The Colorado State Rams take on the San Diego State Aztecs in San Diego, California, on Friday, Oct. 3. Kickoff is set for 10:30 p.m. ET on CBS Sports Network.
San Diego State is favored by -6 points on the spread with a moneyline of -240. Colorado State, meanwhile, enters as a +200 underdog on the moneyline to pull off the upset. The over/under sits at 41 points.
Here’s my Colorado State vs. San Diego State prediction and college football picks for Friday, October 3.
Colorado State vs San Diego State Prediction
- Colorado State vs. San Diego State Pick: Colorado State +6
My San Diego State vs. Colorado State best bet is on the Rams to cover the spread. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
Colorado State vs San Diego State Odds
| Colorado State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+6 -110 | 41 -110o / -110u | +200 |
| San Diego State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-6 -110 | 41 -110o / -110u | -240 |
- Colorado State vs San Diego State Spread: San Diego State -6, Colorado State +6
- Colorado State vs San Diego State Over/Under: 41 Points
- Colorado State vs San Diego State Moneyline: Colorado State +200, San Diego State -240
Colorado State vs San Diego State Best Bets For Friday's Game
Why Colorado State Can Cover
Colorado State’s offense has struggled to generate efficiency, primarily through the air. The Rams rank 114th in EPA per Pass (-0.14) and have one of the nation’s longest conversion distances at an average of 8.53 yards on third downs (129th).
CSU benched starting quarterback Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi ahead of the Rams’ Week 5 game against Washington State, opting to start Jackson Brousseau, who threw for 188 yards on 19-of-28 passing.
Success on early downs has also been rare, with a 0.00 EPA/Play (84th) and just a 38.5% third- and fourth-down Success Rate (113th).
The ground game is marginally better, producing 0.06 EPA/Rush (54th), but overall, this offense is heavily hampered by poor field position (average starting field position of own 26-yard line, 115th) and inefficient situational football.
Some injuries are concerning on the Rams' side of the ball, and their offensive line depth remains a concern. They haven't been the worst unit in terms of Havoc allowed, but they will be tested against a stout SDSU defense on Friday.
Defensively, Colorado State is more respectable against the run, allowing -0.14 EPA/rush to rank 29th. Still, its secondary has been leaky, giving up 0.17 EPA/Pass (111th) and nearly half of opponent available yards (47.1%).
Its inability to flip field position (opponents average start at own 30-yard line, 124th) adds pressure to a struggling offense.
The struggles in the secondary and special teams are concerning. Still, they will benefit from facing a bad SDSU offense that has benefited from its early-season schedule and turnover luck.
Why San Diego State Can Cover
San Diego State continues to lean on a defense-first identity.
The Aztecs’ pass defense has been one of the best in the country, ranking eighth in EPA/Pass allowed (-0.36) and seventh in early downs EPA/Play (-0.25). They also rank nationally in the top 10 in preventing available yards, holding opponents to just 24.8%, good for sixth nationally.
Although these numbers are impressive, I want to slow down when analyzing their work. They currently rank 132nd in strength of schedule, which could lead to many misleading metrics.
On offense, however, SDSU has battled inefficiency.
The Aztecs rank 113th in EPA/Pass (-0.14) and 87th in EPA/Rush (-0.02) while converting only 35.6% of third downs (116th). Their average starting field position is decent, but they struggle to extend drives and finish possessions.
Their quarterback situation has been unsettled with injuries earlier in the season. Depth at running back has also thinned due to minor knocks. QB Jayden Denegal has been mediocre since taking over, throwing three touchdown passes and three interceptions.
As bad as Colorado State has been defensively, it's been strong against the run, so I could see another game where SDSU struggles to move the ball like last week.
The Aztecs scored only six points in their win over Northern Illinois and were lucky to score 34 points against Cal the previous week, thanks to an abundance of turnovers.
How To Make Colorado State vs San Diego State Picks
This matchup looks like a grinder and a complete mess offensively. San Diego State’s elite pass defense should overwhelm a Colorado State attack that already ranks 114th in EPA/Pass and constantly faces long downs and distances.
Conversely, CSU’s run defense can neutralize SDSU’s mediocre rushing game, forcing the Aztecs to throw, which isn't their strength.
If you're one of those sickos who love disastrous offensive units, this matchup is right up your alley.
Both teams profile as inefficient offensively, with defenses that can dictate tempo. Given Colorado State's poor field position metrics and SDSU’s inability to sustain drives, I can't find a path for either team to generate consistent scoring drives.
I'll stick with fading this San Diego State team and follow the sharp money coming across the counter on the Rams. Right now, they're +6 at most books, which I'm happy to grab in a game with a low total of 40.5.
Pick: Colorado State +6
