The Bowling Green Falcons take on the Kent State Golden Flashes in Kent, Ohio. Kickoff is set for 12 p.m. ET on ESPN+.
Bowling Green is favored by -7.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -300. The total is set at 48.5 points.
Here’s my Bowling Green vs. Kent State prediction and college football picks for Saturday, October 25.
Bowling Green vs Kent State Prediction
- Bowling Green vs. Kent State Pick: Under 47.5
My Kent State vs. Bowling Green best bet is on both teams to go under the total. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
Bowling Green vs Kent State Odds
| Bowling Green Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-7 -110 | 48 -110o / -110u | -290 |
| Kent State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+7 -110 | 48 -110o / -110u | +235 |
- Bowling Green vs Kent State Spread: Bowling Green -7, Kent State +7
- Bowling Green vs Kent State Over/Under: 48 Points
- Bowling Green vs Kent State Moneyline: Bowling Green -290, Kent State +235
Bowling Green vs Kent State College Football Betting Preview
Bowling Green Falcons Betting Preview: Pyne's Passing Sorely Missed
Ask me back in May about the following statement, and I'd have vehemently denied ever writing it, much less ever thinking it:
Bowling Green's offense just doesn't click without Drew Pyne.
Silly as the statement may come across to fellow Pyne-deniers, the forward pass isn't even an option under backup Lucian Anderson III.
In a 27-6 throttling at the hands of Central Michigan at home, Anderson tossed two interceptions, no touchdowns, and CMU attempted five total passes. The Falcon offense is truly a tough watch without a passing game.
The offensive equation is pretty simple: When the run game hums, BG is a tough team to beat in the MAC. When it doesn't, there's not much resistance.
The Falcons field one of the better defenses, especially against the run — not just in the MAC but in the Group of Five as a whole.
Cincinnati and Louisville are the only two teams to score 30-plus points with their offenses (Ohio returned an interception for 35 total points), and the latter — the team that just beat Miami — was held to four field goals.
Talented passers can move the ball effectively through the air, but BG buckles down in the red zone, holding opponents to just a 75% score rate (touchdown or field goal, 12th-best in the country). The bend-don't-break approach works here.
Against its remaining schedule, one that includes 106th-ranked Buffalo at home and nobody inside the top 125, the Falcons are on a direct path to 8-4.
We'll revisit that in bowl season, when the Falcons face a Sun Belt or Mountain West foe.
Kent State Golden Flashes Betting Preview: Making Progress
On the one hand, Kent State is better than expected. On the other hand, it only beat Merrimack's 90th-ranked FCS program and UMass — a team currently ranked behind 11 Division II schools, per SP+.
The Golden Flashes don't really rate much better than last year (save for a point or two), but the bar has been moved, and Kent looks a little better by comparison.
But the measuring stick should be looked at, too. So far, Kent State has played Florida State, Oklahoma and Texas Tech — all teams ranked in the top 10 at some point this year — and Toledo and Buffalo, a couple of the highest-rated teams in the MAC.
Kent's schedule ranks 21st in toughness, per FPI, ahead of teams like Washington, Ole Miss and Oklahoma.
Kent State's result against Buffalo is shed in a different light considering Buffalo tried to give UMass its first FBS win in multiple years but was handed the game by the Minutemen themselves. The rest of its games were completely non-competitive.
Quarterback remains a mess. Due in part to blowouts, four different arms have attempted 10 passes.
Starter Dru DeShields doesn't put the ball in harm's way with only two interceptions against 10 touchdown passes, but he doesn't take risks, either (66.7% adjusted completion, fourth-worst in MAC).
Serviceable? Sure. But he's not a needle-mover behind center.
Interim coach Mark Carney deserves a lot of credit for the mess he inherited late this spring. The team competes as much as it can, and all arrows in the program point up for Carney. Players seem to respond to him, and Kent State didn't just roll over to start the year.
But feel-good coaches and stories don't change the fact that Kent State is the FBS's second-worst program with all of two competitive games against FBS foes this year.
Bowling Green vs Kent State Pick, Betting Analysis
Kent State opened as a +9.5 underdog, but that dropped to +7 with Bowling Green's quarterback situation still in flux. The point total dropped from 49.5 points to 47.5.
Since 1920, Bowling Green and Kent State have played for the Anniversary Award. It's the MAC's fourth-oldest rivalry, and the Falcons and Flashes are each other's most frequent occurring rival; they've played more times than either's primary rival (Toledo for Bowling Green, Akron for Kent State). Bowling Green owns the all-time series, 62-24-6.
Anyway, I digress.
Outside of the (very) occasional explosive pass play, Kent State's offense has turned in a whole lot of nothing this season.
Excluding the 42-6 win over UMass, which was one of the worst efforts from a football team I have ever seen, Kent State averages 13.8 points per game.
On the other side, Bowling Green's offense is inoperable without a forward pass from Pyne. Pyne is reportedly making progress this week, but he may not play again.
The Falcons defense is more than capable of applying the brakes to the Flashes offense.
Barring defensive touchdowns and kicks returned to the house (which is a semi-frequent occurrence with these teams in 2025), there's just no offense to go around.
Both defenses have some form of a backbone, so the only play here is under the total, even though it has come down from open.
Pick: Under 47.5
