The North Carolina State Wolfpack take on the Wake Forest Demon Deacons in Winston-Salem, North Carolina, on Thursday, Sept. 11. Kickoff is set for 7:30 p.m. ET on ESPN.
NC State is favored by 7.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -285. Wake Forest, meanwhile, comes in as a +230 underdog to pull off the upset. The total sits at 53.5 points.
The Wolfpack have won 2 of the last 3 meetings between these teams, but the Demon Deacons pulled off a 34-20 victory in this in-state clash a season ago.
Here’s my NC State vs. Wake Forest prediction and college football picks for Thursday, September 11.
NC State vs Wake Forest Prediction
- NC State vs. Wake Forest Pick: Over 53.5
My Wake Forest vs. NC State best bet is on both teams to go over the total. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
NC State vs Wake Forest Odds
| NC State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-7.5 -105 | 52.5 -115o / -105u | -285 |
| Wake Forest Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+7 -115 | 52.5 -115o / -105u | +230 |
- NC State vs Wake Forest Spread: NC State -7.5, Wake Forest +7.5
- NC State vs Wake Forest Over/Under: 52.5 Points
- NC State vs Wake Forest Moneyline: NC State -285, Wake Forest +230
NC State vs Wake Forest Preview
North Carolina State Wolfpack Betting Preview: One-Score Merchants
Just two games into the 2025 season, we have a decent idea of what NC State might be this season.
The Wolfpack are 2-for-2 in playing in one-score games — East Carolina stormed back late to give NC State a scare with two minutes left in that game — and the defense came up big at the end in both.
Last week against Virginia, NC State got off to an atrocious start. It allowed back-to-back 75-yard scoring drives, and the defense was out there for 22 plays.
In the fourth quarter, the Wolfpack's stop unit benefited from some self-inflicted wounds to come away with the 35-31 victory. Virginia missed a 47-yard field goal, ran a play for no gain on fourth-and-short and then threw a pick to end the game.
UVA gouged NC State for huge gains on the ground. The Pack gave up 257 yards on just 32 carries, including runs of 66, 42 and 39 yards.
Poor second-level tackling contributed to the outbursts (safeties and cornerbacks count for 10 missed tackles already), and with talented running backs upcoming on the schedule, the Wolfpack may be staring down more explosive outings on the ground.
Quarterback CJ Bailey has clearly progressed since last year and is taking better care of the football early on.
Running back Hollywood Smothers ranks second in the ACC in rushing with 213 yards and finds himself tied for the conference lead with six 10-plus yard rushes.
Wake Forest Demon Deacons Betting Preview: Big-Time Explosiveness
We've got two opposing data points for Wake Forest so far on the season: one that includes a hard-to-watch 10 points scored against FBS bottom-dweller Kennesaw State and one that includes 42 points on (possibly bad) FCS Western Carolina.
Running back Demond Claiborne, who was a game-time decision in Week 2, exploded for 193 yards and a trio of touchdowns, while quarterback Robby Ashford added a 41-yard rushing touchdown.
It's clear the run game is the focus of the Demon Deacons this year.
With Claiborne, Wake is going to have some success on the ground. But when Claiborne can't get going, there's really no good second option. We saw that firsthand when he exited Week 1 with an injury after just three snaps — Wake got nothing going afterward.
So, what happens when Wake plays a team with a good run defense? Likely bad things.
Defensively, the Demon Deacons have been pretty stout, but they haven't played a team that gives them a good data point yet. This coming week changes that.
Late downs were an issue in Week 1 and less of an issue in Week 2. Kennesaw State went 9-for-19 on third down (47.4%) and Western Carolina converted 2-of-3 fourth downs (although both came when the game was out of hand).
NC State vs Wake Forest Pick, Betting Analysis
We've already seen this line move quite a bit.
The total opened at 56.5 points and dropped an entire field goal by Tuesday morning. The spread continues to move over a key number at -7. NC State -6.5 quickly moves back to -7, while Wake Forest +7.5 seems to be the buy point on that side.
If you're betting the side, timing is everything. A move over -7 represents about a 14% shift in expected win rate, the second-most in college football behind -3 (17%).
This is the ACC's longest continuous rivalry, with its 119th edition coming on Thursday night after starting in 1908.
Of late, we've been afforded some wild back-and-forth finishes. Of course, these are both new-look teams from what they've fielded lately.
Both teams boast explosive running backs and defenses susceptible to long runs.
Claiborne has six rushes of 10-plus yards already despite playing just one full game and three snaps in Week 1. His 212 rushing yards have come on just 13 attempts, and 145 of those came on three rushes last week. There's an opportunity for more long runs in Week 3, as NC State allowed 147 rushing yards on three long runs last week.
Wake Forest's defensive numbers are still inflated from playing two bad opponents; this week presents both the first quality opponent and quality offense it has faced.
The under would have been a buy at open, but if you missed the 56.5, that's chasing at this point. I think the total has fallen too far for what each offense is capable of — especially NC State's — and I'm playing back over the total here.
Pick: Over 53.5
