Sam Houston vs Jacksonville State Prediction, Pick, Odds for Saturday, November 23

In Week 13, Sam Houston (8-2) will travel to Jacksonville State (7-3) in a Conference USA Championship elimination game.

Famous for midweek college football in October, the newly shaped Conference USA is a four-team race to the finish, with Liberty and Western Kentucky in the other elimination game.

Head coach Rich Rodriguez has struggled with the Gamecocks against inferior competition through the past two weeks, beating Florida International and Louisiana Tech by a possession or less.

K.C. Keeler has been the head coach of Sam Houston since 2014, and the Bearkats have won an FCS national championship and three Southland Conference championships. The transition to FBS was rough after the Bearkats finished 2020 and 2021 with a 21-1 record. The Bearkats struggled as an FBS member last season, finishing 3-9 and receiving odds of 25/1 to win Conference USA in 2024.

With full health at the skill positions, Sam Houston is a true contender to win a conference title in only its second year of FBS play.

Jacksonville State will play host as a 6-point favorite at AmFirst Stadium, with a 55.5-point over/under.

My Sam Houston vs. Jacksonville State predictions and college football picks are below.

Sam Houston vs Jacksonville State Prediction

• Sam Houston vs Jacksonville State Pick: Jacksonville State -6

My Sam Houston vs Jacksonville State best bet is on the Gamecocks spread, with the best line currently available at bet365, according to our live NCAAF odds page.

Saturday, Nov. 23

12 p.m. ET

CBS Sports Network

Sam Houston Odds
Spread	Total	Moneyline
+6 -110	55.5 -110 / -110	+180

Jacksonville State Odds
Spread	Total	Moneyline
-6 -110	55.5 -110 / -110	-220

Odds via bet365. Get up-to-the-minute NCAAF odds here.

• Sam Houston vs Jacksonville State Point Spread: Sam Houston +6 (-110) · Jacksonville State -6 (-110)
• Sam Houston vs Jacksonville State Total: Over/Under 55.5
• Sam Houston vs Jacksonville State Moneyline: Sam Houston +180 · Jacksonville State -220

Sam Houston vs Jacksonville State Preview

Sam Houston Bearkats Betting Preview: Ground Game Key to Offense

Handicapping the Sam Houston offense centers around a single player, as quarterback Hunter Watson orchestrates Keeler's rush-heavy attack.

Watson is the leading rusher on the team, alongside running back Jay Ducker, with the two combining for 13 rushing touchdowns. The Bearkats use a heavy amount of inside zone with a pivot to power and outside zone for an offense that opts to run on 63% of snaps.

Sam Houston is just inside the top 40 nationally in line yards, stuff rate and distance of first contact, all signals that this offensive line wins the trench battle.

The nickel defense is the best in Conference USA by a country mile, ranking 56th of all teams in FBS per SP+.

The Bearkats have allowed nearly the least amount of rush explosives while posting a defensive quality drives rank of 12th. Hard stops, a PFF metric that measures a complete failure by the offense, is a forte of Sam Houston, which ranks in the top 10. The pass rush has been a force, led by edge Chris Murray and his 27 pressures. Safety Caleb Weaver and linebacker Kavian Gaither lead the team in tackles with a combined 117 for the season.

If there is a weakness to the defense, it's teams that can establish rush efficiency.

Sam Houston is bottom 20 in defensive rushing success rate, line yards and stuff rate. A near loss to Florida International was rooted in the Panthers ability to run the ball as they have posted a 57% success rate on 35 attempts.

Jacksonville State Gamecocks Betting Preview: Up-Tempo Rushing Attack

The Rich Rodriguez rush-heavy offense has been a staple of the Jacksonville State program since his arrival in 2022. The Gamecocks use inside zone more than just about any team in the country, as 83% of rushing attempts use the run concept.

Rodriguez does plenty during pre snap to get defenses to tip their hand, using no-huddle shotgun and motion on more than 50% of snaps. Jacksonville State plays with one of the quicker tempos in FBS, averaging 23.2 seconds per play for quarterback Tyler Huff and running back Tre Stewart.

The 3-3-5 leaves plenty to be desired in the advanced analytics, struggling to defend both the pass and rush.

The Gamecocks have struggled to create a pass rush, falling outside the top 100 in creating contested catches for opposing passing attacks. The biggest issue for the defense comes in scoring position as they're bottom 25 in opponent points per possession on drives extending beyond the 40-yard line. Jacksonville State has given up an average of 4.3 points to drives that have entered the extended red zone.

Sam Houston vs Jacksonville State

Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Sam Houston and Jacksonville State match up statistically:

Sam Houston Offense vs. Jacksonville State Defense

	Offense	Defense	Edge
Rush Success	92	97
Line Yards	40	84
Pass Success	107	73
Havoc	62	64
Finishing Drives	129	110
Quality Drives	104	81

Jacksonville State Offense vs. Sam Houston Defense

	Offense	Defense	Edge
Rush Success	24	112
Line Yards	25	122
Pass Success	64	27
Havoc	22	73
Finishing Drives	5	79
Quality Drives	33	12

Pace of Play / Other

PFF Tackling	53	35
PFF Coverage	75	53
Special Teams SP+	129	83
Middle 8	79	36
Seconds per Play	27.6 (82)	23.2 (6)
Rush Rate	64% (23)	66% (5)

Sam Houston vs Jacksonville State Pick & Prediction

There are plenty of similarities between these offenses.

Both squads have mobile quarterbacks that are crucial to heavy rush rates, as both teams have heavy inside zone usage.

The handicap comes down to the defense that is able to show resistance between the tackles and that can create tackles in space at the second level.

Jacksonville State's poor metrics in defending the rush can also be attributed to a lacking performance against inside zone. Teams using the run concept have a 56% success rate against the Gamecocks, generating a big play on 11% of attempts.

Sam Houston should have success running between the tackles with Watson and Ducker using inside zone, as the Bearkats also have one of the lowest penalty rates nationally. The biggest issue for Sam Houston is a rank of 129th in finishing drives.

That number is reversed for a Jacksonville State team that's fifth in offensive finishing drives and 16th in red zone touchdown scoring.

The lack of rush defense for Sam Houston makes this a wager on the Gamecocks, as the poor efficiency numbers will translate to explosive plays for Jacksonville State. The Bearkat defense has just a 37% success rate against inside zone, giving up a high amount of explosives.

The Action Network projections make Jacksonville State a favorite of 7.5, giving way to a wager on the Gamecocks at number at a touchdown or less.

The projected total comes in at 55.5, providing no value to a market number of 56.

Considering Sam Houston's inability to defend any kind of rushing attack that uses inside zone, a Jacksonville State team total could also be in play.

Pick: Jacksonville State -6

Sam Houston State vs. Jacksonville State will be played at AmFirst Stadium on Saturday, Nov. 23, at 12 p.m. ET. The game can be streamed live on CBS Sports Network.

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