Check out my picks and predictions for Memphis vs. West Virginia for the Frisco Bowl on Tuesday December 17.
The Memphis Tigers (10-2, 6-2 AAC) and West Virginia Mountaineers (6-6, 5-4 Big 12) square off in the Scooter’s Coffee Frisco Bowl on Tuesday, Dec. 17. Kickoff is set for 9 p.m. ET and can be seen live on ESPN.
West Virginia fired Neal Brown after a disappointing season that culminated in an embarrassing 52-15 defeat at Texas Tech.
Interim head coach Chad Scott will have his hands full leading a Mountaineers team that has struggled in recent bowl games. In fact, they've gone just 1-7 against the spread in their last 8 postseason games.
Memphis comes in as a -4.5 favorite with the over/under set at 58.5.
The Tigers have taken money all week in the market after opening as 2.5-point underdogs. They've also had minimal attrition in the participation department, as most on their roster has elected to play this game.
Memphis vs West Virginia Prediction
- Memphis vs. West Virginia Pick: Over 58.5
My West Virginia vs. Memphis prediction is on both teams to go over the total, with the best line currently available at BetRivers, according to our live NCAAF odds page.
Memphis vs West Virginia Odds
| Memphis Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-4.5 -115 | 58.5 -110 / -110 | -205 |
| West Virginia Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+4.5 -105 | 58.5 -110 / -110 | +170 |
- Memphis vs West Virginia Spread: Memphis -4.5 (-115) · West Virginia +4.5 (-105)
- Memphis vs West Virginia Over/Under: 58.5 Points
- Memphis vs West Virginia Moneyline: Memphis -205 · West Virginia +170
Memphis vs West Virginia Preview
Memphis Tigers Betting Preview: Little Roster Attrition
Memphis really finished this season strong by winning its last three conference games, including a 34-24 straight-up victory over Tulane on Thanksgiving to conclude the regular season.
Head coach Ryan Silverfield put together a solid campaign, as Memphis racked up double-digit wins in the regular season. If not for a stunning collapse at UTSA, this team may have received more notoriety at this point of the season.
Either way, this is an extremely solid football team.
While things can change rapidly regarding the transfer portal and opt-outs, Memphis appears to have all of its regular contributors ready to go for this game.
Four-year starting quarterback Seth Henigan will see his Memphis career come to a close on Tuesday night. Henigan has been about as consistent as one could be during his four years at the helm, and I believe he'll find great success as the offensive leader tonight.
The Mountaineers defense ranks 133rd nationally in Explosiveness allowed this year and really struggled against the pass. Surrendering 8.96 yards per pass along with 24 passing touchdowns is not good enough against a Memphis group that has four legitimate playmakers at receiver led by Roc Taylor.
Taylor is a big, physical receiver who can stretch the field and make tough contested catches over the middle. He should feast in this one against what will essentially be a second-team secondary.
WVU has two original starters in the secondary out for the season in Ayden Garnes and Aubrey Burks, along with two other cornerbacks either in the portal or considering it.
I'd expect the Tigers to throw all over a West Virginia defense that has been disengaged week after week.
West Virginia Mountaineers Betting Preview: A Roller-Coaster Season
West Virginia has been up and down this year thanks to injuries at quarterback and wide receiver that have contributed to a lack of continuity.
Quarterback Garrett Greene threw for 1,972 yards and 13 touchdowns this season, and the ground game was fairly consistent with 194 yards per game on 4.7 yards per carry.
However, the defense was consistently bad for most of the season. The Mountaineers allowed 410 yards per game and got shredded in the secondary down the stretch.
With the coaching change and opt-outs/portal movement, it's hard to get a definitive picture of what this team will look like in this bowl game.
Defensively, the Mountaineers didn't generate enough pressure in the trench, racking up just 20 sacks and 58 tackles for loss all season.
We saw this play out in two of the final three games of the regular season when they played Baylor and Texas Tech. The front couldn't put pressure on the quarterback, so the secondary was picked apart through the air.
Memphis should be able to hold up on the offensive line here, just as it has for most of the season. The Tigers have yielded only 19 sacks this year, and Henigan has been much more efficient in a clean pocket.
The Mountaineers' secondary has also secured only five interceptions and 29 pass breakups this year. Most decent coverage units have doubled both of those numbers.
The WVU secondary ranks just 128th nationally in EPA Per Pass allowed and 105th in Passing Success Rate allowed. Expect sound decision-making from Henigan as he goes through reads with a clean pocket.
On the other side of the ball, West Virginia has explosiveness at the running back position, as well as an offensive line that contributed to three separate 200-yard rushing efforts down the stretch.
Running backs Jahiem White and CJ Donaldson will have to play a big role against a fairly stout Memphis defensive front that allowed just 77 yards per game on the ground and 3.2 yards per carry over the last month of the season.
It's also worth noting that the Mountaineers did play a much tougher schedule than Memphis and have a reason to show up here to build a little momentum before Rich Rodriguez takes over next season.
Memphis vs West Virginia Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Memphis and West Virginia match up statistically:
Memphis Offense vs. West Virginia Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 35 | 58 | |
| Line Yards | 37 | 40 |  |
| Pass Success | 71 | 129 | |
| Havoc | 9 | 122 | |
| Finishing Drives | 14 | 131 | |
| Quality Drives | 21 | 105 | |
West Virginia Offense vs. Memphis Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 77 | 32 | |
| Line Yards | 59 | 11 | |
| Pass Success | 79 | 70 | |
| Havoc | 97 | 15 | |
| Finishing Drives | 19 | 86 | |
| Quality Drives | 12 | 44 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 91 | 9 |
| PFF Coverage | 84 | 131 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 46 | 15 |
| Middle 8 | 90 | 63 |
| Seconds per Play | 27.9 (93) | 27.8 (92) |
| Rush Rate | 48% (104) | 60% (25) |
Memphis vs West Virginia Pick & Prediction
While the line movement and personnel situations have strongly migrated toward Memphis, there's still reason to pause on the Tigers at the current line.
We've seen a full eight-point move from Memphis with odds going from +3.5 all the way to -4.5, but we still don’t have confirmation on who's in or out for WVU.
Instead, I'll take the over, which sits at 58.5.
Memphis can be susceptible to a game plan that features a heavy dose of run with multiple running backs and a mobile quarterback — something WVU is capable of deploying.
Navy and North Texas found success against this Memphis defense when committing to the ground game and using a running quarterback to add an additional element.
With adequate prep time, I'll firmly call for the Mountaineers move the ball and put points on the board here.
The same should ring true for Henigan and the Tigers against a WVU secondary that has been consistently shredded and enters this one banged up.
We should be in for a fun one in Frisco on Tuesday night.
Pick: Over 58.5
Memphis vs West Virginia Start Time, TV Channel, Location, How to Watch
| Location: | Toyota Stadium, Frisco, TX |
| Date: | Tuesday, Dec. 17 |
| Kickoff Time: | 9 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | ESPN |
Memphis takes on West Virginia in the Scooter's Coffee Frisco Bowl on Tuesday, Dec. 17 at 9 p.m. ET on ESPN.
