The Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns (10-3, 7-1 Sun Belt) take on the TCU Horned Frogs (8-4, 6-3 Big 12) in the New Mexico Bowl on Saturday, Dec. 28. Kickoff is set for 2:15 p.m. ET on ESPN.
Louisiana suffered only 1 loss in conference play and made the Sun Belt Championship before getting dismantled by Marshall, 31-3.
TCU has won 3 straight and most recently toppled Cincinnati, 13-10, to close out the season and finish 8-4.
The Horned Frogs are favored by -10.5 points on the spread with the over/under set at 59 points.
Here are my Louisiana vs. TCU predictions and college football picks for the New Mexico Bowl on Saturday, Dec. 28.
Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns vs TCU Horned Frogs Prediction, Best Bet
- Louisiana vs. TCU Pick: TCU Team Total Over 34.5
My TCU vs. Louisiana best bet is on the Horned Frogs to go over their team total, with the best line currently available at ESPN Bet, according to our live NCAAF odds page.
Louisiana vs TCU Odds, Betting Line, Spread
| Louisiana Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+8.5 -110 | 60.5 -110o / -110u | +270 |
| TCU Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-8.5 -110 | 60.5 -110o / -110u | -350 |
- Spread: TCU -8.5 · Louisiana +8.5
- Over/Under: 60.5 Total Points
- Moneyline: Louisiana ML +270 · TCU ML -350
Louisiana Football vs TCU Football Preview
Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns Betting Preview
Before we dive into some key metrics for the Ragin' Cajuns, we must note that some of their key pieces won't be available for this matchup. Here are some key players who won't suit up, according to Stuckey's opt-out and transfer portal tracker:
- Starting WR Harvey Broussard (signed with Houston)
- Starting WR Robert Williams
- Starting S Tyree Skipper
- Starting TE Terrence Carter
- TE Ty Stamey (138 snaps)
- RB Dre'lyn Washington (207 snaps)
Additionally, quarterback Ben Wooldridge's injury, which was sustained before the conference championship, has kept him sidelined. The original timetable indicated that he'd be available for this contest.
It sounds like he'll return, but if he can't, freshman Daniel Beale will lead the offense.
I have difficulty envisioning Louisiana moving the ball consistently throughout this matchup. During the regular season, Louisiana’s offense was quite successful. The Ragin' Cajuns ranked inside the top 40 in the following offensive metrics:
- Line Yards
- Pass and Rush Success Rate
- Havoc Allowed
- Finishing and Quality Drives
Although those are all encouraging metrics, it is questionable as to whether we are going to see the same success. Without many key offensive starters and a big question mark at quarterback, I'm not quite sure how this offense will perform.
However, my biggest question is the defense.
The Horned Frogs had their ups and downs on offense throughout the season but should be at full strength for this matchup, a bad sign for a Ragin’ Cajuns defense that ranked outside the top 100 in Rush Success Rate, Finishing Drives and Line Yards allowed.
Louisiana ranked 124th in PFF Tackling, which usually correlates with allowing too many big plays.
TCU Horned Frogs Betting Preview
Head coach Sonny Dykes has made it clear that the majority of TCU's roster is going to suit up for this game, a great sign for their chances to perform at a high level.
Receiver Jack Bech sustained an injury earlier in the season and opted out. Meanwhile, receiver Savion Williams has NFL aspirations and also opted out.
That said, I think it is time to talk about how great of a matchup this is for TCU's offense. TCU ranked inside the top 40 in rush and pass success rate, havoc allowed and finishing drives.
The Louisiana defense is excellent in coverage, but I think the Horned Frogs will be able to succeed on the ground. Quarterback Josh Hoover should have no trouble dicing up Louisiana's defense and even though Louisiana's defense did a good job of limiting pass explosives throughout the regular season, they haven't faced a quarterback like Hoover.
Louisiana also gives up a ton of rushing explosives and its defensive line can't stop the run. I see no reason why TCU's offense can't have their way with Louisiana's defense.
On the defensive side of the ball, I have some questions for TCU's defense, especially against the run. Louisiana may not have its starting quarterback, so we'll see it rely on the run more often than not.
Usually, when that happens, you'd like to have a defense built to stop the run. However, the Horned Frogs proved throughout the regular season that they are incapable of doing that. They are one of the worst teams in the nation in Rush EPA per play and rushing explosiveness allowed.
TCU vs Louisiana Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how TCU and Louisiana match up statistically:
Louisiana Offense vs. TCU Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 80 | 97 | |
| Line Yards | 33 | 105 | |
| Pass Success | 14 | 45 | |
| Havoc | 7 | 100 | |
| Finishing Drives | 28 | 87 | |
| Quality Drives | 3 | 75 | |
TCU Offense vs. Louisiana Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 49 | 133 | |
| Line Yards | 93 | 119 | |
| Pass Success | 12 | 51 | |
| Havoc | 37 | 97 | |
| Finishing Drives | 23 | 121 | |
| Quality Drives | 71 | 80 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 124 | 18 |
| PFF Coverage | 28 | 15 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 24 | 108 |
| Middle 8 | 48 | 33 |
| Seconds per Play | 27.4 (80) | 24.9 (30) |
| Rush Rate | 54% (59) | 45% (114) |
Louisiana vs TCU Picks, Best Bets
Given the uncertainty of Louisiana's quarterback situation, I don't feel comfortable laying a large number with TCU. It is encouraging that most of TCU's starters will play, so I think the best betting approach for this matchup is to take TCU's team total over.
If you examine TCU's offensive metrics, you'll see that it is one of the most underrated offenses in the country. Yes, they lacked explosiveness on the ground, but they had one of the best passing attacks in the nation.
I think Hoover will have a terrific day through the air, despite Louisiana’s strength on defense being in the secondary. Also, we could see many more runs from TCU's offense, which will lead to explosives against a bad Louisiana rush defense.
Dykes seems like he wants to pour it on, so I’m going to take that into account.
Pick: TCU Team Total Over 34.5
Louisiana vs TCU Start Time, TV Channel, Location, How to Watch
| Location: | University Stadium, Albuquerque, NM |
| Date: | Saturday, Dec. 28 |
| Kickoff Time: | 2:15 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | ESPN |
Louisiana faces TCU in the New Mexico Bowl in Albuquerque on Saturday, Dec. 28 at 2:15 p.m. ET on ESPN.
Louisiana vs TCU Betting Trends to Know
Louisiana vs TCU Weather Forecast
