To kick off the New Year's Eve bowl slate, the Alabama Crimson Tide (9-3, 5-3 SEC) will take on the Michigan Wolverines (7-5, 5-4 Big Ten) in the ReliaQuest Bowl. The game will start at 12 p.m. ET on ESPN.
Finishing No. 11 in the final College Football Playoff rankings, Alabama was in line to make the CFP before Clemson defeated SMU, 34-31, in the ACC Championship game.
That may cause some questions about its motivation for this bowl game. However, it also has the opportunity to get revenge for last season's CFP semifinals.
It has been quite the fall from grace for the Wolverines after winning the national title last season. However, they did end the season with a fourth consecutive victory over arch-rival Ohio State, 13-10.
Michigan was a double-digit underdog against the Buckeyes and will be a double-digit 'dog in this bowl game as well. Alabama enters as a -14 favorite with the over/under set at 43.5.
Let's get to my Alabama vs. Michigan predictions and college football picks for the 2024 ReliaQuest Bowl on Tuesday, Dec. 31.
Alabama Crimson Tide vs Michigan Wolverines Prediction, Picks
- Alabama vs. Michigan Pick: Alabama -13.5
My Michigan vs. Alabama best bet is on Crimson Tide, with the best line currently available at DraftKings, according to our live NCAAF odds page.
Alabama vs Michigan Odds, Spread, Lines
| Alabama Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-16.5 -116 | 44.5 -115o / -105u | -900 |
| Michigan Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+16.5 -105 | 44.5 -115o / -105u | +550 |
- Alabama vs Michigan Spread: Alabama -16.5 · Michigan +16.5
- Alabama vs Michigan Over/Under: 44.5
- Alabama vs Michigan Moneyline: Alabama -900 · Michigan +550
Alabama vs Michigan ReliaQuest Bowl Betting Preview
Alabama Crimson Tide Betting Preview: Dominant Pass Game
In his second year as a starter, Jalen Milroe has completed 65% of his passes and accounted for 3,371 total yards and 35 touchdowns against 10 interceptions.
He has experienced several highs this season (Georgia and LSU) and lows (Tennessee and Oklahoma). However, his tantalizing potential may make him a first-round pick in the upcoming NFL Draft.
Milroe has not made that decision and is expected to play in this bowl game.
The Crimson Tide signal-caller has been Alabama's leading rusher this season and its top two backs — Jam Miller and Justice Haynes — have combined for over 1,000 yards and 14 touchdowns.
Milroe and Miller may get the bulk of the carries in this one, as Haynes has entered the transfer portal and ironically is committed to Michigan.
Redshirt freshman Richard Young may see increased opportunities as well after growing up two hours away in Lehigh Acres.
Either way, expect Milroe to target Ryan Williams early and often.
The standout true freshman has averaged 19 yards per catch this season and ranks second among FBS true freshmen with 857 receiving yards and eight touchdowns. Junior Germie Bernard has 46 receptions for 714 yards as well and forms a capable duo with Williams.
Alabama ranks 11th in Passing Success Rate overall.
Defensively, this was not a historic Alabama defense like we've seen in years past under Nick Saban. However, it ranked 32nd in total defense and 10th in scoring.
The Crimson Tide also sit sixth in Finishing Drives.
Alabama will be without linebacker Deontae Lawson and safeties Keon Sabb and Malachi Moore. However, this is still a matchup where it should dominate defensively.
Michigan Wolverines Betting Preview: Defensive Strength Meets Offensive Uncertainty
Heading into late November, it was still up in the air whether Michigan would be eligible for a bowl game. The Wolverines then exploded for a 50-point outburst against Northwestern before beating Ohio State.
However, the performance against Northwestern was an exception and not the rule for Michigan this season. It has scored 20 points in just four games of its 10 games against Power 4 opponents.
Michigan ranked 112nd in scoring offense and 130th in passing offense.
The passing game revolved around tight end Colston Loveland, who led the team with 56 receptions for 582 yards and five touchdowns. However, Loveland has declared for the NFL Draft and opted out of this game.
Michigan will also be missing wide receiver Tyler Morris, running backs Kalel Mullings and Donovan Edwards, and left tackle Myles Hinton. Redshirt freshman Evan Link, who has struggled on the right side, will start in place of Hinton.
If the Wolverines are going to pull an upset here, it'll be because of the defense. This unit sacked Milroe six times and limited him to 179 total yards in last year's Rose Bowl.
Defensive tackle Mason Graham had a dominant performance and blew up the game-clinching fourth down play in last year's matchup. However, Milroe won't not have to worry about Graham this year or linemates Kenneth Grant and Josaiah Stewart.
Projected first-round cornerback Will Johnson has also opted out of this game, which should present favorable matchups for Williams against Michigan's secondary. Michigan ranks 81st in Passing Success Rate Allowed this season.
Michigan vs Alabama Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Michigan and Alabama match up statistically:
Alabama Offense vs. Michigan Defense
 |  Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 56 | 22 | |
| Line Yards | 111 | 31 | |
| Pass Success | 11 | 81 | |
| Havoc | 96 | 32 | |
| Finishing Drives | 6 | 44 | |
| Quality Drives | 22 | 57 | |
Michigan Offense vs. Alabama Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 70 | 40 | |
| Line Yards | 53 | 46 | |
| Pass Success | 88 | 17 | |
| Havoc | 68 | 42 | |
| Finishing Drives | 38 | 6 | |
| Quality Drives | 95 | 8 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 2 | 19 |
| PFF Coverage | 16 | 87 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 29 | 13 |
| Middle 8 | 6 | 35 |
| Seconds per Play | 27.4 (78) | 31.0 (131) |
| Rush Rate | 59% (31) | 60% (22) |
How to Bet My Alabama vs Michigan Pick
If Michigan was at full strength, it likely wouldn't have enough offense to win this game. However, in addition to missing its top playmakers offensively, it will also be missing the majority of its standout defenders as well.
That will open opportunities for other young players to stand out and make a name for themselves, but Alabama is not the ideal opponent for a debut.
Additionally, this is a double revenge spot for Alabama.
The Wolverines defeated the Tide in the CFP semifinal before knocking out their current head coach Kalen DeBoer and his Washington team in the National Championship game.
If given the opportunity, expect Alabama to run up the score in this matchup.
It also has dominated in previous non-CFP bowl games, defeating Michigan State, 49-7, in the 2011 Citrus Bowl, Michigan 35-16 in the 2020 Citrus Bowl and Kansas State 45-20 in the 2023 Sugar Bowl.
Another 19-point victory would cover this spread, and I expect the Crimson Tide to win by at least two touchdowns.
Pick: Alabama -13.5 (Play to -16.5)
Alabama vs Michigan Start Time, TV Channel, Location, How to Watch
| Location: | Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, FL |
| Date: | Tuesday, Dec. 31 |
| Kickoff Time: | 12 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | ESPN |
Alabama takes on Michigan in the ReliaQuest Bowl on Tuesday, Dec. 31 at 12 p.m. ET on ESPN.
Alabama vs Michigan Betting Trends
Alabama vs Michigan Weather
