Welcome to Week 13 of the college football season. With the second-to-last full Saturday slate of the season coming up, let's take a look at our favorite NCAAF favorite bets for Saturday, Nov. 23.
You may be familiar with our weekly moneyline underdog article. Well, we decided a couple of years ago that we needed to show love for the other side by also sharing our two favorite college football favorites that we share weekly on the Big Bets on Campus podcast.
We affectionately refer to them as "overdogs," thanks to one of our beloved callers.
This week, we have two bets on our minds.
Collin will get things started with a matchup that has College Football Playoff implications between Notre Dame and Army, while I'll head over to the Mountain West for Colorado State and Fresno State.
Let's take a look at our Week 13 college football predictions and favorite NCAAF favorites for Saturday, Nov. 23.
Collin Wilson: Notre Dame -14 vs. Army
| Army Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+14 -110 | 45.5 -110o / -110u | +475 |
| Notre Dame Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-14 -110 | 45.5 -110o / -110u | -650 |
I'm going against Stuckey's pick and taking Notre Dame for my favorite favorite here.
I just don't see any resistance from Army when it's going up against this Notre Dame rushing attack.
Remember, Army's strength of schedule is 133rd in the nation. Facing that schedule, its defense has a 41% Success Rate against inside zone run concepts, which is what the Fighting Irish run. I think they're going to gash this Black Knights defense from down to down with Jeremiyah Love, Jadarian Price and Riley Leonard.
Looking at the other side of the ball, Notre Dame had absolutely no problems defending Navy's play-action pass. Expect defensive coordinator Al Golden to have a game plan ready to go against Bryson Daily and Co.
Army could find a bit of success running the ball, but it won't compare to what Notre Dame does on the ground offensively.
Give me the Fighting Irish to hand the Black Knights their first loss of the season and keep their College Football Playoff hopes alive.
Stuckey: Fresno State -3 vs. Colorado State
| Colorado State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2.5 +102 | 44.5 -115o / -105u | +126 |
| Fresno State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2.5 -124 | 44.5 -115o / -105u | -152 |
Colorado State certainly has benefited from an extremely favorable league schedule that doesn't include Boise or UNLV after only winning two nonconference games against Northern Colorado and UTEP.
There have definitely been some misleading final scores in part due to a +7 turnover margin, favorable matchups against porous run defenses and key opposing injuries.
Well, now the opposite holds true for Colorado State, which got very beat up last week against Wyoming.
In their new offensive identity, the Rams have relied on the excellent running back tandem of Avery Morrow and Justin Marshall. Well, both left last Friday with injuries, so their health remains a major question this weekend.
Consequently, the Rams might have to be much more reliant on freshman Jalen Dupree.
On the other side of the ball, top cornerback Dom Jones also went to the locker room with an injury. He would be a major loss for a secondary that doesn't have great talent or depth on the perimeter.
It's worth noting Fresno State recently saw the return of left tackle Jacob Spomer two games ago. When he went down with an injury late last season, the offense completely cratered, and that position had been a glaring weakness until he came back.
The offensive line is now in much better shape. Combine that with quarterback Mikey Keene picking it up over the last few weeks, and the Bulldogs have some good things going for them.
They should also get Dean Clark back at safety, although they could be without a key receiver and starting cornerback.
However, they still have enough juice on the outside to take advantage of this potentially shorthanded Colorado State secondary, and the Rams don't really have elite wide receiver talent sans Horton.
The Rams do have a legit run defense but can be exploited through the air, ranking outside the top 100 in Pass Success Rate allowed. Fortunately for Fresno, that's exactly where it wants to attack, as it ranks 106th in rush rate.
The Fresno run defense is definitely more vulnerable than its secondary, but it has enough capable bodies to contain Colorado State in this one.
Situationally, this is a big game for Fresno State's bowl hopes, as the Bulldogs are sitting on five wins with a road trip to UCLA on deck. I expect max effort in their final home game out of the bye after getting upset by Air Force.
Plus, getting to play spoiler should provide them with some extra mojo against a Colorado State team that doesn't have much experience in this pressure-filled role.
On the surface, I have Fresno power-rated higher than Colorado State. For what it's worth, with a slightly tougher overall schedule, the Bulldogs are a net 0.3 yards per play better than the Rams against FBS foes excluding garbage time, ranking 37th nationally in that department.
I believe this is a favorable matchup and great buy-low/sell-high spot with some potential key absences for Colorado State.
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