The UMass Minutemen take on the Central Michigan Chippewas in Mount Pleasant, Michigan. Kickoff is set for 3:30 p.m. ET on ESPN+.
Central Michigan is favored by 16.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -750. UMass, meanwhile, is a +16.5 underdog and is +525 on the moneyline to pull off the upset. The over/under sits at 46.5 points.
Here’s my UMass vs. Central Michigan prediction and college football picks for Saturday, October 25.
UMass vs Central Michigan Prediction
- UMass vs. Central Michigan Pick: UMass Team Total Under 14.5
My Central Michigan vs. UMass best bet is on the Minutemen to go under their team total. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
UMass vs Central Michigan Odds
| UMass Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+16.5 -110 | 46.5 -110o / -110u | +525 |
| Central Michigan Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-16.5 -110 | 46.5 -110o / -110u | -750 |
- UMass vs Central Michigan Spread: Central Michigan -16.5, UMass +16.5
- UMass vs Central Michigan Over/Under: 46.5 Points
- UMass vs Central Michigan Moneyline: UMass +525, Central Michigan -750
UMass vs Central Michigan College Football Betting Preview
UMass Minutemen Betting Preview: Lucky Explosives
It's safe to say that Year 1 for head coach Joe Harasymiak has not gone according to plan, as the Minutemen have struggled in all three phases of football.
Last week’s demoralizing loss might have been the tipping point. UMass had the lead and the ball, attempting to run the clock out but was unsuccessful. Some questionable play-calling led to Buffalo getting the ball back and scoring a touchdown with 19 seconds left to steal the victory in Amherst.
UMass found an offensive spark against Buffalo, but that could be classified as fluky. Brandon Hood broke a 90-yard touchdown run, and Max Dowling took a screen pass for a 77-yard touchdown.
In their other 56 plays, the Minutemen averaged 2.5 yards per play and converted just 5-of-17 third-down attempts.
This offense lacks explosiveness and has such poor execution on third downs and in the red zone. I believe those struggles will continue this week.
Defensively, UMass hasn’t played too badly in MAC play, and this defense has given the team chances to win games late into the fourth quarter.
The run defense has been decent by MAC standards, as PFF grades this as the sixth-best unit in the MAC.
This team tackles well and has held its last two opponents under 4.0 yards per carry — positive strides in an otherwise unsuccessful year for UMass.
Central Michigan Chippewas Betting Preview: Drinkall Changing the Game
CMU is coming off its most impressive win of the season in a conference road victory over Bowling Green last week.
Coming off the bye week with extra time to think about an embarrassing loss to Akron preceding the bye, CMU put up its best defensive performance of the season.
The Chips held BG to just 310 total yards and didn't allow a touchdown while forcing two turnovers.
Head coach Matt Drinkall has had an immediate impact on the Chips this season with the design of a completely new offense and a renewed attitude on defense.
The rush-heavy attack controlled the pace and effectively moved the ball on the ground against BG in its fourth straight game rushing for more than 200 yards.
CMU attempted just five passes, completing three of them. The Chips might throw it a bit more this week against a weak UMass secondary, but the passing game won't overwhelm anyone.
UMass vs Central Michigan Pick, Betting Analysis
With the line and total set where they are, we can pluck the UMass team total under 15.5. That's the play I'm making in this one.
UMass hasn't been effective offensively this season, as the Minutemen have scored just 6.7 points per game on the road.
The offensive line has been overwhelmed early and often, surrendering 60 tackles for loss and 23 sacks. Much of this Havoc has been the result of coverage sacks, as the UMass receivers often fail to create separation.
CMU isn't going to provide as much of a pass rush as prior opponents, but the Chips' coverage unit grades out as the third-best in the MAC, per PFF.
That will create situations where UMass quarterback AJ Hairston holds onto the ball longer than he wants to. The offensive line won't be able to hold up.
UMass ranks just 123rd nationally in Offensive Finishing Drives this season, and execution in the red zone has been terrible. The Minutemen have scored just five red-zone touchdowns in 18 trips, with only three of those scores coming against FBS competition.
CMU was torched in the red zone against Pitt and Michigan, but outside of that, has allowed just five red-zone touchdowns against every other opponent.
The Chippewas are going to dominate the time of possession and deliver long, methodical drives to move the football. They're are just 87th in explosiveness on offense and are completely comfortable running plays designed to get four yards at a time.
CMU has done well to protect the football, so I wouldn't expect UMass to be set up with short fields due to careless mistakes.
UMass found the end zone three times last week, but the fluky explosives can't be counted on week after week. That was more of an anomaly, and I expect the offensive output to look a lot like it has the previous four weeks — in the single digits.
CMU wins this low-scoring grinder as UMass stays under its team total.
Pick: UMass Team Total Under 14.5
