The Army Black Knights’ dream of a CFP birth is officially over after they were taken to the woodshed last week by Notre Dame at Yankee Stadium.
The Knights had a terrific season led by quarterback Bryson Daily, but earning the right to make the playoff required an undefeated season and AAC title due to their strength of schedule.
Now, the Knights must turn around and host the UTSA Roadrunners on Saturday afternoon in West Point, New York.
Service academies typically do not struggle with motivation, but a letdown is on the horizon.
Oddsmakers have Army as 7-point home favorites, and the total is 54.5.
Here are my UTSA vs Army predictions and college football picks.
UTSA vs Army Prediction
- UTSA vs. Army Pick: UTSA +7
My UTSA vs. Army is on the Roadrunners spread, with the best line currently available at bet365, according to our live NCAAF odds page.
UTSA vs Army Odds
| UTSA Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+6.5 -102 | 54.5 -115o / -105u | +195 |
| Army Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-6.5 -120 | 54.5 -115o / -105u | -240 |
- UTSA vs Army Spread: UTSA +6.5 (-110) · Army -6.5 (-110)
- UTSA vs Army Over/Under: 54.5 Points
- UTSA vs Army Moneyline: UTSA +195 · Army -240
UTSA vs Army Preview
UTSA Roadrunners Betting Preview: Offense on Fire
The Roadrunners took care of business last Friday against Temple and are now on a 3-game winning streak. Meep Meep has clinched a spot into bowl season, but a road win here would salvage a disappointing season for head coach Jeff Traylor.
I’m unsure what type of effort we’ll get from the Roadrunners. They already have a bowl game locked up, but I am sure Traylor would love to wrap up the regular season by defeating a ranked opponent like the Army.
There is much to like about UTSA in the matchup, especially on offense. America watched the Army's defense finally get exposed on a national stage last Saturday, so clear holes are bound to get exposed.
The Roadrunners' offense has been humming, scoring a remarkable 38 points or better in their previous five games.
Quarterback Owen McCown has been shredding opposing defenses, so I expect the Black Knights' secondary to be exposed again. Their offensive metrics may appear poor, but their performance on the field speaks for itself.
It is also a great matchup for them defensively. UTSA only sees a triple-option offense sometimes but has one of the best run defenses in the country.
Not only that, but these pass rushers have done a terrific job getting after the quarterback, which has allowed their secondary to be solid against the pass. The defense does not get enough credit, and the Black Knights are in trouble here.
Army Black Knights Betting Preview: Schedule Not Impressive
Army has had an incredible season, but it was only a matter of time before they finally got exposed.
The Black Knights had one of the softest strengths of schedules in the entire nation as they were steamrolling over their opponents. The National Championship-contending Irish put them in their place in a hurry, and the game felt out of reach only three drives into the contest.
It's an intriguing matchup for the Black Knights, considering it is a strength versus strength matchup. We are about to see the top-ranked team in Rush Success Rate and Line Yards against the best in Rush Success Rate Allowed and Line Yards Allowed.
But we all saw what happened last week when the Black Knights faced a legitimate defense. The athletes on the field did not have a fighting chance against the Irish.
I mentioned motivation above, but that is a massive part of the handicap. The market indicates that the Army will win the game by at least one touchdown, given that they just got destroyed, and UTSA is suddenly an offensive powerhouse.
However, the motivational and situational spot is very much against the Army. There is no reason why they should care about this game, especially with the AAC Title Game next week.
Considering the CFP hopes are dead, the Army's two focus areas are Tulane next week and the Navy the weekend after. I would not be surprised to see quarterback Bryson Daily held out of the game, considering he has been dealing with injuries over the past several weeks.
UTSA vs Army
Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how UTSA and Army match up statistically:
UTSA Offense vs. Army Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 122 | 100 | |
| Line Yards | 90 | 122 | |
| Pass Success | 71 | 31 | |
| Havoc | 71 | 94 | |
| Finishing Drives | 103 | 2 | |
| Quality Drives | 100 | 7 | |
Army Offense vs. UTSA Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 2 | 1 |  |
| Line Yards | 1 | 1 | |
| Pass Success | 63 | 78 | |
| Havoc | 1 | 2 | |
| Finishing Drives | 13 | 93 | |
| Quality Drives | 3 | 64 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 120 | 52 |
| PFF Coverage | 95 | 50 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 61 | 62 |
| Middle 8 | 39 | 25 |
| Seconds per Play | 24.3 (17) | 34.1 (134) |
| Rush Rate | 49% (98) | 87% (1) |
UTSA vs Army Pick & Prediction
If it wasn't obvious already, I love the Roadrunners here.
Considering the circumstances I listed above, I think the line is a bit trappy.
But I have a strange feeling that the Army might sit a few players, and the news will not break until a few hours before kickoff. There is legitimately zero reason why the Army cares about the game, which will outweigh any lack of motivation that the Roadrunners might have.
Let's examine some key metrics determining the game's spread if the situational and motivational angle doesn't twist your arm. First, we already discussed that this is an incredible matchup in the trench.
It's the UTSA elite defensive trench versus the elite Army offensive trench. But people continue to overlook a big problem: the Army has legitimately played nobody.
Their strength of schedule is 91, and that is because they played Notre Dame last week. Also, you want to avoid running the ball against this UTSA team; that is all Army knows how to do well.
UTSA's offense is better than the metrics suggest, and they've had plenty of success going to the air. The Army defense is also 94th in Havoc, so McCown will have little pressure to evade.
Even if Army can somehow control the clock, it will not be able to keep up with the rapid tempo of the UTSA offense, so its style of play will hurt it here. There are paths for UTSA to score many points here, and I've been screaming for weeks that Army's defense is a complete fraud.
I'd try to snag the Roadrunners at +7 or better in case some news about players sitting starts to leak out. Army has far more critical games to look ahead to.
Pick: UTSA +7 (Play to 4.5)
UTSA vs Army Start Time, Channel, Streaming, How To Watch
| Location: | Michie Stadium |
| Date: | Saturday, Nov. 30 |
| Kickoff Time: | 12 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | CBS Sports Network |
UTSA vs Army will be played at Michie Stadium, on Saturday, Nov. 30 at 12 p.m. ET. You can stream the game live on CBS Sports Network.
