The Troy Trojans take on the Jacksonville State Gamecocks in the Salute to Veterans Bowl in Montgomery, Alabama, on Tuesday, Dec. 16. Kickoff is set for 9 p.m. ET on ESPN.
Jacksonville State enters as a -3 favorite on the spread with a moneyline of -162. Troy, meanwhile, enters as a +3 underdog and is +136 on the moneyline to pull off the upset. The over/under sits at 47.5 total points.
Here’s my Troy vs. Jacksonville State prediction and college football picks for Tuesday, December 16.
Troy Trojans vs Jacksonville State Gamecocks Prediction, Picks
- Troy vs. Jacksonville State Pick: Jacksonville State -2.5
My Jacksonville State vs. Troy best bet is on the Gamecocks to cover the spread. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
Troy vs Jacksonville State Odds, Lines, Spread
| Troy Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3 -112 | 47.5 -112o / -108u | +136 |
| Jacksonville State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3 -108 | 47.5 -112o / -108u | -162 |
- Troy vs Jacksonville State Spread: Jacksonville State -3, Troy +3
- Troy vs Jacksonville State Over/Under: 47.5 Total Points
- Troy vs Jacksonville State Moneyline: Troy ML +136, Jacksonville State ML -162
Troy vs Jacksonville State NCAAF Preview
Troy Trojans
This line seems low when you look closely at Troy’s offense heading into this bowl game. The offense was barely holding on earlier in the season even with quarterback Goose Crowder, but now he's coming off an injury, and the unit is without top running back Tae Meadows.
That’s a tough spot for a team that ranked outside the top 100 in EPA Per Pass and EPA Per Rush. Troy also finished 113th in early downs EPA Per Play, showing how often it was stuck in second-and-long or third-and-long situations.
Things will only get harder with Crowder being injured for bowl prep after suffering an injury in the Sun Belt Championship. He was seen on crutches toward the end of the conference title game, but reports indicate he will start.
If needed, backup QB Tucker Kilcrease saw some time earlier this season when Crowder went down.
The quarterback situation is bad news for an offense that ranked 101st in third- and fourth-down success and 124th in average third-down distance at almost eight yards to go, so its drives often stalled before it could flip field position.
This is a rough profile over a full season, and it’s even worse in a bowl game when the offense is out of sync. I can't stress enough how bad this offense is, and now it's in dire straits with the opt-out and injury situation.
Jacksonville State Gamecocks
With Troy's offensive problems, Jacksonville State’s defense will surely make a difference.
The Gamecocks have quietly built one of the most efficient pass defenses in the country, ranking 16th nationally in EPA Per Pass allowed. They play disciplined football on early downs, forcing offenses to work for every yard instead of relying on big plays.
If Troy struggled to stay ahead of the chains with Crowder fully healthy, it’s unlikely things will improve here, especially against a defense that takes advantage of mistakes.
This looks like another game where Troy will face many third-and-long situations, which is tough when quarterback options are limited.
On the other side, Jacksonville State’s offense matches up well with Troy’s defense.
The Trojans have been solid against the pass but much weaker against the run, ranking 71st in EPA Per Rush allowed. That’s a problem against a Jacksonville State team that's top-15 nationally in EPA Per Rush and likes to play a physical, clock-controlling game.
The Gamecocks don’t need to do anything special on offense here. They just need to win early downs, stay in manageable third-down spots and make Troy play from behind.
Unlike Troy, Jacksonville State comes into this game at full strength. With no major opt-outs or star players leaving, the Trojans seem focused on finishing the season strong.
Troy vs Jacksonville State NCAAF Pick to Bet
Motivation is important in bowl games, and this one clearly means more to Jacksonville State. The program is still building its FBS identity, and beating a regional rival like Troy in a bowl matters.
The Trojans are coming off a tough loss in the Sun Belt Championship, and now they're missing some offensive starters and trying to adjust quickly.
When combining Jacksonville State’s motivation with the matchup data, the team to back becomes clear.
The Gamecocks have a few injuries on defense worth monitoring, but Troy’s offense is in horrific shape, and I don't think the injuries will impact the matchup that much.
Everything about this matchup suggests Jacksonville State will stay close late into the fourth quarter, if not control much of the game.
Troy’s offense doesn’t look like one that can pull away, especially with Crowder at less than 100%. Meanwhile, Jacksonville State has several ways to win with its tempo, physical play and strong defense.
In a bowl game where continuity and motivation often decide the outcome, Jacksonville State is one of my favorite plays of the entire bowl season.
Pick: Jacksonville State -2.5
Troy vs Jacksonville State Trend to Know
