The Virginia Cavaliers take on the North Carolina Tar Heels in Chapel Hill, NC, on Saturday, Oct. 25. Kickoff is set for 12 p.m. ET on ACC Network.
Virginia is favored by -10.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -390. UNC, meanwhile, enters as a +10.5 underdog and is +310 on the moneyline to pull off the upset. The over/under sits at 51.5 total points.
Here’s my Virginia vs. UNC prediction and college football picks for Saturday, October 25.
Virginia Cavaliers vs UNC Tar Heels Predictions, Pick
- Virginia vs. UNC Pick: Virginia Team Total Over 31.5
My North Carolina vs. Virginia best bet is on the Cavaliers to go over their team total. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
Virginia vs UNC Odds, Line
| Virginia Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-10.5 -115 | 51.5 -110o / -110u | -400 |
| UNC Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+10.5 -105 | 51.5 -110o / -110u | +310 |
- Virginia vs UNC Spread: Virginia -10.5, UNC +10.5
- Virginia vs UNC Over/Under: 51.5 Total Points
- Virginia vs UNC Moneyline: Virginia ML -400, UNC ML +310
Virginia vs UNC Saturday CFB Preview
Virginia Cavaliers
Virginia’s offense has quietly become one of the most efficient units in the ACC. The Cavaliers rank 39th nationally in Success Rate, 28th in Finishing Drives and 10th in third-down conversion rate, all signs of a team that executes at a high level.
They may not live off explosive plays (49th in explosiveness), but they’re methodical and consistent, always moving the chains and staying ahead of schedule.
What makes this group even tougher to stop is balance. They can run tempo when needed (41st in plays per minute) but are comfortable grinding out long drives.
Virginia also starts in good field position (24th nationally), which gives it more scoring opportunities than most teams. This offense doesn’t waste possessions — when it crosses midfield, points usually follow.
That’s why a team total over play makes sense. The Hoos have topped that number in four of their six games and now face one of the softest defenses they’ll see all season.
They've also scored 30 or more points in all but one game so far in 2025.
North Carolina Tar Heels
After embarrassing losses to TCU, UCF and Clemson to start the season, the Tar Heels showed signs of life against Cal.
While there are no moral victories in college football, a last-second loss to a decent opponent has been the most promising game of the Bill Belichick tenure in Chapel Hill.
After being known for being all about ball, the football in North Carolina may not be a top-five reason anyone tunes into a UNC game this year.
There have been anecdotes released that are difficult to square with the coach in New England. And maybe the most embarrassing anecdote of all? A Belichick defense getting called soft by noted ball-knower Action Analytics.
On paper, North Carolina has some talent, but its defensive metrics tell a different story. The Tar Heels rank 79th in Defensive Success Rate, 87th in third-down defense and 100th in Finishing Drives allowed, meaning opponents not only move the ball but routinely turn those drives into points.
They struggle to disrupt plays (111th in Havoc) and give up far too many explosive gains (94th in Explosiveness allowed). Even average offenses have found ways to stay on schedule against this group.
Add in the fact that North Carolina ranks 102nd in hard stops and 119th in returning production, and it’s clear this is a defense still trying to find its identity and failing.
The Heels are allowing teams to dictate tempo, consistently losing early downs and surrendering long, sustained drives that gas the front seven.
Facing a Virginia team that thrives in these exact game states — efficient on first down, deadly in the red zone — this looks like another long night for the Tar Heels defense.
Virginia vs UNC NCAAF Week 9 Pick
This matchup points squarely toward Virginia’s offense continuing to produce. The Cavaliers have been one of the most efficient units in the ACC, and they’re catching a North Carolina defense that simply hasn’t shown the ability to get consistent stops.
Virginia’s offensive profile — top-40 in Success Rate and top-30 in Finishing Drives — fits perfectly against a Tar Heel defense ranked near the bottom nationally in those same categories.
That said, we’re stopping short of taking the Virginia spread for one key reason: North Carolina quarterback Gio Lopez is back to full strength and has a game under his belt.
Before his injury, Lopez was one of the few bright spots for UNC, and his ability to extend plays and create explosive moments makes the Tar Heels a live underdog in any given week (as we saw against Cal last week).
Lopez’s mobility can neutralize some of Virginia’s defensive edge and keep North Carolina within striking distance, even if the defense continues to give up points.
The safer angle is isolating Virginia’s offense. Its efficiency, field position advantage and consistent red-zone execution all point toward another 30-plus-point outing
The Cavaliers should move the ball at will against a porous North Carolina defense, but Lopez’s return gives enough variance to avoid a side bet.
Pick: Virginia Team Total Over 31.5 (-104)
Virginia vs UNC Trend to Watch
