The Virginia Cavaliers take on the Duke Blue Devils in Durham, North Carolina. Tip-off is set for 12 p.m. ET on ESPN.
Duke is favored by 10.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -700. The total is set at 139.5 points.
Here’s my Virginia vs. Duke prediction and college basketball picks for February 28, 2026.
Virginia vs Duke Prediction
My Pick: Under 139.5
My Virginia vs Duke best bet is on the Under. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
Virginia vs. Duke Odds
| Virginia Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+10.5 -110 | 139.5 -110o / -110u | +500 |
| Duke Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-10.5 -110 | 139.5 -110o / -110u | -700 |
- Virginia vs Duke spread: Duke -10.5
- Virginia vs Duke over/under: 139.5
- Virginia vs Duke moneyline: Virginia +500, Duke -700
Virginia vs Duke College Basketball Betting Preview
Virginia Basketball
Virginia is back to national relevance. The Cavaliers have been on a torrid pace, winning nine straight games, which has helped them improve their record to 25-3 overall and 13-2 in ACC play.
If Virginia finds a way to win in Durham, it'll be in a tie for first place in the ACC with Duke.
First-year head coach Ryan Odom dipped his toes in the international pool, and it resulted in Virginia having one of the best interiors in America.
The best scorer for Virginia is Thijs De Ridder, a freshman from Belgium who averages 16 points per game. He shoots 52% from the field and is a capable shooter from 3 (32%). Next to De Ridder is Johann Grunloh, who has a 12.2% block rate (seventh-best nationally) and Ugonna Onyenso, who has a dazzling 15% block rate (best nationally).
In turn, the Cavaliers have the 16th-most efficient defense in America, thanks to their interior limiting teams to 44% shooting on 2s (fifth-best). Shooting 3s against it isn't easy either, as Virginia holds teams to 30% from deep.
On the offensive end, Virginia will look to rise and fire from 3, attempting triples on 46% of its field goals. The Cavaliers shoot 36% on those shots, but they also grab the fourth-highest rate of offensive rebounds. The spacing from the shooting also creates more chances for De Ridder to get inside and score at the hoop.
Virginia has four guards who average eight-plus points per game, and all four are big-time shooters. Freshman guard Chance Mallory is a real spark plug and shoots 36% from deep. Malik Thomas is the shot-creator of the bunch. He averages 12.3 points per game and can score 20+ when he's hot.
Keep an eye on Jacari White and Sam Lewis, though. That pair can get really hot from deep.
Duke Basketball
Duke could easily be 28-0 right now. If it wasn't for a 17-point blown lead against Texas Tech and a miracle 3-pointer from. North Carolina, we'd be looking at an unbeaten Blue Devils team.
The best defense in America resides in Durham. Duke ranks No. 1 in KenPom's defensive efficiency, holding opponents to 46% shooting on 2s (17th) and 30% from deep (29th). Don't expect Virginia to dominate the offensive boards either, as Duke gobbles up misses at the ninth-best rate.
The Blue Devils are plenty effective on the offensive end, as well. They have the seventh most efficient offense in America and are elite at scoring inside, shooting 62% on 2s.
Everything centers around Cam Boozer. He already has the National Player of the Year award locked in, averaging 22.8 points, 10.1 rebounds and 4.0 assists per game.
Boozer's passing is his most underrated skill. He can operate at the top of the key and dish to shooters, but the shooters can let him down at times. The team hits just 34% from deep, with Boozer's 40% leading the way.
Isaiah Evans and Caleb Foster are the X-factors. Evans can go for 30 and hit nine 3s, or he will go 1-for-9. He's the streakiest "good" player in the country.
Foster is also shooting 40% from deep, and he's settled in nicely in a more off-ball role.
That's part of Duke's "problem." It plays slow, shoots a lot of 3s and has an elite defense. When the shots fall, Duke can easily score 80+ points. When the shots don't fall, Duke can play a game in the 60s and be content due to its defense.
Virginia vs. Duke Betting Analysis
With Duke and Virginia both having elite defenses and ranking outside the top 250 in adjusted tempo, I have to go under.
Since both teams shoot a lot of 3s, that could sting me, but the dominance of the two defenses should make it tougher to get clean looks from deep.
Plus, Duke and Virginia are elite on the boards on both ends. That should lead to some one-and-done possessions, allowing a slower half-court setup.
My Pick: Under 139.5
