It's the LA Bowl hosted by Rob Gronkowski, and we've got an intriguing matchup between a couple of West Coast teams. The UNLV Rebels (10-3, 6-1 Mountain West) will take on the Cal Golden Bears (6-6, 2-6 ACC) with many opt-outs and uncertainties worth monitoring before kickoff on Wednesday, Dec. 18.
Kickoff is set for 9 p.m. ET on ESPN.
With so many question marks, be sure to check out Stuckey's article containing all potential opt-out/injury news for each bowl game. He updates it multiple times a day, making it an absolute must-read resource if you plan on betting on bowl matchups.
Currently, oddsmakers have UNLV as a -3 favorite with the over/under set at 48.
Let's dive into my Cal vs. UNLV predictions and college football picks for Wednesday, Dec. 18.
Cal vs UNLV Prediction
- Cal vs. UNLV Pick: Under 48
My UNLV vs. Cal best bet is for both teams to stay under the total, with the best line currently available at BetRivers, according to our live NCAAF odds page.
Cal vs UNLV Odds
| Cal Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3 -110 | 48 -110 / -110 | +125 |
| UNLV Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3 -110 | 48 -110 / -110 | -150 |
- Cal vs UNLV Spread: Cal +3 (-110) · UNLV -3 (-110)
- Cal vs UNLV Over/Under: 48 Points
- Cal vs UNLV Moneyline: Cal +125 · UNLV -150
Cal vs UNLV Preview
California Golden Bears Betting Preview: Plenty of Portal Questions
The biggest news for the Golden Bears is that starting quarterback Fernando Mendoza is entering the portal, so he will not be under center. QB Chandler Rogers is recovering from an injury, so CJ Harris or freshman EJ Caminong may get the start.
From what head coach Justin Wilcox has told reporters, we could see a heavy dosage of Caminong, which would significantly downgrade the Cal offense. We'll see a heavy dose of run plays on offense, which is the strength of the Rebels defense.
Not only are the Bears shorthanded at quarterback, but they'll also need leading wide receiver Nyziah Hunter, who entered the transfer portal. I can't imagine they'll throw the ball very often here.
Offensive lineman Matthew Wykoff isn't playing either, which is detrimental to the Bears' running game. The offense is in rough shape, and given the Rebels' market line movement on Tuesday afternoon, I wouldn't be surprised to see them with a lot more starters playing than many thought.
Defensively, the Cal defense was underrated throughout the season. It had some poor showings against Syracuse and Stanford down the stretch, but its defensive metrics suggest that it's a much better unit than people perceive.
The Golden Bears were excellent at preventing rush explosives, and they were a supreme unit at creating long average third-down distances for opposing offenses.
We should see a strong defensive effort and a more inspired effort from the defense after a couple of weeks off.
UNLV Rebels Betting Preview: Will White Play?
The Rebels had a terrific season in Las Vegas, but they unfortunately ran out of gas before the Mountain West Championship game. They had a chance to spoil Boise State's season and potentially earn a College Football Playoff berth, but that's the least of their worries heading into the bowl game.
First and foremost, head coach Barry Odom departed for Purdue, and Dan Mullen will take over next season but won't coach in the bowl game. It's also worth noting that offensive coordinator Brennan Marion — the inventor of the Go-Go offense — won't coach in this game after he was passed over for the head-coaching position.
There's a significant portal and opt-out news worth monitoring, especially for star wide receiver Ricky White III. White is easily the best offensive player besides QB Hajj-Malik Williams, so he's a significant question mark heading into the matchup.
Starting cornerback Tony Grimes will play despite entering the portal, which is huge for the defense. However, potential NFL Draft pick Jalen Catalon is likely to opt out, which would impact the secondary. However, that hasn't been announced as of writing.
Even though Odom is no longer the head coach, there are rarely fewer opt-outs and transfer portal players. This could be an opportunity for players who plan on returning to showcase what they've got for Mullen.
The problem is that I can't back the Rebels without knowing if White's playing. He's a massive part of the offense, and UNLV is significantly worse without him.
The Rebels offense thrived on explosive plays on the ground and through the air during the season. However, the Bears do a great job of limiting rush explosives, and without White, I could see the Rebels lacking any air offense.
With coaching changes and some key players not playing, it's best to stay away from a side. Given the strengths of the Bears defense, the Rebels offense will struggle to score.
Cal vs UNLV Pick & Prediction
I love the under in this spot. Given the uncertainty surrounding opt-out and transfer portal moves, it's an excellent opportunity to sell both offenses.
Both defenses may be at less than 100% full strength, but their strengths should be able to contain what both offenses will do.
White hasn't been specific about playing for the Rebels, and with all of the changes on the coaching staff, we could see a completely different offensive scheme.
I expect both teams to focus on their run games, especially with Mendoza out of the picture for the Bears.
I don't expect a lot of fireworks, and the Bears will struggle to move the ball. We should see them slowing the game down with their freshman quarterback, which will limit the number of offensive possessions in the game.
Pick: Under 48 (Play to 45.5)
Cal vs UNLV Start Time, TV Channel, Location, How to Watch
| Location: | SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, CA |
| Date: | Wednesday, Dec. 18 |
| Kickoff Time: | 9 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | ESPN |
Cal takes on UNLV in the LA Bowl on Wednesday, Dec. 18 at 9 p.m. ET on ESPN.
