The Florida International Panthers take on the UTSA Roadrunners in the First Responder Bowl in Dallas, Texas, on Friday, Dec. 26. Kickoff is set for 8 p.m. ET on ESPN.
UTSA is favored by 6 points on the spread with a moneyline of -225. FIU, meanwhile, enters as a +6 underdog and is +185 on the moneyline to pull off the upset. The over/under sits at 60 total points.
Here’s my FIU vs. UTSA prediction and college football picks for Friday, December 26.
FIU vs UTSA Prediction
- FIU vs. UTSA Pick: Over 59.5 (Play to 61)
My UTSA vs. FIU best bet is on both teams to go over the total. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
FIU vs UTSA Odds
| FIU Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+6 -110 | 60 -110o / -110u | +185 |
| UTSA Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-6 -110 | 60 -110o / -110u | -225 |
- FIU vs UTSA Spread: FIU +6, UTSA -6
- FIU vs UTSA Over/Under: 60 Points
- FIU vs UTSA Moneyline: FIU +185, UTSA -225
FIU vs UTSA College Football Betting Preview
If you want a bowl game where everything points to explosive offense, this is the matchup. Both defenses face problems they aren’t equipped to handle.
Looking at FIU’s offense, its basic EPA numbers aren’t impressive, ranking outside the top 75 in EPA/Rush and EPA/Pass. However, the Panthers do a good job of creating scoring chances.
They rank 37th in starting field position, so they often begin drives a few yards ahead of average, which adds up over the course of a game. This is a real edge against a UTSA defense that struggles early in drives.
That means opponents are moving almost half the field before UTSA can slow them down. That's not ideal against an FIU offense capable of sustaining drives.
The Panthers are horrendous in late-down situations, which actually helps us here. If they go for it on fourth down more often on their own side of the field, it will set up UTSA with short fields.
Longer third downs mean more deep throws, more clock-stopping incompletions or more big gains that change field position. Both quarterbacks should be firing away throughout the matchup.
Looking at UTSA’s offense, the case for the over gets even better. The Roadrunners are set up to take advantage of FIU’s defensive problems.
UTSA sits top-32 in EPA Per Rush, which is tough for an FIU defense that ranks near the bottom in run defense. That’s a big mismatch, but the Roadrunners are also strong on early downs, ranking 18th in early down EPA/Play, one of the best marks in the American Conference.
This kind of offense is hard for a defense that struggles to get set or win at the start of plays.
FIU’s defense also gives up 46.1% of available yards, and lets opponents start with an average field position at their own 29-yard line. That means teams like UTSA often begin drives in a solid spot and turn them into real scoring chances.
The FIU secondary is even weaker now, as the team lost several starting defensive backs and backups to the transfer portal after the regular season.
Bowl games are already tough for inexperienced secondaries, and now they have to face a UTSA offense ranked 44th in EPA Per Pass with a confident veteran in Owen McCown at QB.
FIU’s offense plays fast and is willing to throw on medium and long downs. Its quarterback group is healthier than expected, with both starter Keyone Jenkins and Joe Pesansky available, so they won’t be forced into just running the ball.
On the other side, UTSA’s defense has lost some depth to the transfer portal, making its already weak early-down defense even easier to attack.
FIU vs UTSA Pick, Betting Analysis
Bowl games — especially with many defensive players leaving — often turn into high-scoring affairs because defenses with new faces may experience miscommunication. Plus, a lack of experience can lead to more explosive plays.
I really don't see how we don't end up with a high-scoring affair. Neither defense is good at stopping early-down gains, which leads to more explosive plays.
The mismatches in EPA Per Rush and available yards allowed mean both offenses will often be in good situations while avoiding long, slow drives.
With Jenkins and Pesansky both likely to be available, that lowers my concerns about FIU finding consistent success.
UTSA struggled at times this year, but I expect a strong effort that will lead to many scoring drives here.
Pick: Over 59.5 (Play to 61)
