The Texas Bowl takes place on Tuesday afternoon between the Baylor Bears (8-4, 6-3 Big 12) and LSU Tigers (8-4, 5-3 SEC). Kickoff is set for 3:30 p.m. ET on ESPN.
Baylor has won 6 in a row, capped by a 45-17 shellacking of Kansas in the regular-season finale.
LSU, meanwhile, had SEC Championship and College Football Playoff aspirations. However, the Tigers sit here with 8 wins but are coming off a 37-17 win over Oklahoma.
Before kickoff, a massive line movement took place, and it had a lot to do with LSU's opt-outs and transfers. As of Monday afternoon, Baylor enters as a -4 favorite with the over/under set at 60.5.
Let's dive into my Baylor vs. LSU predictions and college football picks for the 2024 Texas Bowl on Saturday, Dec. 31.
Baylor Bears vs. LSU Tigers Prediction, Picks
- Baylor vs. LSU Pick: Baylor Team Total Over 31.5
My LSU vs. Baylor best bet is on the Bears to go over their team total, with the best line currently available at ESPN Bet, according to our live NCAAF odds page.
Baylor vs. LSU Odds, Spread, Lines
| Baylor Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3.5 -106 | 62.5 -115o / -105u | -164 |
| LSU Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3.5 -114 | 62.5 -115o / -105u | +136 |
- Baylor vs. LSU Spread: Baylor -3.5 · LSU
- Baylor vs. LSU Over/Under: 62.5
- Baylor vs. LSU Moneyline: Baylor -164 · LSU +136
Baylor vs. LSU Texas Bowl Betting Preview
Baylor Bears Betting Preview: Key Portal News
There are some notable injuries and transfer portal news for the Bears that are worth mentioning before diving into the breakdown. Here's a list of players who entered the portal, all thanks to Stuckey's terrific bowl opt-out/transfer list that's updated daily:
Baylor Transfer Portal
- S Corey Gordon (376 snaps)
- DE Trey Wilson (228 snaps; committed to SMU)
- OL Alvin Ebosele (176 snaps)
- DL Kaian Roberts Day (91 snaps)
- Backup QB Dequan Finn
It's also important to note a few injuries for the Bears. Cornerback Carl Williams hasn’t played since Week 10, while outside linebackers Steve Linton and Garmon Randolph also missed the finale. However, Linton and Williams were recently seen at practice in full pads.
The biggest takeaway, though, is that the Bears don't have any opt-outs. They've built a ton of momentum from their late stretch in the regular season, and they will have the motivational edge.
LSU Tigers Betting Preview: Opt-Outs a Problem
The Tigers had a disappointing 2024 season, and the number of players opting out or entering the portal reflects that. If you told me anybody besides QB Garrett Nussmeier cares about this game, I'd call you a liar.
Here's the laundry list of portal and opt-out players for the Tigers, per Stuckey:
LSU Transfer Portal
- Starting WR CJ Daniels (committed to Miami)
- Starting S Sage Ryan (committed to Ole Miss)
- TE Ka'Morreun Pimpton (141 snaps)
- DL Jay'viar Suggs (133 snaps)
- WR Shelton Sampson (104 snaps)
- CB JK Johnson (113 snaps; last played Week 5)
- OLB Da'Shawn Womack (103 snaps; signed with Ole Miss)
- S Jordan Allen (111 snaps)
- S Kylin Jackson (50 snaps)
- Backup QB AJ Swann
LSU Opt-Outs
- LT Will Campbell
- RT Emery Jones
- TE Mason Taylor
- WR Kyren Lacy
- S Major Burns
More importantly, LSU's starting offensive tackles and tight end declared for the NFL Draft. The offensive line will consist of three first-year starters, which spells disaster.
LSU arguably had the best offensive line in the SEC, so Nussmeier will have to handle some hiccups during the contest. The Tigers' lack of motivation and questionable roster heading into the game gives me little faith they can pull off the upset.
LSU vs Baylor Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how LSU and Baylor match up statistically:
Baylor Offense vs. LSU Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 39 | 60 | |
| Line Yards | 43 | 53 | |
| Pass Success | 17 | 68 | |
| Havoc | 13 | 33 | |
| Finishing Drives | 32 | 33 |  |
| Quality Drives | 53 | 81 | |
LSU Offense vs. Baylor Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 98 | 13 | |
| Line Yards | 96 | 70 | |
| Pass Success | 26 | 75 | |
| Havoc | 8 | 80 | |
| Finishing Drives | 61 | 77 | |
| Quality Drives | 9 | 72 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 93 | 51 |
| PFF Coverage | 118 | 81 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 30 | 36 |
| Middle 8 | 87 | 58 |
| Seconds per Play | 24.4 (22) | 27.5 (81) |
| Rush Rate | 56% (45) | 41% (128) |
How to Bet My Baylor vs. LSU Pick
I see a lot of advantages for the Baylor offense throughout the contest. The Bears finish the regular season top-45 in both Rush and Pass Success Rate.
Not only that, but the Bears were 43rd in Line Yards and 13th in Havoc allowed. Given the state of the LSU roster, I expect the Bears to have their way on the offensive side of the ball.
There’s a reason why the spread has moved so much since it opened: the missing pieces for the Tigers.
If that wasn’t convincing enough, the Bears were also in the top 50 in both Finishing Drives and Quality Drives. I’m a little worried about the Baylor defense, even with all of the opt-outs for LSU.
The Bears ranked outside the top 70 in many defensive metrics, including 118th in PFF Coverage grade. I know Nussmeier won't have his usual weapons and offensive linemen, but he's talented enough to take advantage of a bad Baylor secondary.
Baylor also ranked 22nd in seconds per play, so I expect it to move up and down the field quickly.
The best betting approach for the matchup is the Baylor team total over. This will eliminate the worry of the Baylor secondary getting exposed, and we could solely focus on the advantages the Bears have on the offensive side of the ball.
We saw how well the Bears offense was clicking down the stretch, and it nearly led them to the Big 12 Championship Championship.
Quarterback Sawyer Robertson improved as the year passed, so I expect him to do a lot of damage on New Year's Eve.
Don’t overthink this; the Bears will have a significant motivational and talent advantage over the Tigers.
Pick: Baylor Team Total Over 31.5
Baylor vs. LSU Channel, How to Watch, Streaming, Location, Start Time
| Location: | NRG Stadium, Houston, TX |
| Date: | Tuesday, Dec. 31 |
| Kickoff Time: | 3:30 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | ESPN |
Baylor vs. LSU Betting Trends
Baylor vs. LSU Weather
