The Wisconsin Badgers take on the Maryland Terrapins in College Park, MD. Tip-off is set for 7 p.m. ET on Big Ten Network.
Maryland is favored by 5.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -225. The total is set at 152.5 points.
Here are my Wisconsin vs. Maryland predictions and college basketball picks for January 29, 2025.
Wisconsin vs Maryland Prediction, Picks
My Pick: Under 153.5 (Play to 151)
My Wisconsin vs Maryland best bet is on the under, with the best odds currently available at BetMGM. For all of your college basketball bets, find the best lines using our live NCAAB odds page.
Wisconsin vs Maryland Odds, Spread
| Wisconsin Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+5 -105 | 152 -110o / -110u | +180 |
| Maryland Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-5 -115 | 152 -110o / -110u | -225 |
- Wisconsin vs Maryland spread: Maryland -5, Wisconsin +5
- Wisconsin vs Maryland over/under: 152
- Wisconsin vs Maryland moneyline: Maryland ML -225, Wisconsin ML +180
Wisconsin vs Maryland Picks, NCAAB Preview
Wisconsin’s offense is legit.
The Badgers can run everything through Steven Crowl and Nolan Winter in the post, who are two legit post-up scorers (1.05 post-up PPP, 91st percentile, per Synergy). But they’re both good at throwing the ball toward the perimeter out of doubles, leading to plenty of open jumpers.
They’re equally deadly when using the Max Klesmit, John Tonje and John Blackwell wing trio as interchangeable ball-screen wings (.99 pick-and-roll ball-handler PPP, 99th percentile, per Synergy).
Also, the two bigs provide a nice pick-and-pop spacing wrinkle in those sets, given they’ve combined to shoot 49-for-135 (36%) from deep.
Ultimately, the Badgers run a very sound rim-and-3-based five-out offense that either rim-runs with their two bigs, rim-runs with their wings or hits perimeter jumpers from inside-out post feeds or pick-and-pops.
Greg Gard’s offense is versatile and scary, which explains why the Badgers rank eighth nationally in KenPom’s adjusted offensive efficiency metric.
That said, I think the Badgers are a tad overvalued. In conference play, they lead all Big Ten teams in 3-point shooting (40%) and 3-point rate (49%), and I doubt that’s sustainable.
Can Maryland force some of that regression? Maybe.
The Terps play drop-coverage defense with Julian Reese or Derik Queen anchoring the interior. This helps them keep opponents away from the rim while running shooters off the 3-point line. Maryland ranks in the top 30 nationally in rim-and-3 rate allowed (78%, per ShotQuality).
That said, drop coverage will invite perimeter ball-screen creation and funnel it toward the high-painted area. So, Klesmit, Tonje and Blackwell could eat in the middle of the floor, even if that’s not where the Badgers like to operate.
On the other end of the court, the Terps will mainly play through Queen and Reese as rollers in the half-court, although Ja’Kopi Gillespie is also a strong ball-screen creator. Maryland is also dynamic in transition (19 transition points per game, most in the Big Ten, per Synergy).
However, unlike Wisconsin, I have some issues with Maryland’s floor spacing. The Terps are jump-shot averse, which can crowd the lanes for Queen, Reese and Gillespie.
The best way to beat Wisconsin is to make the two-big lineup defend in space and to beat it over the top — for example, dribble hand-off-based offenses have given the Badgers fits this season. I doubt Maryland can do that.
However, Wisconsin’s ball-screen coverage has been sketchy this year (.89 PPP allowed, 45th percentile, per Synergy), as the wings and bigs aren’t super laterally mobile. Maryland can take advantage of that.
Ultimately, this game will come down to whoever creates better in the middle of the floor. That could — surprisingly — lead to some inefficient, mid-range-jumper-based offense.
Therefore, I’m thinking under.
Of critical importance, both teams are elite in transition denial, especially Wisconsin (nine transition points per game allowed, second-fewest in the Big Ten, per Synergy). If the Badgers keep this game out of the open court, they could force Maryland into a more uncomfortable half-court game script.
Meanwhile, the Terps are elite at forcing long opponents deep into the shot clock (19-second average defensive possession, 12th-longest nationally, per KenPom), so the Badgers — who seldom operate in transition — will be forced to work methodically.
Additionally, neither team spends much time at the free-throw line, which will keep the clock churning rather than extending the game (especially at the end of the first half).
Ultimately, I expect a slow-paced affair filled with middle-of-the-court dribble penetration and shot creation, which doesn’t bode well for efficient offense.
Throw in Wisconsin’s looming shooting regression, and this could turn into an all-out rock fight.
EvanMiya projects the total closer to 149 than 153, and I tend to agree.
