The Navy Midshipmen take on the Cincinnati Bearcats in the Liberty Bowl in Memphis, Tennessee, on Friday, Jan. 2. Kickoff is set for 4:30 p.m. ET on ESPN.
Navy is favored by 7 points on the spread with a moneyline of -290. Cincinnati, meanwhile, enters as a +7 underdog and is +230 on the moneyline to pull off the upset. The over/under sits at 54.5 total points.
Here’s my Navy vs. Cincinnati prediction and college football picks for Friday, January 2.
Navy Midshipmen vs Cincinnati Bearcats Predictions, Pick
- Navy vs. Cincinnati Pick: Navy -7 or Better
My Cincinnati vs. Navy best bet is on the Midshipmen to cover the spread. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
Navy vs Cincinnati Odds, Lines, Spread
| Navy Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Point Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-7.5 -105 | 58 -110o / -110u | -290 |
| Cincinnati Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Point Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
+7.5 -115 | 58 -110o / -110u | +235 |
- Navy vs Cincinnati Point Spread: Navy -7.5, Cincinnati +7.5
- Navy vs Cincinnati Time: 58 Total Points
- Navy vs Cincinnati ML: Navy ML -290, Cincinnati ML +235
Navy vs Cincinnati NCAAF Preview
Navy Midshipmen
Throughout college football history, service academies only go as far as their quarterbacks take them.
Blake Horvath etched his name in Midshipmen history this season with one of the best seasons by any individual Navy QB. The senior rushed for nearly 1,200 yards (most among FBS QBs) and 15 touchdowns (second).
The two losses on the schedule came to legitimately great teams — 12-2 North Texas and 10-2 Notre Dame.
Navy beat ranked USF, conference contender Memphis and, most importantly, arch-rival Army. It came from frequent offensive explosions orchestrated by Horvath.
But it wasn't a one-man show.
Running back Alex Tecza (822 yards) and slot back Eli Heidenreich (1,314 scrimmage yards) gave Navy an explosive offense that tallied 32 30-yard plays (25th) and a top-three explosive play rate (12.2%).
Heidenreich, also a senior, became Navy's all-time leading receiver this season.
Navy recorded a 50.4% Success Rate (seventh-best), 52% Quality Drive Rate (20th) and scored 3.22 Points Per Drive (12th). To summarize, it was a well-oiled machine.
But the sacrifice for such an efficient offense was the Midshipmen's defense.
This isn't your grandfather's Navy squad. Gone are the days of 13-10 stalemates (save for the Army-Navy game), and here are the days of 70-point track meets. Fortunately for the Midshipmen, Navy's offensive trio overcame most foes.
Navy's secondary isn't overly talented, and athletic quarterbacks gave the front seven fits. Navy's offense had to score more than 30 points to log a win four times this season .
Sometimes, that came against what should have been overmatched opponents like FAU and Temple. Against USF, Navy needed 41 to stave off an athletic Byrum Brown and a speedy receiving corps.
Only five teams allowed a worse EPA Per Dropback than Navy did this season, and it couldn't generate enough turnovers to apply the brakes. Opponents recorded a quality drive on 48% of possessions, the 26th-highest mark nationally.
Red-zone defense was mediocre, and on those quality drives, Navy's opponents averaged 3.99 points (24th-most).
The Liberty Bowl is a final sendoff for Horvath, Heidenreich and Tecza. Expect a healthy dose of all three on Friday.
Cincinnati Bearcats
A 7-1 start to the season saw Cincinnati climb into the national top 25 for the first time since joining the Big 12. But that 7-1 start was followed by four straight losses to close out the season just 7-5.
In retrospect, wins over Iowa State, UCF and Kansas degraded in quality.
The sigh that was the finish to this season led to a swath of opt-outs and transfers, including star quarterback Brendan Sorsby. Cornerbacks coach Eddie Hicks departs for Arkansas, and in response, four starting defensive backs and a couple of rotators decided to transfer.
Stud defensive tackle Dontay Corleone isn't listed on the bowl depth chart. While plenty of key pieces remain in place, the overwhelming majority of top contributors will not play.
If there was a team with an obvious lack of motivation in its bowl game, it's Cincinnati.
Sorsby led the Bearcats offense to a good run from Weeks 2-9, but as soon as the wheels fell off, the losses stacked up.
Cincinnati scored 34-plus in every game but one during that stretch (a 20-point outing against UCF), but once the calendar flipped to November, Cincinnati wouldn't see 25 points.
The step up in class was notable, with the final stretch of the season coming against Utah, Arizona, BYU and TCU — teams that combined for a 41-10 record (.804) this season.
Defense was a real issue. Cincy finished 111th in Points Per Drive allowed and 129th in available yards allowed (58.4%). Expectations are hurt further by the majority of its secondary missing this game.
The Bearcats allowed too many yards on first and second downs and then couldn't get off the field enough on third and fourth downs.
Opponents created quality drives on 50% of possessions, the 19th-highest rate in the country. The bend-don't-break approach was successful at times, as Cincy held opponents to field goals much more often than touchdowns, and the 3.36 Points Per Quality Drive ranks 53rd.
Defending the run is a more serious issue for this bowl game. Against run-heavy teams, Cincinnati crumbled.
Utah rushed for 267 yards, and BYU went for 265. Without Corleone in the middle, the Bearcats' run defense is a legitimate concern against Navy.
Cincinnati is the poster child for fraudulence. During its win streak, Cincy beat No. 14 Iowa State (finished 5-4 in Big 12 play), Kansas (3-6) and Baylor (3-6), all of whom had some form of preseason expectations.
In retrospect, Cincinnati beat six teams with losing records, and that stretch combined for a 29-55 record (.345).
Navy vs Cincinnati NCAAF Pick to Bet
Navy opened as a +5.5 underdog — a severely mispriced line, as the market indicated.
While it appears the Midshipmen will go into this game favored by around a touchdown, this line approached -10 in favor of the Midshipmen. The over/under fell from 56.5 points to 54.5.
Rain could be an issue here. There's between a 30-50% chance of precipitation during the game, at times moderate.
Service academies rarely see opt-outs and bear down hard on opponents in bowl games. Navy should be at full strength for this game, including Horvath and nose guard Landon Robinson, Navy's first first-team All-America selection since 1985.
There shouldn't be much of a concern for Navy stepping up in class from the American to the Big 12 here. Navy's last six bowl opponents hailed from power conferences, most recently Oklahoma (SEC) and Kansas State (Big 12).
The Midshipmen haven't lost a bowl game since 2016 (3-0) and have notched a win in six of their last seven bowl appearances.
Cincinnati's defense was already a concern. Now, it's without its top players and entire secondary.
Navy's defense is also a concern, even against senior QB Brady Lichtenberg and freshman QB Samaj Jones. The rest of the offense is intact, except for third-leading rusher Evan Pryor (522 yards).
The Bearcats are a bottom-50 defense in explosive runs and a bottom-10 unit in Stuff Rate.
Navy will be able to run on this defense and connect with explosive passes to Heidenreich. Heidenreich, Horvath and Tecza should play the full game, their final in a Navy uniform.
We'll know right off the bat whether Cincinnati wants to be in Memphis or not. I expect Navy to lean on this flawed and thinned defense and find plenty of points, even in a bowl season devoid of scoring.
Pick: Navy -7 or Better
Navy vs Cincinnati Trend to Know
