Embracing chaos seems to be the theme of the 2024 college football season, and the MAC is no exception. While no teams are vying for the College Football Playoff, there's still a ton left to shake out in the final two weeks of play to determine which teams will play in the conference championship game.
The Ohio Bobcats (7-3, 5-1 MAC) enter Wednesday’s matchup against Toledo with one conference loss and the more straightforward scenario of the two teams. The Bobcats just need to win out to secure a spot in the championship.
Toledo’s path requires a bit more finesse to get there, but the Rockets (7-3, 4-2) are still in contention despite their pair of conference losses. The first step, of course, involves beating Ohio.
The Bobcats have won their last three games by an average of 32.3 points, yet are small road dogs against Toledo. Is Toledo properly favored to defend its home turf?
Let's dive into my Ohio vs. Toledo predictions and college football picks for Wednesday, Nov. 20.
Ohio Bobcats vs. Toledo Rockets Prediction
- Ohio vs. Toledo Pick: Ohio +2.5
My Toledo-Ohio best bet is on the Bobcats to cover the spread, with the best line currently available at DraftKings, according to our live NCAAF odds page.
Ohio vs. Toledo Odds, Betting Lines, Spread
| Ohio Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1 -105 | 46.5 -110o / -110u | +100 |
| Toledo Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1 -115 | 46.5 -110o / -110u | -120 |
- Ohio vs. Toledo Spread: Ohio +1 · Toledo -1
- Ohio vs. Toledo Over/Under: 46.5
- Ohio vs. Toledo Moneyline: Ohio ML +100 · Toledo ML -120
Ohio vs. Toledo NCAAF Week 12 Preview
Ohio Bobcats Betting Preview
One of the biggest overachievers in the FBS this season has been Ohio.
The Bobcats lost quarterback Kurtis Rourke to an undefeated Indiana team, their lead running back and nearly all of their receiving production from a season ago, yet they still control their own destiny toward winning the MAC.
Quarterback Parker Navarro isn’t the same caliber of passer as Rourke, but the combination of his arm and legs has kept the Ohio offense chugging along.
Navarro, who has more interceptions (8) than passing touchdowns (7), hasn’t thrown a touchdown in either of Ohio’s two most recent wins, but the dual-threat quarterback has added five touchdowns on the ground in that span.
Ohio ranks 41st nationally in Rush Success Rate and is one of two MAC teams averaging more than 200 yards rushing per game. Its 24 rushing touchdowns are tied for most in the league.
The Bobcats similarly excel at stopping the run on the defensive side of the ball. They're 18th nationally in Rush Success Rate allowed and lead the conference in run defense.
Ohio’s defense has turned it up in recent weeks, allowing just 26 total points across its last three games, making its matchup tonight with one of the MAC’s best offenses particularly compelling.
Toledo Rockets Betting Preview
Toledo’s path to reaching a third straight MAC Conference Championship game is starting to feel like Rocket(s) science, but Jason Candle’s team still has a chance.
In a similar fashion as Ohio, Toledo’s offense was dealt major offseason blows with the departure of its starting quarterback, top running back and all five starting offensive linemen from 2023.
As expected, the Toledo offense took a major step back in the rushing department, but the passing game has more than held up its end of the bargain.
Quarterback Tucker Gleason ranks second in the MAC with 225.8 yards passing per game, as are his 19 passing touchdowns despite having played one fewer game than conference leader Kadin Semonza of Ball State.
Every single one of Gleason’s passing touchdowns have been needed due to a Toledo rushing attack that ranks just 125th nationally in Rush Success Rate. The Rockets have averaged at least 4.0 yards per carry in just three games this season and don’t have a single back averaging even 40.0 yards per game.
While Toledo’s offense is flawed in the running department, its defense is more equally sound in both facets of the game. The Rockets are top-50 in both Pass Success Rate and Rush Success Rate allowed.
Toledo vs. Ohio Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Toledo and Ohio match up statistically:
Ohio Offense vs. Toledo Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 41 | 36 | |
| Line Yards | 67 | 68 |  |
| Pass Success | 61 | 41 | |
| Havoc | 75 | 22 | |
| Finishing Drives | 60 | 53 | |
| Quality Drives | 74 | 44 | |
Toledo Offense vs. Ohio Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 125 | 18 | |
| Line Yards | 110 | 37 | |
| Pass Success | 52 | 56 | |
| Havoc | 69 | 26 | |
| Finishing Drives | 84 | 90 | |
| Quality Drives | 117 | 28 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 114 | 25 |
| PFF Coverage | 28 | 12 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 108 | 70 |
| Middle 8 | 21 | 24 |
| Seconds per Play | 29.0 (109) | 24.4 (19) |
| Rush Rate | 61% (22) | 50% (89) |
Ohio vs. Toledo Best Bet, Picks
So, do the Rockets have what it takes to stay in the conference title hunt?
This game ultimately boils down to which version of Gleason comes to play. The Toledo rushing offense is already really poor, and it will be running right into the strength of the Ohio defense.
Gleason has some of the best statistics in the MAC, but he’s also really inconsistent. He’s thrown at least two interceptions in half of Toledo’s conference games this season, and the Bobcat defense is tied for the MAC lead in interceptions.
Ohio’s run-heavy offense travels, and the Rockets have allowed more than 180 yards rushing in three of their last five games. I’ll take the points with the road 'dog and back Ohio to keep proving all the preseason prognosticators wrong.
Pick: Ohio +2.5
Ohio vs. Toledo Channel, Streaming, How to Watch, Location
| Location: | Glass Bowl, Toledo, OH |
| Date: | Wednesday, Nov. 20 |
| Kickoff Time: | 7 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | ESPN2 |
Ohio travels to the Glass Bowl on Wednesday to face Toledo at 7 p.m. ET on ESPN2.
Ohio vs. Toledo Betting Trends to Know
Ohio vs. Toledo Weather Forecast
