The New Mexico Lobos take on the San Jose State Spartans in San Jose, California. Kickoff is set for 10 p.m. ET on FS1.
San Jose State is favored by -2.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -135. The total is set at 58.5 points.
Here’s my New Mexico vs. San Jose State prediction and college football picks for Saturday, October 3, 2025.
New Mexico vs San Jose State Prediction
- New Mexico vs. San Jose State Pick: Over 57.5
My San Jose State vs. New Mexico best bet is on the over. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
New Mexico vs San Jose State Odds
| Lobos Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2.5 -110 | 57.5 -110o / -110u | +115 |
| Spartans Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2.5 -110 | 57.5 -110o / -110u | -135 |
- New Mexico vs San Jose State point spread: San Jose State -2.5
- New Mexico vs San Jose State over/under: 58.5 points
- New Mexico vs San Jose State moneyline: New Mexico +110, San Jose State -135
New Mexico vs San Jose State Preview
New Mexico Lobos Betting Preview: Concerns on Defense
The critical stretch of the season is right in front of the New Mexico Lobos if they're to prove that their hot start was no fluke and that this feisty bunch should be taken seriously in the Mountain West this season.
New Mexico hasn’t lost since its opener at Michigan, a game it played very well in.
The offense has been improving each week under new head coach Jason Eck, as the Lobos notched season-highs in points and total yards last week against New Mexico State.
Quarterback Jack Layne threw for 344 yards and five touchdowns last week while completing 78% of his throws. Scottre Humphrey and Damon Bankston have been running the ball well and the receivers have shown they're explosive and consistent in making tough contested catches.
This has been a very impressive group so far.
Defensively, there are some concerns here as the stop unit is giving up 367 yards per game and 5.7 yards per play. The Lobos provide very little havoc on opposing quarterbacks and teams are converting on third down at a high rate of 41%.
The complete shut-down of UCLA’s offense on national TV was impressive, but it appears more and more as if that type of defensive performance will be the exception rather than the expectation for New Mexico this season.
San Jose State Spartans Betting Preview: Offense Humming
San Jose State came into this season as a preseason favorite to reach the Mountain West title game, but the Spartans have been about as disappointing a team as any this season in the Group of 5.
Their only victory was a three-point squeaker against FCS Idaho and losses against Central Michigan and Stanford have created little room for error if San Jose State is to make a bowl game and get its season back on track.
The offense is starting to hum for San Jose State after notching its best performance of the season last week. The Spartans registered 524 total yards and 7.3 yards per play.
Quarterback Walker Eget had his best passing day, with 473 yards and three touchdowns through the air. Danny Scudero has been electric this season, hauling in 33 receptions for 514 yards, which places him third in all of FBS as this point in the season.
Defensively, San Jose State has really struggled against the pass the last three weeks. The coverage unit grades out worst in the Mountain West by a significant margin, per PFF.
The secondary surrendered 444 pass yards to Stanford last week and at critical junctures in the fourth quarter, they couldn't get stops.
New Mexico vs San Jose State Pick, Betting Analysis
I played over the total earlier in the week, and I would support a position on the over up to 58.5.
Both of these offenses have found a resurgence in their passing games and both quarterbacks should be licking their chops to get a crack at the opposing secondaries in this one. We should see very little pass rush in this game and clean pockets for both quarterbacks to make plays.
Both New Mexico and San Jose State struggle on the defensive front in creating defensive havoc. New Mexico ranks just 132nd in Defensive Havoc and had only generated two sacks during the first three weeks before registering nine last week against New Mexico State.
San Jose State ranks just 111th nationally in Defensive Havoc as the Spartans have registered just six sacks and 16 tackles for loss this season.
San Jose State completely abandoned the run game last week against Stanford, and we should see plenty of passing in this one as well. New Mexico ranks just 126th in Defensive Pass Play Explosiveness surrendered and 89th in Pass Play Success Rate.
We should see San Jose throw it around quite a bit here, while only sneaking in a run play on occasion.
San Jose State’s field goal operation unit let it down against Central Michigan in the opener and also failed it last week in the loss to Stanford. I suspect this team will opt for a fourth-down conversion attempt in the red zone rather than settling for field goals.
I expect the Spartans to convert those opportunities into points in a game they have to have to save their season.
Strap in for a fun one on Friday night, as we should see points a plenty.
Pick: Over 57.5 (Play to 58.5)
