The UNLV Rebels take on the Boise State Broncos in Boise, Idaho. Kickoff is set for 8 p.m. ET on FOX.
Boise State is favored by 4.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -210. UNLV, meanwhile, enters as a +4.5 underdog and is +175 on the moneyline to pull off the upset. The over/under sits at 58.5 total points.
Here’s my UNLV vs. Boise State prediction and college football picks for Friday, December 5.
UNLV vs Boise State Prediction
- UNLV vs. Boise State Pick: UNLV +5 or Better · ML Sprinkle at +190 or Better
My Boise State vs. UNLV best bet is on the Rebels to cover the spread. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
UNLV vs Boise State Odds
| UNLV Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+4.5 -105 | 58.5 -110o / -110u | +175 |
| Boise State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-4.5 -115 | 58.5 -110o / -110u | -210 |
- UNLV vs Boise State Spread: Boise State -4.5, UNLV +4.5
- UNLV vs Boise State Over/Under: 58.5 Points
- UNLV vs Boise State Moneyline: UNLV +175, Boise State -210
UNLV vs Boise State Mountain West Championship Preview
UNLV Rebels Betting Preview: Making Massive Strides
First impressions are difficult to overcome in life and in college football.
The Rebels fell down, 10-0, in their season opener to Idaho State, and despite enjoying the anonymity of Week 0, once college football fans caught wind of this, Dan Mullen’s team took a major reputational hit.
The defense continued to struggle in September, but UNLV found a way to stack wins, albeit unimpressive ones. It snuck out a seven-point win over UCLA, a three-point road win over Miami (OH), which was hamstrung by a quarterback injury, and then they narrowly escaped against 1-4 Air Force, edging out the Falcons, 51-48.
It was the least respected 6-0 start in all of college football.
Fans, gamblers and pundits alike felt vindicated when Boise laid the hammer down on UNLV in mid-October, derailing the Rebels’ perfect season. Two weeks later, New Mexico scored a touchdown late in the fourth quarter to nip UNLV at Allegiant Stadium, 40-35.
What happened next wasn’t covered much by the national media. The much-maligned UNLV defense began getting stops.
Needing four straight wins to make the conference title game, the Rebels defense tightened up to such an extent that it allowed just 16 points per game across their final four games.
This included a pivotal showdown with Hawaii, which was in the thick of the title race itself. Quarterback Micah Alejado was dealing at the time, having thrown three touchdown passes in five straight games. Then Paul Guenther’s defense put him in a box. The Rebels held Hawaii to just 231 total yards and 10 points.
With the defense rejuvenated, their pass defense metrics are now respectable across the board. Now 65th in coverage, 64th in Passing Success Rate allowed and 21st in pass rush, the Rebels can hold their own when they have a lead and teams are passing to keep up.
That brings us to the other half of the UNLV equation: its offense.
Quarterback Anthony Colandrea, very quietly, put up monster numbers in Mullen’s system. He cleared 3,600 total yards while accounting for 30 total touchdowns.
And he did all of this while significantly cutting back on his Turnover-Worthy Plays. He finished the regular season with a modest 10 TWPs. In 17 career starts at Virginia, he averaged more than 1.5 per game.
He’s efficient, dynamic as a runner and no longer a turnover threat. When you select someone like that as your triggerman and pair him with a dynamic one-cut runner like Jai'Den "Jet" Thomas, it’s no wonder UNLV has the fourth-rated rushing attack, per PFF.
In its first meeting with the Broncos, UNLV put up 476 total yards of offense, but it settled for one red-zone field goal, turned it over on downs at the Boise 18, and Colandrea threw a crippling pick-six late in the third quarter.
I have immense confidence in UNLV’s ability to move the football, but we’ll see if the defense can get off the field enough to give it a puncher’s chance in the fourth quarter.
Boise State Broncos Betting Preview: Falling Off
The Boise fear factor in the Mountain West is a thing of the past.
From 2016 through last season, the Broncos won the MW four times, appeared in two other conference championship games, and finished with more than two conference losses just once.
Last season, Boise rode running back Ashton Jeanty all the way to the College Football Playoff. There were concerns heading into this 2025 that a natural drop-off was right around the corner; the only question was how far it would slide post-Jeanty.
A four-loss regular season was humbling, but what was shocking was the way in which it lost those four games. In all four defeats, BSU was held to just seven points.
In one season, the Broncos slipped from fifth in scoring (37.3 PPG) to 42nd (30.8 PPG).
And now it's faced with a conundrum at quarterback.
Maddux Madsen will be getting the start on Friday night after suffering an ankle and toe injury on Nov. 1 against Fresno State. A big part of Madsen’s game is his ability to throw on the move, manipulate the pocket and extend plays with his legs.
Early practice footage of Madsen indicated that he wasn’t comfortable at full speed just yet, but there's word out of Boise that he has a new insole that should provide comfort and stability to his injured toe.
If Madsen isn’t 100% or looks a bit rusty after a month off, will Spencer Danielson give him the quick hook should the Broncos fall behind? That’s a legitimate concern given the fact that he has a young quarterback on the bench who was getting better each week.
Max Cutforth threw for 341 yards and a pair of scores in a come-from-behind win over Utah State, 25-24.
Is Cutforth at 100% better than Madsen at 75% or worse? That’s a question Danielson has answered pre-game, but it’ll remain on his mind all night long.
Defensively, this Boise team defends the pass extremely well. If Colandrea and the Rebs need to throw to catch up, they’ll be playing right into Boise’s hands.
The Broncos finished the regular season fifth in Passing Success Rate allowed and Pass EPA allowed.
Their cornerbacks, in particular, were fantastic, grading out as the 19th-best coverage unit in the sport. Unfortunately for Boise, A’Marion McCoy suffered a season-ending knee injury two weeks ago. He was playing his way into NFL Draft consideration.
Up front, Boise simply hasn’t played to its standard, ranking 132nd in tackling, 134th in Rush EPA allowed and 82nd in Defensive Line Yards.
The Rebels ran for 261 yards in their first meeting, and if the sledding is easier for Colandrea through the air with McCoy sidelined, things could get dicey for this Boise defense.
UNLV vs Boise State Pick, Betting Analysis
When these two locked horns last season, UNLV closed as a four-point home 'dog in the regular season and a four-point road 'dog in the conference title game up at Boise. It dropped both games to the Broncos, 29-24, in October and 21-7 in December.
At the beginning of the week, we were right back to where we started with this spread, with Boise opening as a four-point home favorite for the second straight season in the title game.
But that number has steamed up to Boise -5.5 at some books with a moneyline of BSU -215. This move presumably has to do with Madsen’s return to the starting lineup. Be careful what you wish for, Boise backers.
At this price point, I’m buying UNLV plus the points. I trust in this offense, which shredded the Boise run defense in the first meeting.
While the loss of McCoy hasn’t been felt much in the Broncos’ last two games against Colorado State and Utah State, his absence could show up on the tape in this one.
The Rams were starting a sawed-off freshman quarterback who could barely see over the line of scrimmage, and Utah State’s Bryson Barnes completed less than 50% of his attempts in his final three games.
Colandrea, meanwhile, has been a touchdown machine during the Rebels’ late-season surge. During their four-game win streak to close the regular season, he accounted for 11 total touchdowns while connecting on 66% of his attempts.
With Colandrea throwing into a depleted secondary, UNLV will have a chance to score north of 30 points for the second time this season against Boise.
It’ll come down to UNLV’s improved defense, but I think the quarterback uncertainty for Boise could lead to a slow start. If that’s the case and game flow allows the Rebels to run it at a high clip, while Boise is forced to throw into an improved UNLV pass defense…that’s the recipe for a UNLV outright upset.
Pick: UNLV+5.5 (Play to +5) · ML Sprinkle at +190 or Better
UNLV vs Boise State Betting Trends
