We have a good ol’ ACC battle with the California Golden Bears (6-5, 2-5) heading to Texas to face the SMU Mustangs (10-1, 7-0).
Bowl-eligible Cal are winners of three out of its last four, including a tight victory against Stanford, 27-24. It’s been a rough season for the Golden Bears, with all five losses coming by one possession.
It seems as if SMU came out of nowhere, and it would be undefeated if not for a three-point loss to BYU. The Ponies handled Virginia last week with ease, 33-7, and Kevin Jennings had himself a day, completing 75% of his passes for 323 yards, a couple of passing touchdowns, and a rushing score.
Where does the betting value lie? SMU is a 13.5-point favorite on the spread with a 57-point over/under.
Read more for my Cal vs. SMU predictions and college football picks.
Cal vs SMU Prediction
- Cal vs SMU Pick: Cal +13.5
My Cal vs SMU best bet is on the Golden Bears to cover the spread, with the best line currently available at Caesars, according to our live NCAAF odds page.
Cal vs SMU Odds
| California Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+12.5 -110 | 54.5 -110o / -110u | +375 |
| SMU Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-12.5 -110 | 55.5 -110o / -110u | -500 |
- Cal vs SMU Spread: Cal +12.5 · SMU -12.5
- Cal vs SMU Over/Under: 54.5
- Cal vs SMU Moneyline: Cal +375 · SMU -500
Cal vs SMU Preview
California Golden Bears Betting Preview: Keeps It Close
Fernando Mendoza has been a revelation for Cal this season. The sophomore quarterback completed 68% of his passes for over 3000 yards and 16 touchdowns.
Mendoza’s connection with tight end Jack Endries and receivers Nyziah Hunter and Trond Grizzell have been crucial to Cal’s 29th Pass Play Success Rate ranking.
The one thing that has stifled this program is the lack of explosive plays. The pass and run games are virtually un-explosive, as it’s ranked 126th in Pass explosiveness.
Jaydn Ott’s struggles and injuries have hampered Cal’s run game. The Bears relied on Ott to continue the ACC-leading 1300 rushing yards he amassed last season. The problem is he’s been battling injuries, only averaging 2.9 yards per carry.
Jaivian Thomas has picked up the slack, averaging 6.6 with seven trips to the endzone, so he at least has been a positive in the backfield.
There are a ton of studs on this defense led by Nohl Williams, who leads the nation in interceptions with seven. Additionally, linebackers Teddye Buchanan and Xavier Carlton have each registered 11 tackles-for-loss, with Carlton tying for 11th with nine sacks.
SMU Mustangs Betting Preview: Defense Doesn't Pony Up
In his first season as a full-time starter, Jennings has immersed himself as a big-time player. Completing 67% of his passes for over 2500 yards with a 2.4 touchdown to interception ratio. Not only that, he leads the ACC in yards gained per completion.
It doesn’t hurt that there is a solid core of receivers in Roderick Daniels Jr., Key’Shawn Smith, and tight end RJ Maryland. Daniels, especially, is the star of this bunch, creating separation at an elite level and generating 19 yards per catch.
The star of this team for me, though, is running back Breshad Smith, who is incredibly dynamic and can easily run for distance. There aren't many efficient rushers behind Smith, so SMU isn’t as high in Rush Success Rate.
Smith averages 6.2 yards per carry and is 20th in the nation in rushing yards at 1089.
What’s made SMU so dominant is its defense. The Ponies are 33rd in Havoc and have one of the nation's most dominant and explosive pass rushes. Defensive ends Isaiah Smith and Jahfari Harvey combine for 12 sacks and 16.5 TFL.
Not only that, they’re 10th in Pass Play Success Rate allowed and have a dominant pair of safeties in Isaiah Nwokobia and Ahmaad Moses, each with three picks.
Cal vs SMU Pick & Prediction
The spread listed is 13.5, which is way too much.
Given that Cal has never lost a game by more than eight points this season and its dominant defense, I can’t see this being a blowout.
It can be anyone’s game. Cal nearly beat Miami, Pittsburgh and NC State, and SMU’s only loss of the season was at home. Despite the records of both programs, we can genuinely expect anything.
SMU is the more well-rounded team, but Cal has a hard time closing games. That makes me think that SMU can still pull this out by a one-possession game.
With both defenses excelling, I think this will be a tight game, so take Cal’s spread.
Pick: Cal +13.5
Cal vs SMU Start Time, Channel, Streaming, How To Watch
| Location: | Gerald J. Ford Stadium, Dallas, TX |
| Date: | Saturday, Nov. 30 |
| Kickoff Time: | 3:30 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | ESPN2 |
Cal vs. SMU will be played at Gerald J. Ford Stadium in Dallas, Texas, on Saturday, Nov. 30, at 3:30 p.m. ET. The game can be streamed live on ESPN2.
Cal vs SMU Betting Trends
Cal vs SMU Weather
