The Arizona Wildcats take on the SMU Mustangs in the 2026 Holiday Bowl in San Diego on Friday, Jan. 2. Kickoff is set for 8 p.m. ET on FOX.
SMU is favored by 1 point on the spread with a moneyline of -115. Arizona, meanwhile, enters as a +1 underdog and is -105 on the moneyline to pull off the upset. The over/under sits at 52 total points.
Here’s my Arizona vs. SMU prediction and college football picks for Friday, January 2.
Arizona vs SMU Prediction, Picks
- Arizona vs. SMU Pick: Arizona ML -125 or Better
My SMU vs. Arizona best bet is on the Wildcats to win outright. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
Arizona vs SMU Odds, Line, Spread
| Arizona Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -110 | 51.5 -118o / -102u | -105 |
| SMU Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -110 | 51.5 -118o / -102u | -115 |
- Arizona vs SMU Spread: SMU -1.5, Arizona +1.5
- Arizona vs SMU Over/Under: 51.5 Points
- Arizona vs SMU Moneyline: SMU ML -115, Arizona ML -105
Arizona vs SMU College Football Betting Preview
Arizona Wildcats Betting Preview
There’s a lot of roster uncertainty heading in, but I have a feeling Arizona will be at almost full strength.
Because of that, I love the 'Cats here.
Let’s start with the roster, since that can matter more than any stat during bowl season.
Arizona head coach Brent Brennan has said there may be opt-outs, but he isn’t announcing them. That’s a smart move because SMU can’t prepare for which starters might be out.
So far, Arizona’s only confirmed changes are a couple of transfers (guard Michael Wooten and tight end Keyan Burnett) and two possible opt-outs, cornerback Treydan Stukes and safety Genesis Smith.
That’s not ideal, but it’s manageable.
For injuries, the main absences are right tackle Tristan Bounds, who missed the last two games, and nose tackle Tiaoalii Savea, who hasn’t played since Week 11.
Now look at SMU. The Mustangs have already lost outside linebacker DJ Warner to the transfer portal after 207 snaps, and they could be missing even more.
SMU Mustangs Betting Preview
The following players are all possible opt-outs:
- WR Romello Brinson
- TEs RJ Maryland and Matthew Hibner
- OL Logan Parr
- DL Jeff M’ba
- S Isaiah Nwokobia.
Quarterback Kevin Jennings will play, but he is going to be in trouble without all of his key pieces offensively.
Now for the matchup, which is where Arizona really stands out.
The Wildcats’ defense has been tough all year, especially against the pass.
They rank third nationally in EPA per Pass allowed and are in the top six in Early Downs EPA allowed.
That’s exactly what you want against an SMU offense that relies on staying ahead of schedule and making big, explosive plays.
Arizona is going to put Jennings and Co. into tough situations all evening long, which is the recipe for a strong defensive performance.
Even with opt-outs for the Wildcats, I still like their chances to cause a lot of disruption defensively.
Arizona’s run defense isn’t elite, but it’s solid enough at 83rd nationally in EPA per Rush allowed.
Jennings will need to win this game by passing, possibly without some of his usual targets, and against one of the best pass defenses he’s faced all season.
We saw how Jennings struggled against decent defenses all season long, and there should not be a different outcome here either.
Arizona vs SMU Holiday Bowl Pick to Bet
On offense, Arizona may not have eye-popping stats, but the Wildcats match up well with SMU’s defense.
Arizona ranks 48th nationally in EPA per Rush and 37th in Available Yards percentage, while SMU’s strength is stopping the run at fourth in EPA per Rush allowed.
SMU’s secondary is more vulnerable, ranking outside the top 40 in Available Yards percentage and late-downs defense.
The Mustangs' average starting field position is also poor, while Arizona usually starts near its own 30.
Arizona can keep drives going, control field position, and avoid the mistakes that usually help SMU’s defense. I really think we will see a bulk of the usual group start, as Brennan wants SMU to believe they won't be at full strength.
Also, SMU’s defense is built to disrupt early downs. But Arizona is average in Early Downs EPA (76th ranked nationally), so the Wildcats don’t often fall behind schedule, and SMU is only ranked 27th in that area.
This means Arizona can keep drives going, forcing SMU to defend long series, which isn’t ideal for their defense.
Add it all up, and you’ve got the deeper, steadier, more complete team with fewer moving pieces in the 'Cats. It’s not surprising that the market isn’t fully baking that in, considering the uncertainty of who is playing for Arizona.
I had this circled entering bowl season, as I was looking to fade SMU in their bowl game.
Even if Arizona is not at full strength, I still like their defense running circles around Jennings all day.
Pick: Arizona ML -125 or Better
