The Virginia Cavaliers play the Duke Blue Devils in the ACC Championship. Tip-off is set for 8:30 p.m. ET on ESPN.
Duke is favored by -7.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -330. Meanwhile, Virginia is the underdog at +7.5 with a moneyline of +265. The total is set at 139.5 points.
Here’s my Virginia vs. Duke predictions and college basketball picks for March 14, 2026.
Virginia vs Duke Prediction
My Pick: Over 137.5
My Virginia vs Duke best bet is on the over. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
Virginia vs Duke Odds
| Virginia Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+7.5 -115 | 139.5 -110o / -110u | +265 |
| Duke Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-7.5 -105 | 139.5 -110o / -110u | -330 |
- Virginia vs Duke spread: Duke -7.5
- Virginia vs Duke over/under: 139.5 points
- Virginia vs Duke moneyline: Virginia +265, Duke -330
Virginia vs Duke College Basketball Betting Preview
Duke beat Virginia 77-51 in their lone matchup this season, holding the Cavaliers to 29% from the field, 20% from three.
Things are different now. Duke is without Pat Ngongba and Caleb Foster, while Virginia has had back-to-back incredible performances out of Ugonna Onyenso.
Onyenso averages 18.5 minutes per game this season, but with Johann Grunloh being in foul trouble, he played 27 minutes against Miami and 30 minutes against NC State.
His offensive emergence, along with his shot blocking ability, has made him the most valuable player for Virginia in the tournament.
Sam Lewis and Malik Thomas both have had an efficient ACC Tournament scoring the basketball with Lewis shooting 80% from three while Thomas is averaging 15.5 points per game. In the loss to Duke earlier this year, they combined to shoot 0-14 from the field.
For Duke, Cam Boozer has had to up his game with Pat Ngongba being out, and he has done exactly that. In three games without Ngongba, Boozer is averaging 25 points, 13 rebounds, and 4.6 assists while shooting 54% from the field.
In the win against UVA, Cam Boozer shot 12 free throws in the first half and used Onyenso and Grunloh's aggressiveness to his advantage. If Boozer can get Virginia's bigs in foul trouble, it'll force Virginia to start doubling him, leading to scoring opportunities for others.
This is where Isaiah Evans is pivotal for Duke's offensive success.
Duke scored 80 points against Florida State thanks to Evans scoring a career high 32 points in the Quarterfinal but struggled to score in the second half against Clemson in the Semifinal due to Evans shooting 1-9 from the field.
With UVA's focus being on stopping Cam Boozer, Evans will have the ability to shoot clean looks off of skip passes by Boozer, like in the first matchup against UVA, where Evans hit five threes. Shooters shoot, and Evans will certainly do that, as I expect him to have a nice bounce-back game for the Blue Devils.
Virginia will look to be aggressive against a thin Blue Devil team whose defense has taken a slight dip with the absence of Foster and Ngongba.
My Pick: Over 137.5
