The Iowa Hawkeyes take on the Rutgers Scarlet Knights in Piscataway, N.J., on Friday, Sept. 19. Kickoff is set for 8 p.m. ET on FOX.
Iowa is favored by 2.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -125. Rutgers, meanwhile, comes in as a +2.5 underdog and sits at +105 to pull off the upset. The over/under is set at 46.5 points.
Here’s my Iowa vs. Rutgers prediction and college football picks for Friday, September 19.
Iowa vs Rutgers Prediction, Pick
- Iowa vs. Rutgers Pick: Iowa -2.5
My Rutgers vs. Iowa best bet is on the Hawkeyes to cover the short spread on the road. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
Iowa vs Rutgers Odds, Spread
| Iowa Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2.5 -112 | 46.5 -112o / -108u | -125 |
| Rutgers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2.5 -108 | 46.5 -112o / -108u | +105 |
- Iowa vs Rutgers Spread: Iowa -2.5, Rutgers +2.5
- Iowa vs Rutgers Over/Under: 46.5 Points
- Iowa vs Rutgers Moneyline: Iowa -125, Rutgers +105
Iowa vs Rutgers Game Preview
Despite a significant upgrade at quarterback, Iowa can't throw the football.
Mark Gronowski was one of the most efficient and dangerous QBs in the FCS throughout his five years at South Dakota State. He headed to Iowa City and has been nerfed in the system.
That lack of a passing attack came appeared against in-state rival Iowa State, where the Hawkeyes scored just 13 points. The other two games are nearly useless data points, coming against FCS Albany and FBS bottom-feeder UMass.
And yet, it's clear that this Iowa passing attack is just not there. Gronowski managed 179 yards against UMass (133rd in defense!) and a total of 127 yards in his first two games.
Iowa's offense doesn't appear to have the same caliber of rushing attack as it has in years past with Kaleb Johnson and Tyler Goodson. With Kamari Moulton injured, it has been Xavier Williams and Jaziun Patterson leading the charge, but there's nothing explosive on offense.
Fortunately for Iowa, Phil Parker orchestrates a top-notch defense year in and year out.
That unit needed to replace multiple captains and its four best players, and still came out and held Iowa State to 16 points and its other opponents to seven points apiece.
The defensive front is incredibly disruptive, recording six sacks and 42 total pressures already.
For the umpteenth year, we're seeing an Iowa half-team with plenty of defensive juice but significant schematic flaws offensively. We know what this team is.
Meanwhile, the early season has not been kind to Rutgers.
Heading into Week 3, key injuries to the offensive line and receiving corps, plus depth concerns on the defensive line and secondary, loom large.
Leading receiver Ian Strong is out for Week 4, as is left tackle Tyler Needham, leaving the Scarlet Knights scrambling to find a left tackle with his two backups also hurt.
Those injury concerns haven't come to roost yet for a 3-0 Rutgers team that notched wins over Ohio, Miami (OH) and FCS Norfolk State.
The Scarlet Knights staved off a late push from Ohio — a team that beat West Virginia and gave Ohio State early fits — and then cruised to the other two victories.
Quarterback Athan Kaliakmanis is a significantly improved passer from the last two seasons. Remove his drops and throwaways, and Kaliakmanis has completed over 80% of his passes on the season with no interceptions or turnover-worthy throws. T
his doesn't come on dink-and-dunk passes, either — he leads all Big Ten quarterbacks with an average depth of target of 10.8 yards.
The boost on offense comes with a hit to the defense under Robb Smith.
Starting defensive lineman Doug Blue-Eli is done for the year, leaving Rutgers with just two starters in the front seven that started on an FBS roster last year.
The Scarlet Knights' pass rush has been average, and the coverage far below it. Add in the depth concerns in the secondary, and we've got some problems in Piscataway.
The road ahead for Rutgers is arduous. It hits the road three times in four weeks, including at Washington and Illinois (Oregon is the lone home game); Rutgers finishes the season at Ohio State and home against Penn State.
How To Make Iowa vs. Rutgers Picks
Rutgers has yet to beat Iowa as a member of the Big Ten (0-4, 1-3 ATS).
Despite that, Rutgers took the first hit from +3 to +2.5 — a half-point, but representative of a 17% shift in win expectancy. If you're aboard the Scarlet Knights train, make sure to wait for that +3.
The general wisdom that started the week here was a low total, so bet the home 'dog. That's sound advice in the long run.
But I have genuine concerns about Rutgers in this game. Despite playing at home, the Scarlet Knights are hurt where they can't be against a relentless Iowa defensive front.
Don't underestimate the disruption that missing a starting left tackle (and his two backups) can have not just on this game, but the game plan entering it.
Offensive coordinator Kirk Ciarrocca will have to adjust his script to account for being thin on the offensive line.
Kaliakmanis is an improved QB, but he still benefits from being on schedule. Last year, when he tried to extend plays and create opportunities, he started to get into trouble.
This one is a simple handicap for me. I'm siding with the team that's healthier and better on both lines of scrimmage, with the better defense.
Rutgers has scored just 17 total points against Iowa in all four historic meetings and was shut out twice, with the last coming in 2022. Parker knows this offense and how to attack it, even with the upgrade at QB.
Pick: Iowa -2.5
