The Penn State Nittany Lions (3-6, 0-6) take on the Michigan State Spartans (3-6, 0-6) in East Lansing, Michigan. Kickoff is set for 3:30 p.m. ET on CBS.
Penn State is favored by 7 points on the spread with a moneyline of -290. The total is set at 48.5 points.
Here’s my Penn State vs. Michigan State prediction and college football picks for Saturday, November 15.
Penn State Nittany Lions vs Michigan State Spartans Prediction, Picks
- Penn State vs. Michigan State Pick: Michigan State +7.5 or Better
My Michigan State vs. Penn State best bet is on the Spartans. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
Penn State vs Michigan State Odds, Spread, Line
| Penn State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-7.5 +100 | 49.5 -110o / -110u | -275 |
| Michigan St Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+7.5 -122 | 49.5 -110o / -110u | +225 |
- Penn State vs Michigan State Spread: Penn State -7.5, Michigan State +7.5
- Penn State vs Michigan State Over/under: 49.5
- Penn State vs Michigan State Moneyline: Penn State ML -275, Michigan State ML +225
Penn State vs Michigan State College Football Betting Preview
It's pretty amazing that both of these teams started 3-0 and then dropped six straight to start Big 10 play.
While that's maybe not too surprising for the Spartans, it certainly is for a Penn State squad that started the season ranked No. 2.
This particular bet is almost entirely a pure spot fade of Penn State following a heartbreaking loss to undefeated Indiana in the final minute last Saturday. The Nittany Lions clearly put forth an all-in effort in what became their Super Bowl in a lost season. That result also came after road games against Iowa and Ohio State.
Can the Nittany Lions get up off the mat for a fourth straight week for a pretty meaningless game in East Lansing against Michigan State? I'll make them prove they can win by a margin here.
Meanwhile, Michigan State will benefit from coming off a much-needed bye week.
Keep in mind this has been one of the most injury-ravaged Power Conference teams in the country, so I'd expect them to be in much better shape injury-wise following the two-week break.
The Spartans did even start to get a bit healthier before the bye, which led to some more promising results, including an absolute highway robbery loss at Minnesota in overtime, in which they out-gained the Gophers 467-301.
That was the best the offense has looked all year, with Alessio Milivojevic getting his first career start at quarterback. He averaged 11.1 yards per attempt (20-for-28, 311), which is something Aidan Chiles has never done in his career.
While Jonathan Smith has yet to name a starter for this week, I'd imagine the freshman gets the nod once again this week. However, I wouldn't rule out some packages or Chiles throughout the game.
Penn State vs Michigan State NCAAF Week 12 Pick
The spot is priced in a bit, but I'm still okay taking over a touchdown against a Penn State team that could come out completely flat out of the gates, while Smith should have a plus script coming out of the bye.
If Michigan State can jump on the Nittany Lions early, will they show enough fight in a season that has spiraled out of control? We shall see.
For what it's worth, Jonathan Smith-led teams are 31-21 ATS as an underdog, including 5-0 this season. His teams are also 10-2 ATS as an underdog with extra time to prepare.
Pick: Michigan State +7.5 or Better
