The San Diego State Aztecs take on the Fresno State Bulldogs in Fresno, California. Kickoff is set for 3:30 p.m. ET on FS1.
San Diego State is favored by 3 points on the spread with a moneyline of -150. Fresno State, meanwhile, comes in as a +3 underdog and is +125 on the moneyline to pull off the upset. The over/under sits at 47 total points.
Here’s my San Diego State vs. Fresno State prediction and college football picks for Saturday, October 25.
San Diego St vs Fresno State Prediction
- San Diego State vs. Fresno State Pick: San Diego State -3
My Fresno State vs. San Diego State best bet is on the Aztecs to cover the spread. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
San Diego State vs Fresno State Odds
| San Diego State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3 -110 | 47 -110o / -110u | -150 |
| Fresno State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3 -110 | 47 -110o / -110u | +125 |
- San Diego State vs Fresno State Spread: San Diego State -3, Fresno State +3
- San Diego State vs Fresno State Over/Under: 47 Points
- San Diego State vs Fresno State Moneyline: San Diego State -150, Fresno State +125
San Diego State vs Fresno State College Football Betting Preview
San Diego State Aztecs Betting Preview: Steady, Disciplined and Balanced
San Diego State doesn’t always win with flash, but it's been quietly efficient all year, and that consistency has it sitting at 5–1 with real momentum.
The Aztecs rank 65th nationally in Success Rate and 37th in Finishing Drives, showing an offense that moves the ball steadily and converts when it counts.
They protect their quarterback extremely well, ranking 11th in Havoc allowed, and they play clean, disciplined football, ranking 52nd in penalties.
That combination — efficiency, composure and mistake-free drives — has allowed this team to stay in control late in games.
At the center of that attack is quarterback Jayden Denegal, who has quietly turned into one of the Mountain West’s most reliable passers. His 23rd-ranked offensive grade, per PFF, speaks to how poised and efficient he has been.
Denegal isn’t asked to throw 40 times a game (the Aztecs rank 92nd in pass rate), but when he does, he’s decisive and accurate. He fits perfectly into the Aztecs’ identity: protect the football, stay ahead of schedule and capitalize in the red zone.
Paired with a defense that ranks third nationally in Success Rate allowed and 11th on third downs, San Diego State doesn’t need to play perfectly to win. It just needs to play its brand of football.
Fresno State Bulldogs Betting Preview: Dangerous Offense, Weak Defense
Fresno State has long been known for its offensive energy, but this year’s defense has been a real liability. The Bulldogs rank near the bottom of the country in several key areas: 109th in Finishing Drives allowed and 115th in Explosiveness allowed.
Even more concerning is the overall quality of play. Fresno State’s defense ranks 117th nationally, according to PFF.
The Bulldogs aren't generating pressure (119th in PFF Pass Rush Grade), they’re missing tackles, and they’re giving up far too many easy completions.
The struggles extend situationally, too. The Bulldogs are just 86th in third-down defense and 109th in red-zone stops, meaning opponents sustain drives and cash in once they reach scoring territory.
San Diego State’s offense thrives on exactly those kinds of inefficiencies. The Aztecs rack up patient, methodical drives that exploit soft spots in coverage.
Fresno State’s inability to create negative plays has also been costly; opposing quarterbacks have had clean pockets all season, and Denegal is too efficient to let that go unpunished.
While Fresno’s offense still flashes at times — particularly in tempo and early-down rhythm — it’s hard to trust a team that ranks outside the top 100 in most defensive efficiency categories.
Against an opponent that plays mistake-free football and rarely gives away field position, the Bulldogs defense simply hasn’t shown enough resistance to inspire confidence.
San Diego State vs Fresno State Pick, Betting Analysis
This matchup sets up perfectly for San Diego State. The Aztecs bring the more complete roster, the steadier quarterback and a defense that forces teams to play from behind the chains.
Denegal, operating behind one of the cleanest protection units in the Mountain West, should have no trouble dissecting a Fresno State defense that ranks 117th, per PFF, and struggles to get off the field.
Fresno’s lack of pass rush means Denegal will have time, and that’s when San Diego State is most dangerous, mixing efficient short-game concepts with well-timed deep shots. Don't be afraid to sprinkle a bit on his passing yards total as well.
Meanwhile, SDSU’s defense is elite in all the right places — third nationally in Success Rate, eighth in average field position and 11th in third-down defense — giving it a strong edge against a Fresno team that ranks outside the top 70 in almost every offensive efficiency metric.
This feels like a game where the Aztecs control tempo, win the field-position battle and wear down a defense that’s already stretched thin.
Pick: San Diego State -3
San Diego State vs Fresno State Betting Trends
