On Saturday afternoon, let’s head to Troy, Alabama, for a Sun Belt matchup between the Troy Trojans (1-3) and UL Monroe Warhawks (2-1).
The Trojans are in the midst of a rebuild, but are coming off a win over Florida A&M after losing three straight to open the season.
Meanwhile, ULM got its teeth kicked in by the Texas Longhorns last weekend, but the Warhawks are still one game over .500 thanks to wins over Jackson State and UAB.
It’s an intriguing matchup between two teams with questionable outlooks for the remainder of their schedule.
Oddsmakers have the Trojans as seven-point home favorites, and the total is 45.5.
Let's break down my ULM vs Troy prediction and pick.
ULM vs Troy Picks, Predictions
- ULM vs Troy Pick: Under 45.5
My Troy vs ULM best bet is on the under, with the best line currently available at bet365, according to our live NCAAF odds page.
ULM vs Troy Odds, Spread, Lines
| ULM Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+6.5 -110 | 45.5 -110o / -110u | +210 |
| Troy Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-6.5 -110 | 45.5 -110o / -110u | -260 |
- ULM vs Troy Point Spread: ULM +6.5 (-110) · Troy -6.5 (-110)
- ULM vs Troy Total: Over/Under 45.5
- ULM vs Troy Moneyline: ULM +210 · Troy -260
ULM Football vs Troy Football Preview
Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks Betting Preview: No Faith?
The Warhawks should have covered last weekend against the Horns, but not because of their effort on the field. ULM lost 51-3, which included a late touchdown run by the Horns when they could've run the clock out.
The matchup against the Trojans seems enticing, but the offense could be much better. Despite looking a lot more promising to begin the season, ULM ranks 134th nationally in success rate.
Quarterback General Booty has decided to vigorously represent his last name. He's averaging 230 passing yards per game. ULM leans heavily on its run game, but Booty hasn't helped the cause.
As bad as the Trojans have been on defense, I don't think the ULM offense can take advantage of it. They should be able to move the ball a bit, but there's no telling if they'll be able to turn it into touchdowns.
They scored over 30 points each against Jackson State and UAB, but even those teams need to be on par with the Trojans. I definitely can't count on them offensively to consistently contribute.
Defensively, it might be just as bad as the offense. ULM ranks outside the top 100 in most defensive metrics, including 93rd in pass success rate allowed.
The Trojans could be a better football team, but I have much more faith in their offense than the ULM team. The Warhawks are seven-point road dogs here for a reason, and they'll struggle mightily on Saturday.
Troy Trojans Betting Preview: Can Offense Lead the Way?
The Trojans are rebuilding their once-respectable program, and it might take some time to get back to where they've been over the last couple of seasons.
The Trojans' once-proud defense has already allowed 38 points to an Iowa Hawkeye offense. That's like allowing 100 points to any other FBS offense. (I'm only kidding.)
Still, the Trojans' defense is a major concern heading into Saturday's matchup.
The Trojans rank 122nd nationally in success rate allowed, as their defense has been completely gashed on the ground and in the air. Opponents are killing them on third and fourth down.
Offensively, it's been a different story. Despite a 1-3 start, the Trojans have moved the ball well, ranking 67th in success rate and 38th in pass success rate.
Damien Taylor has been a menace on the ground, averaging almost seven yards per carry. It's been a massive asset to quarterback Goose Crowder, who's been respectable thus far.
It's a great matchup against a struggling ULM defense, and I expect the Trojans to find success on the ground throughout the contest consistently. They should control the clock via the ground game, which will help keep the defense off the field.
How To Make College Football Picks For My ULM vs Troy Prediction
It's a tough handicap on the spread, but I like the under here at 45.5.
The Trojans' aerial attack is OK, but I don't expect the offense to snap the ball quickly between plays.
The Trojans' ground attack should dictate the time of possession, and I expect the Warhawks' offense to struggle.
It's a plus matchup for the ULM offense, but it's proven nothing against formidable competition thus far.
The Warhawks rank eighth nationally in starting field position but still struggle to score points. That's an alarming red flag, and there's no way I will take over with Booty at quarterback.
Pick: Under 45.5 (Play to 44.5)
How to Watch ULM vs Troy Live: Streaming, Channel, Time
| Location: | Veterans Memorial Stadium, Troy, AL |
| Date: | Saturday, Sept. 28 |
| Kickoff Time: | 7 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | ESPN+ |
Troy vs ULM Betting Trends
- ULM is 2-1 SU and ATS.
- Troy is 2-2 SU but 1-3 ATS.
- ULM games are 2-1 to the over.
