After sitting in perhaps the hottest seat in the country, Dave Aranda now has one of the hottest teams in the country. Baylor smashed its preseason win total and currently sits 7-5, entering Saturday with five straight wins.
Not only have they easily clinched a bowl appearance, but Baylor is technically still alive for the Big 12 Championship game. The Bears must win on Saturday and have at least three of Arizona State, BYU, Colorado, and Iowa State lose.
For that, Baylor has to get through a Kansas team that has been playing great football.
After a rough start, the Jayhawks have won four of their past five games and only lost by two on the road at Kansas State. They sit at 5-6 with a very realistic chance of earning a bowl appearance after a 1-5 start.
The Jayhawks are 1.5-point favorites on the spread with a 61.5-point over/under.
Read on for my Kansas vs Baylor predictions and college football picks.
Kansas vs Baylor Prediction
- Kansas vs. Baylor Pick: Kansas -1.5
My Kansas vs. Baylor best bet is on the Jayhawks to cover the spread, with the best line currently available at bet365, according to our live NCAAF odds page.
Kansas vs Baylor Odds, Spread
| Kansas Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1 -110 | 62 -110 / -110 | -115 |
| Baylor Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1 -110 | 62 -110 / -110 | -105 |
- Kansas vs Baylor Point Spread: Kansas -1 (-110) · Baylor +1 (-110)
- Kansas vs Baylor Total: Over/Under 62
- Kansas vs Baylor Moneyline: Kansas -115 Baylor -105
Kansas vs Baylor Preview
Kansas Jayhawks Betting Preview: Daniels Leading the Way
We finally see the Jalon Daniels we have come to know and love.
After flashing superstar upside in 2022, Daniels battled a back injury for most of last season. He got off to a slow start adjusting to a new offensive coordinator, but in the past six weeks, Daniels has thrown nine touchdown passes with just two turnovers and added four rushing touchdowns. He averaged 48.3 rushing yards per game over that stretch and has regained his electric dual-threat ability.
Joining Daniels in the backfield is one of the most talented backs in the country: Devin Neal.
He is averaging 103 yards per game and has rushed for over 1,000 yards in each of the last three seasons. His 15 touchdowns rank second in the Big 12. Between Daniels and Neal, the Jayhawks rank 10th nationally in Rush Success rate.
A lot of the Jayhawks' early struggles were attributed to the loss of offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki, but you could argue the defense was more of a concern. Kansas allowed at least 30 points in each of their first three conference games but have settled in and only allowed 30+ once in the last five games.
Kansas has been better against the run down the stretch, which is this team’s biggest weakness. But the strength is with its secondary. The Jayhawks have two terrific cornerbacks, Mello Dotson and Cobee Bryant, which they will need in this matchup against Baylor.
Baylor Bears Betting Preview: Robertson Stepping Up
Sawyer Robertson's tremendous play at quarterback has been the biggest reason for Baylor's overachieving expectations. He stepped in after Toledo transfer Dequan Finn went down with an injury and has since thrown 22 touchdowns and seven interceptions.
The Bears spread the ball to receivers Josh Cameron and Ashtyn Hawkins and tight end Michael Trigg. Baylor ranks 26th in Pass Success rate this season. Running the ball is not their strength, but running back Bryson Washington has found success on the ground, averaging 90.2 yards per game with 10 rushing scores. Baylor has scored at least 37 points in four of its last five games.
Dave Aranda is known for his defenses, and after really struggling last year, the Bears have taken a big jump forward this season, especially against the run. They rank 11th in the country in Rushing Success Rate allowed, surrendering just 3.8 yards per carry.
However, Baylor still has issues defending the pass and allows too many teams to cash in when they get into scoring range. The Bears are just 85th in Defensive Finishing Drives on defense. Even during their big winning streak, they allowed over 28 points per game.
Kansas vs Baylor Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Kansas and Baylor match up statistically:
Kansas Offense vs. Baylor Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 10 | 11 |  |
| Line Yards | 6 | 63 | |
| Pass Success | 15 | 74 | |
| Havoc | 23 | 84 | |
| Finishing Drives | 5 | 85 | |
| Quality Drives | 46 | 77 | |
Baylor Offense vs. Kansas Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 53 | 104 | |
| Line Yards | 52 | 125 | |
| Pass Success | 26 | 79 | |
| Havoc | 17 | 36 | |
| Finishing Drives | 43 | 55 | |
| Quality Drives | 73 | 92 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 100 | 98 |
| PFF Coverage | 96 | 115 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 76 | 31 |
| Middle 8 | 109 | 85 |
| Seconds per Play | 29.4 (116) | 24.2 (14) |
| Rush Rate | 60% (17) | 55% (50) |
How To Bet My Kansas vs Baylor Pick & Prediction
These two teams enter the final week of the regular season playing as good of football as anybody in the Big 12 conference. However, I have been more impressed with the turnaround from the Jayhawks.
As good as Baylor has looked, its wins have come against Texas Tech, Oklahoma State, TCU, West Virginia, and Houston, who combine for a 27-28 record. In Iowa State, BYU, and Colorado, Kansas has knocked off three of the top four teams in the conference in the last three weeks. They lost at Arizona State by four and at Kansas State by two points.
Robertson is a good quarterback, but Daniels is much more dangerous with his ability to use his arm and his legs. The Jayhawks' offense has been more balanced. They rank 10th in Rush Success Rate and 15th in Pass Success Rate.
Baylor’s defense has not been able to keep teams off the scoreboard, but they have been able to win in shootouts. Kansas is built to hang with teams, match the Baylor offense, and likely exceed it.
The Jayhawks struggled with turnovers early in the season, giving the ball up 11 times in the first five games. But they have been excellent at protecting the football to turn their season around, turning it over just three times in the last six games.
Daniels will be tough to slow down, and after playing spoiler down the stretch and knocking out three conference title contenders, expect the Jayhawks to keep rolling and qualify for a bowl appearance to finish the regular season strong.
Pick: Kansas -1.5 (Play to -2.5)
Kansas vs Baylor Start Time, Channel, Streaming, How To Watch
| Location: | McLane Stadium |
| Date: | Saturday, Nov. 30 |
| Kickoff Time: | 12 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | ESPN2 |
Kansas vs Baylor will be played at McLane Stadium on Saturday, Nov. 30 at 12 p.m. ET. You can stream the game live on ESPN2.
Baylor vs Kansas Betting Trends
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