College Football Best Bets
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
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Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAF Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
College football bowl season is here.
Saturday's FBS slate features two games: the annual Army vs. Navy showdown and South Alabama vs. Western Michigan in the Salute to Veterans Bowl.
The Army-Navy matchup is one of the most intriguing matchups between the two programs over the past few seasons thanks to Army's AAC title and Navy's high-level play earlier in the season.
A few hours later, South Alabama vs. Western Michigan will be a great way to kick off bowl season in what was formerly known as the Camellia Bowl.
I broke down both games and made a pick — or a few picks — for both games.
Continue reading for my college football picks in my Action Network betting card for the NCAAF slate on Saturday, December 14.
Army vs. Navy Best Bet
The Navy Midshipmen (8-3, 6-2 AAC) take on the AAC champion Army Black Knights (11-1, 8-0) in their annual college football clash on Saturday, Dec. 14. Kickoff is set for 3 p.m. ET on CBS.
The Army-Navy game, first played in 1890, is crucial in determining the winner of the Commander-In-Chief Trophy, awarded to the best service academy team.
With both Army and Navy beating Air Force earlier in the season, the Black Knights will look to retain the trophy for the 6th time in the last 8 years.
With the game being played at the Washington Commanders' home stadium in Landover, Maryland, Army enters as a -6 favorite with the over/under set at 39.
Let's take a look at my college football predictions and Army vs. Navy picks for Saturday, Dec. 14.
Navy Midshipmen
The Navy offense was humming through the first half of the season, winning six straight with 50-burgers against Charlotte and Memphis.
Head coach Brian Newberry hired offensive coordinator Drew Cronic to give the Midshipmen a spark under quarterback Blake Horvath.
Navy soon became one of the best offenses in the country at the midpoint of the season with a heavy rush rate at 76%, using a hybrid triple option with occasional play-action passes.
Eight different players have scored a rushing touchdown for the Midshipmen offense, but the usage of Horvath and running back Alex Tecza created 50 missed tackles and a combined 20 touchdowns.
The 30-personnel offense changed under Cronic this season, implementing a tight end to run 31 on 95% of offensive plays this season.
Horvath is primarily seen under center or in the shotgun, leading an offense that finished top-25 in Stuff Rate, Havoc Allowed and EPA.
While Success Rate has been an issue for this offense, the ability to create explosives at any moment has been critical to the Navy's success.
Cronic has a balanced attack from a run concept perspective, providing a near-even distribution of attempts from pulling linemen to fullback dive and even trick plays.
Navy Run Concepts – Sport Source Analytics
Defensively, Navy's three-man front has struggled in both standard and passing downs. The Midshipmen have allowed methodical drives to opponents using the rush, finishing 100th in efficiency.
Passing downs have been troublesome from an explosives standpoint as well. Navy ranks 113th in EPA allowed when opposing offenses get behind schedule.
One of the brightest spots for Newberry's defense comes against the pass, ranking 26th in creating contested catches. In 117 play-action passing attempts by opponents, Navy has a respectable 48% Success Rate with a positive EPA.
Army Black Knights
Army entered the AAC Championship game as a home five-point underdog. The spread was never in question, as the Black Knights led, 21-7, at halftime and allowed the Green Wave just a single touchdown in the second half.
The roster seemed rejuvenated after multiple non-covering games down the stretch. Both quarterback Bryson Daily and running back Kanye Udoh combined for 45 rushing attempts and 184 yards for five total touchdowns.
Despite Tulane boasting a top-20 rush defense from an efficiency perspective, there was no resistance to the Black Knights' average of 5.9 yards per rush attempt.
The offense has changed under coordinator Cody Worley, moving from the occasional two-running back set to a true 31 personnel.
More than 88% of snaps from the Army offense come with three running backs behind Daily lined up in the pistol, gun, or under center.
The wishbone and I-formation triple option is now history for the Army offense, which uses a balanced mix of zone read, man and fullback dive to recreate the triple in space.
Every run concept for Army is successful, but man and counter have created the most explosives on the season.
The 3-3-5 defense has been poor against the rush all season, posting a bottom-25 rank in efficiency and Line Yards.
The Black Knights have struggled to produce any success against zone read, while opponents using power concepts have produced a high number of explosives.
Defending the play-action pass has also been troublesome for a nickel defense that has one of the lower numbers of total pass breakups of any team in FBS.
Opponents using play-action have generated an explosive play on 19% of attempts.
Army vs. Navy Pick
Weather should not be a factor in Landover, with no precipitations and winds below 10 miles per hour. Considering both offenses boast top-25 rankings in Havoc Allowed, the handicap lands on the defense best suited to defend the opponent's run concepts and play-action pass.
Army runs the highest percentage of run concepts using outside zone and man, as the latter has produced a monster 25% explosive play rate.
Navy has not defended man concepts well all season, generating a low 35% Success Rate while giving up an explosive on 15% of attempts.
There's reason to believe Udoh will generate explosives when taking handoffs from Daily, as the sophomore has 64 attempts from man-run concepts with 21 explosive plays.
Navy is also flush with numerous run concepts that have an even distribution from a usage perspective.
The Midshipmen have generated the most success through power and outside zone-read concepts. While both create a high Success Rate in moving the chains, power has generated an explosive play on 20% of attempts.
The Black Knights defense has severely struggled against both run concepts, but outside zone may be the key for Navy. Army has a dreadful 38% Success Rate against outside zone while allowing an explosive on 20% of opponent attempts.
Each offense is expected to move the chains frequently on the ground.
Army has been the more potent offense from a play-action pass perspective, as Daily ranks top-10 in big-time throw rate among all FBS quarterbacks with at least 40 attempts.
Both offenses are set to execute in the extended red zone and the kicking game. Army and Navy rank top-25 in Offensive Finishing Drives, as both teams rank top-five nationally in red zone touchdown rate.
This classic has failed to go over 40 points since 2013, but with new run concepts and personnel on offense, the analytics suggest a total of 48.
The Action Network projection makes Army a 9.5-point favorite against Navy.
With recent common opponents in mind, Army blew out Tulane in the AAC Championship game just three weeks after the Green Wave blanked Navy in Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium.
Army is the desired play at any number under a touchdown in this contest.
Props should be considered for the Army-Navy game considering the explosives expected from both running games. Both teams rank top-three in red-zone rushing touchdown rate, giving value to Army's Udoh in goal-line attempts with an already decorated record in explosive plays.
Udoh lists at +115 for anytime touchdown, as the running back was tapped for two touchdowns in the last service academy game against Air Force.
Udoh also lists at +450 to go over 120 rushing yards, which he crossed against the defenses of Tulane, Air Force, Tulsa and Temple.
Pick: Over 38.5 or Better · Army -6.5 or Better · Kanye Udoh Anytime TD (+115) · Udoh Over 120 Rushing Yards (+450)
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South Alabama vs. Western Michigan Best Bet
The South Alabama Jaguars (6-6, 5-3 Sun Belt) open bowl season against the Western Michigan Broncos (6-6, 5-3 MAC) in the Salute to Veterans Bowl on Saturday, Dec. 14.
The Salute to Veterans Bowl has a history dating back to 2014, when it was known as the Camellia Bowl. The game comes from the historic Cramton Bowl, a venue that dates back to being a spring training facility for the Philadelphia Athletics in 1923.
South Alabama will play in its second bowl inside Cramton, losing the original Camellia Bowl in 2014 to Bowling Green. Head coach Major Applewhite kept bowl season steady in his first season after Kane Wommack left to be the defensive coordinator at Alabama, finishing the season with just enough wins to qualify for a bowl.
Second-year head coach Lance Taylor has brought Western Michigan back to bowl season after last competing in 2021 during the Tim Lester era.
An opener for South Alabama -10 has taken heavy steam on the Western Michigan side. Now, the Jaguars sit at -8 with the over/under at 57.5.
Let's dive into my South Alabama vs. Western Michigan predictions and college football picks for the Salute to Veterans Bowl on Saturday, Dec. 14.
South Alabama Jaguars
Applewhite has called a balanced offense with one of the best Success Rate numbers for both the rush and the pass.
Dual-threat quarterback Gio Lopez threw for over 2,500 yards while collecting 17 touchdowns to just five interceptions over the course of the season. Nearly 60% of his 540 rushing yards came off designed calls using counter and inside zone read concepts.
Joining Lopez on the ground for the potent attack are running backs Kentrel Bullock and Fluff Bothwell. The duo provided over 1,500 yards and 19 touchdowns on the season, each averaging more than 3.8 yards after first contact.
With success at the Group of Five level comes offers in the transfer portal, as Bothwell is expected to be on an SEC roster next season.
South Alabama’s superstar freshman RB Fluff Bothwell is entering the Transfer Portal, per multiple reports.
Bothwell ran for 832 yards and 13 touchdowns this season and is the No. 4 overall running back on PFF 👀🔥 pic.twitter.com/mtdOU2Wnvi
— NCAA Transfer Portal (@RivalsPortal) December 9, 2024
While Bullock expects to play in the Salute to Veterans Bowl, Lopez's health remains in question due to an injury suffered in the finale against Texas State.
Backup quarterback Bishop Davenport was called upon to finish the game against the Bobcats, completing 5-of-7 passes. The Utah State transfer has yet to produce numbers under center, generating a single big-time throw to 7 turnover-worthy plays in his career.
With 141 designed rushing yards on 36 attempts in his career, South Alabama may be a completely ground-dependent team without Lopez.
The portal also snagged another player for the Jaguars on the defensive side of the ball. Cornerback Jordan Scruggs isn't expected to play in the bowl after racking up four pass breakups and an interception.
The freshman was the primary slot corner for South Alabama, leaving a potential area for attack for the Western Michigan offense.
The Jaguars' 2-4-5 personnel prefers Cover 3 with a moderate amount of blitz but has struggled to stop opposing offenses in space.
South Alabama ranks 121st in tackle grading, per PFF, also ranking as one of the worst teams in the nation in creating a contested catch.
Western Michigan Broncos
Western Michigan failed to produce more than 20 points on offense over the final three games. A combination of poor execution in passing downs and tepid results in scoring opportunities kept the Broncos from challenging for a conference title.
Offensive coordinator Walt Bell ran the ball on 60% of snaps using both inside and outside zone read.
Oklahoma State transfer Jaden Nixon was the workhorse running back for most of the season with 12 touchdowns but faded over the final month of play.
The duo of Jalen Buckley and Zahir Abdus-Salaam combined for 11 touchdowns on the season, each going over 100 yards in the finale against Eastern Michigan.
Quarterback Hayden Wolff finished with the lowest turnover-worthy play rate of his five-year career dating back to Old Dominion. The senior threw 17 touchdowns behind an offensive line that excelled in protection and graded as the 15th-best in pass blocking, per PFF.
The transfer portal did get an entry from tight end Blake Bosma, the player with the third-most targets from Wolff.
The defense left plenty to be desired for Western Michigan, which allowed more than 30 points to half of the MAC schedule throughout the season.
The 4-2-5 front consistently failed to stop the opposing rush, posting a low 37% Success Rate against opponents using inside zone.
The transfer portal also took two of the better players away from the defensive line, as edge Corey Walker and interior Anterio Thompson both plan to exit Kalamazoo.
Thompson was used exclusively in passing downs, generating 16 pressures in 206 snaps. Walker led the team with 25 pressures and generated the second-most stops at 22 on the season.
South Alabama vs. Western Michigan Pick
Bowl season is known for wild swings in the betting market, as the Salute to Veterans bowl follows a long history of portal news shaping the market. South Alabama has been faded because of the portal entry of Bothwell and a potential injury to Lopez at quarterback.
With Davenport at quarterback, expect to see a ground game ignite behind Bullock and his 3.9 yards after first contact.
Western Michigan has not defended inside zone from MAC opponents all season, an exponential factor with Walker and Thompson in the portal.
As of writing, first-team all-Sun Belt wide receiver Jamaal Pritchett plans to play in the bowl game. The slot receiver not only has 119 targets and nine receiving touchdowns but also has the ability to take a punt return to the house.
Spoiler alert: Don’t punt to Jamaal Pritchett…
— Oliver Hodgkinson (@ojhodgkinson) September 12, 2024
The primary driver of the Western Michigan offense has been the zone read, a concept South Alabama has middle-of-the-road FBS rankings against.
Expect South Alabama to generate scoring opportunities, while Western Michigan struggles to execute in the extended red zone as it has over the last month.
The Broncos finished 123rd in Defensive Finishing Drives, a number that will not improve against a South Alabama offense with a running back and wide receiver that boosted its Finishing Drives rank to the top 10.
Our Action Network projection places South Alabama at -12, but the loss of Bothwell and potentially Lopez justifies the move in the market.
With the Jaguars still holding an edge on the ground against a Broncos defensive line losing its best players, there's value in a South Alabama team playing just a couple of hours away from campus.
Pick: South Alabama -8 (Play to -10)
