The Wisconsin Badgers play the Michigan Wolverines in the Big Ten Tournament semifinals. Tip-off is set for 1 p.m. ET on CBS.
Michigan is favored by 12 points on the spread with a moneyline of -800. Meanwhile, Wisconsin is the underdog at +12 with a moneyline of +550. The total is set at 161 points.
Here’s my Wisconsin vs. Michigan predictions and college basketball picks for March 14, 2026.
Wisconsin vs Michigan Odds, Spread, Pick
| Wisconsin Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+12 -110 | 161 -110o / -110u | +550 |
| Michigan Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-12 -110 | 161 -110o / -110u | -800 |
My Wisconsin vs Michigan best bet is on the Wolverines to cover the spread. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
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Wisconsin vs Michigan 2026 Big Ten Tournament Semifinal Picks
Michigan is hunting for revenge against Wisconsin — the only Big Ten team to beat it in league play.
The path to revenge is all about shooting. Wisconsin went 15-of-33 from deep in its stunning win in Ann Arbor, and Michigan went 8-of-25. For top-25-ish teams to beat a top-five team, you have to get really hot from beyond the arc, which is exactly what the Badgers did in that game.
Most of the Badgers' offensive production comes from their guards, Nick Boyd and John Blackwell. The pair combined for 48 of Wisconsin's 85 points in its win over Washington in the Big Ten Tournament and 69 of 91 in its most recent overtime win over Illinois.
Much of Wisconsin's offensive success stems from Boyd's dribble driving, which results in him finishing or dishing to shooters. The Badgers will want to shoot from 3-point range, attempting triples on 52% of their field goals while hitting 34% of them.
All five starters are shooting threats, but I'm not sure Wisconsin's interior can hang with Michigan's physical bigs. With Nolan Winter injured, the Badgers really only have Austin Rapp and Aleksas Bieliauskas.
Rapp plays the four at 6-foot-10, 238 pounds, and is limited outside of shooting. Bileliauskas is more physical than Rapp, but he tends to get in foul trouble.
In the first game of the tourney for Wisconsin, it allowed 20 offensive rebounds to a bigger, physical Washington squad.
If the Badgers struggled with Washington's bigs, they'll struggle against 7-foot-2 Aday Mara, Morez Johnson Jr. and Yaxel Lendeborg. Wisconsin will have to choose to play Mara one-on-one or give help and leave the shooters.
Shooting will be what determines if Michigan can cover the lofty 12.5-point spread or not. The Wolverines went 5-of-17 in the close quarterfinal battle against Ohio State, but that's an off game for them, as they're shooting over 40% from deep since Feb. 1.
Michigan will crush Wisconsin if it can approach the 40% number for the game.
I have full faith in Michigan's defense limiting Wisconsin. Boyd won't be able to drive as easily, and Lendeborg loves blocking 3-point shots.
I expect a fairly routine revenge win for Michigan.
My Pick: Michigan -12.5 (Play to -13.5)
