCAA Tournament, as Odom’s Retrievers took down top-seeded Virginia, ironically where Odom currently serves as head coach.
Back to this season, UMBC boasts elite guard play, with the likes of Ace Valentine, Jah’Likai King and DJ Armstrong all thriving for a Retrievers offense that's scoring 76 points per game.
UMBC’s guards operate Ferry’s offensive schematics in pretty harmonious fashion, as the three upperclassmen are extremely versatile and all are posting double-figure scoring efforts.
King leads the Retrievers in scoring with over 14 points per contest, with the 6-foot-3 junior also recording nearly four rebounds on average this season. Valentine is more of a facilitator, posting four assists per contest.
While the Retrievers' head coach typically identifies with more of an up-tempo offensive approach, Ferry’s offense has taken more of a methodical approach this season, more frequently settling for efficient looks later in the shot clock.
That being said, the Retrievers are still a highly-efficient, high-scoring offense, maintaining an impressive +7 scoring margin. While UMBC’s shoot-first style has taken somewhat of a pause this season, the Retrievers' guards are still pretty efficient from downtown, ranking inside the top 70 nationally in 3-point field goal percentage.
The offensive attack is far more rim-oriented this season, as the guards love taking it to the rack, often dishing to one of the post players upon a defensive-shift. However, the Retrievers' frontcourt is far more effective on the opposite end of the floor.
Jose Roberto Tanchyn is having a breakout junior campaign on the interior. While scoring less than seven points per game, the Spaniard has proven to be an elite rim protector.
While the Retrievers' defense is far from efficient (outside the top 200 in the country in defensive efficiency rating per KenPom), it's allowing just over 67 points per game, which ranks top-40 nationally.
Tanchyn has been a monster inside the paint and has largely contributed to UMBC’s defensive unit ranking top-six nationally in both opponent FTM/game, and opponent FTA/game. On top of committing the lowest number of fouls out of any team in college basketball, the Retrievers are phenomenal on the glass on both ends of the floor.
Vermont vs. UMBC Pick, Betting Analysis
We're in for a doozy in Saturday’s America East final as the conference’s two top dogs are set to duke it out after splitting their two meetings in the regular season.
On top of recording a far superior overall record, the Catamounts now must win a borderline road game in Baltimore, adding further difficulty to the task at hand.
While the Catamounts are far more accustomed to winning in March, Becker’s unit will need to pull off an upset to evade consecutive missed tournament bids.
Vermont will surely require a phenomenal defensive effort matched up with the Retrievers’ three perimeter guards.
It'll be interesting to see how Becker game plans defensively given how often the head coach implements contrasting defensive styles based on the opposing offense it's matched up with. I suspect Vermont will play man-to-man in hopes to contain the Retrievers’ star guards.
I ultimately favor UMBC in this matchup given its exceptional defensive prowess. This is a tough defensive matchup for Vermont up against a Retrievers backcourt with ample experience and star power.
I'll be backing the Retrievers on the moneyline to make their first NCAA Tournament since they made history in 2018.
My Pick: UMBC ML -155
