The Charlotte 49ers take on the South Florida Bulls in Tampa, FL. Kickoff is set for 7 p.m. ET on ESPN2.
USF is favored by -28 points on the spread with a moneyline of -5000. The total is set at 55 points.
Here’s my Charlotte vs. USF prediction and college football picks for Friday, October 3.
Charlotte 49ers vs USF Bulls Prediction, Picks
- Charlotte vs. USF Pick: Charlotte +28
My USF vs. Charlotte best bet is on the 49ers to cover the spread. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
Charlotte vs USF Odds, Line, Spread
| Charlotte Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+27.5 -102 | 55.5 -110o / -110u | +1800 |
| USF Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-27.5 -120 | 55.5 -110o / -110u | -5000 |
- Charlotte vs USF Spread: Charlotte +27.5, USF +27.5
- Charlotte vs USF Over/Under: 55.5
- Charlotte vs USF Moneyline: Charlotte ML +1800, USF ML -5000
Charlotte vs USF College Football Betting Preview
Charlotte 49ers Betting Preview
Charlotte continues to search for consistency on offense, ranking 106th in EPA per play (-0.06) and generating just -4.50 EPA per game (108th nationally).
The 49ers do run a respectable 70 plays per game (41st), but efficiency remains the issue, with a 40.1% success rate (95th) and poor average starting field position (own 27-yard line, 96th).
The 49ers can't run the ball, ranking 136th nationally in EPA/Rush. However, the Bulls' defense has been slightly exposed against the run, which could lead to them extending drives.
They've been bludgeoned with offensive line injuries, which is partially why their run game has been non-existent. They'll have to rely on quarterback Conner Harrell's arm, who's completed 67% of his passes thus far.
Defensively, Charlotte has struggled to slow opponents, primarily through the air. Against the pass, the 49ers allow a 48.2% success rate (120th) and rank 100th in EPA/play allowed (0.15).
The run defense has been slightly steadier, holding teams to a 43% success rate (105th), but overall, the unit is bottom-tier in preventing explosive plays. That is key for the matchup, especially since weather concerns are worth monitoring.
Charlotte has no chance of pulling off an upset, but I think the number is far too significant, given the uncertainty of the weather forecast.
South Florida Bulls Betting Preview
USF is coming off a bye week, which gives it a chance to reset and recover ahead of this matchup. Offensively, the Bulls have been far more efficient than Charlotte, particularly through the air.
When passing, they generate 0.14 EPA/play (59th), with a 43.4% success rate (73rd). However, the run game lags significantly, ranking 123rd in rushing success rate (35.6%) and 102nd in EPA/play (-0.06), leaving the offense somewhat one-dimensional.
Quarterback Byrum Brown is perhaps one of the most critical impact players in the Group of 5, and his health is crucial for the Bulls' success for the remainder of the season. He should be able to get going on the ground against an weak Charlotte run defense, and their secondary has also been exposed a ton.
Defensively, USF has held up much better against the pass than the run. The Bulls allow just -0.12 EPA/play through the air (42nd) with a 40.4% success rate (65th), ranking in the top 40 nationally in pass defense efficiency.
Against the run, however, they're middle of the pack, allowing a 41% success rate (90th) and 0.00 EPA/play (82nd).
The Bulls should do their part on both sides of the ball, but with many wind concerns, I expect them to be one-dimensional for most of the game. That should lead to a lot of bleeding clock, which could make this game stall in the second half.
Charlotte vs USF Friday Pick to Bet
The weather is the X-factor here. Heavy winds and rain are projected to slow down both offenses, but the impact is bigger for USF, which has leaned on its passing efficiency (0.14 EPA/play, 59th nationally) to move the ball.
If forced into a run-heavy script, the Bulls will rely on a ground game that ranks 123rd in success rate (35.6%), limiting their ability to separate on the scoreboard as much. They should score, but the market overreacts a bit about how bad Charlotte has been.
Charlotte’s offense must assemble a couple of scoring drives to stay within the number. It's a tall task, but I think the 49ers can move the ball on the ground a bit against this Bulls' defensive front that has struggled to stop the run.
Still, in a lower-possession, slower-paced match, the 49ers can hang around simply by avoiding mistakes and leaning on their steadier run defense.
USF’s bye week and defensive strength make it the rightful favorite, but 28 points is a massive number in a game that projects to play under the total due to the weather.
Hold your nose, folks. We're diving deep into the dumpster with Charlotte. I'll take the +28 pre-game but will look to add more live in the second half when I expect the Bulls to be run-heavy due to the weather to run the clock out.
Picks: Charlotte +28 · Charlotte 2H Spread
