Wisconsin vs Illinois Odds & Pick
| Wisconsin Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Point Spread | Total Points | Moneyline |
+3.5 -110 | 148 -110o / -110u | +140 |
| Illinois Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Point Spread | Total Points | Moneyline |
-3.5 -110 | 148 -110o / -110u | -165 |
The Illinois Fighting Illini might have had their best half of the season in a triumph over the Nebraska Cornhuskers in the semifinals of the Big Ten Tournament. Meanwhile, Wisconsin battled with Purdue in its semifinal and slugged out a win against the regular-season conference champions.
Wisconsin looks like it has hit its stride, and Badgers fans can breathe a sigh of relief with Tyler Wahl and Chucky Hepburn being healthy.
With the season on the line, the two teams who have lurked in Purdue’s shadow will duke it out for the conference title.
Wisconsin has been good on the offensive end, and the Badgers utilize the post-up more than most teams do. In fact, they like to default to a 2-pointer far more often for that reason. Steven Crowl is usually the recipient of those opportunities. Illinois does struggle in this regard, so Wisconsin getting the ball down low may not be so bad for the Badgers.
The Badgers typically like to play in the half-court, where they manufacture the majority of their points. And if it wants to win this game, Wisconsin will have to slow down the pace. Otherwise, the Fighting Illini will get out in transition and torch the Badgers on the break, like they did last time.
Wisconsin is also particularly good on the defensive glass, which could offset an Illinois edge on the boards. Ty Rodgers, Quincy Guerrier and others have shown they can be vultures for the basketball after a missed shot, helping the Fighting Illini to a top-20 ranking in offensive rebounding. But the Badgers have the rebounding talent to cut into that advantage.
The Fighting Illini like to shoot the ball from deep. They are hitting 35% from beyond the arc as a unit and shoot more 3s than 2s. Wisconsin is one of the worst teams in the entire country in guarding the arc, with opponents shooting over 37% on the Badgers from outside. They also rank 311th in Open 3 Rate, per Shot Quality. Terrence Shannon Jr. has shown out in this tournament, so Wisconsin might have trouble guarding him from outside.
Shannon and Marcus Domask have also displayed a propensity for getting to the free-throw line. Wisconsin ranks poorly in getting to the charity stripe itself and also tends to have trouble not fouling opponents. Illinois does not really foul its opponents, so the Fighting Illini should have the advantage in the free-throw department.
While they like to shoot from the perimeter, the Fighting Illini are also efficient inside the perimeter. Wisconsin showed it could defend Zach Edey and Purdue inside, but Illinois will also be a test, with the Fighting Illini shooting over 54% from 2-point range. Illinois ranks well in finishing at the rim and has the interior size advantage as well.
Coleman Hawkins, Domask and others haven't even really showcased their abilities for the Illinois, but the Fighting Illini have still managed to win behind stellar performances from Shannon.
Look for Illinois to take home its first Big Ten title since 2021 — and cover the spread in the process.
Pick: Illinois -3 (Play to -4)
