The Bowling Green Falcons take on the UMass Minutemen in Amherst, Mass. Kickoff is set for 4:30 p.m. ET on ESPNU.
Bowling Green is favored by 14.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -600. UMass, meanwhile, enters as a +14.5 underdog and is +450 on the moneyline to pull off the upset. The over/under sits at 45 total points.
Here’s my Bowling Green vs. UMass prediction and college football picks for Tuesday, November 25.
Bowling Green vs UMass Prediction
- Bowling Green vs. UMass Pick: Bowling Green -14.5
My UMass vs. Bowling Green best bet is on the Falcons to cover the spread. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
Bowling Green vs UMass Odds
| Bowling Green Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-14.5 -110 | 45 -110o / -110u | -600 |
| UMass Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+14.5 -110 | 45 -110o / -110u | +450 |
- Bowling Green vs UMass Spread: Bowling Green -14.5, UMass +14.5
- Bowling Green vs UMass Over/Under: 45 Points
- Bowling Green vs UMass Moneyline: Bowling Green -600, UMass +450
Bowling Green vs UMass College Football Betting Preview
Bowling Green Falcons Betting Preview: Looking for Offensive Boost
What was supposed to be a favorable end to a season turned into a flat five-game losing streak for Bowling Green. A little over a month ago, the Falcons sat 3-3 with an upset win over rival Toledo.
But consecutive losses to Central Michigan, Kent State, Buffalo, Eastern Michigan and Akron — three of those as favorites —ended the Falcons’ bowl hopes and long-shot dreams at a MAC Championship.
Head coach Eddie George let go of his offensive coordinator midway through the losing streak. But without competent play at quarterback, any OC’s job is near impossible.
Hunter Najm got the last two starts in place of an injured Drew Pyne (and Lucien Anderson… and Baron May), and he was dreadful. Last game, Najm completed just 9-of-26 passes with a pair of back-breaking interceptions that sealed a 19-16 loss to Akron.
BG ranks 123rd in Points Per Drive, 126th in Success Rate and 130th in Quality Drive Rate. Even outside of quarterback, there’s almost nothing to get excited about.
Defensively, BG holds its own. A team hasn’t scored 30 on the Falcons since September (Ohio), and that was the lone time a non-power conference team found that many against this defense.
Against a run-heavy schedule that includes Central Michigan, Liberty and Ohio, Bowling Green excelled, ranking 21st in Rushing Success Rate allowed at 37.5%.
Second-level defenders Gideon ESPN Lampron and Kal-El Pascal help clean up on the ground thanks to aggressive play. Lampron ranks second nationally with 59 run stops and sixth with 86 total tackles.
There are some disruptors up front, too, including George’s own son, Eriq, and Myles Bradley. Despite early injuries to leaders like Dorian Pringle, BG’s depth chart showed up on defense this year.
The weakness of this defense comes in the secondary, which plays off its receivers in zone (allowing easy completions) and gets beaten over the top by more talented receivers in man. The pass rush does apply pressure but doesn’t always get home.
This season is a lost one for Bowling Green, but the future program outlook is positive. Priority No. 1 is finding an upgrade at quarterback, but much of the depth chart is young and should return next year, especially on defense.
UMass Minutemen Betting Preview: Disaster on Both Ends
Frankly, UMass isn’t a Division I-quality football team. Not in the FBS, not in the FCS. According to SP+, UMass ranks 221st out of 265 D-I programs, and Sagarin has UMass at 242nd.
It’s a fatal combination of lacking Division-I talent and depth, plus a handful of injuries to the roster throughout the season, especially on defense.
As a result, UMass is 0-11 outright and 3-8 against the spread despite being lined as 30-plus point underdogs to MAC foes.
The Minutemen turned to youngster AJ Hairston at quarterback early on, and he has been dreadful. They rotate in Utah transfer Brandon Rose, who was deemed bad enough to have been benched for Hairston in the first place. Grant Jordan will also sometimes appear as a rushing threat.
Very few metrics don’t paint UMass as the worst offense in the country; it ranks dead last in the FBS in scoring, Points Per Drive, EPA Per Play and Success Rate.
The lone success found while controlling the ball is the occasional explosive run from Jordan or running back Brandon Hood.
Against FBS foes, UMass broke 14 points once in a wild 28-21 home loss to Buffalo (which included 176 total yards of explosive touchdowns on two plays).
This is a team that doesn’t generate quality drives (131st) or capitalize on them (136th in Points Per Quality Drive).
Defensively, UMass isn’t any better.
Three straight opponents scored 40-plus, including Northern Illinois, which ranks 120th in PPD, and Akron (113th). Seven opponents on the season breached 40. Only two FBS foes failed to reach 30 on the season: Western Michigan and Buffalo.
There’s no one way UMass fails. It doesn’t turn the ball over an egregious amount, nor does it commit all that many penalties; rather, it just does nothing and loses control of the game.
This is as bad a team as we’ve seen in the FBS lately. Worse than last year’s Kent State, worse than 2021 UConn.
The worst part is there’s no core of this roster to give it any sort of optimism moving into 2026 either.
Bowling Green vs UMass Pick, Betting Analysis
Take note of the kick time here. It’s an odd window – 4:30 p.m. ET on Tuesday.
UMass opened as a +16.5 home underdog but dropped to +14.5 over the weekend. Weather should cooperate for it being late November, with temperatures in the 40s and no notable wind or precipitation.
Bowling Green’s three wins this year came by an average of 11.3 points per game and included FCS Lafayette, Liberty (not bowl eligible) and Toledo (which has dropped more games as a 10-plus point favorite in the FBS over the last five years).
Not exactly a championship resume. It also hasn’t found 30 points at all this year.
So, it makes sense why the Minutemen would take some action at home in a low-scoring affair. It’s good betting practice.
But let’s not lose track of who we’re dealing with in this game.
Akron had not scored 30 against FBS competition until it played UMass (44 points); NIU was the second-worst scoring offense in the country until it played UMass (45 points); Kent State hadn’t scored 40 in three years until it dropped 42 points on UMass. Shoot, Ohio scored 42 points in a swimming pool last game.
This is a historically terrible defense capable of making the nation’s most stagnant offense look like an efficient unit.
On the other end, Bowling Green fields a formidable defense capable of shutting down Hairston, Rose, Jordan and whoever else UMass decides to trot out on the field. UMass has scored 10 or fewer points seven times this year.
Yes, a low-scoring affair and multi-touchdown home underdog points to taking that home ‘dog. But don’t overthink this one.
UMass is as bad a team that’s looking forward to the end of a historically bad 0-11 season against a team looking to end the season on a high note.
Bowling Green is bad, but don’t underestimate UMass' ability to make the Falcons look great.
Pick: Bowling Green -14.5 (Play To Any Number)
Bowling Green vs UMass Betting Trends
