For Week 9's afternoon slate, I have five situational spots circled.
I'm targeting two Power Conference 'dogs, a Mountain West 'dog, and the Cyclones laying under a field goal in Ames against the red-hot Cougars.
Read on for my Week 9 NCAAF predictions and picks, and check out all of my Week 9 situational spots here.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 3:30 p.m. | South Carolina +12.5 |
  | 3:30 p.m. | Iowa State -2.5 |
  | 3:30 p.m. | NC State +6.5 |
  | 3:30 p.m. | Fresno State +3.5 |
  | 4 p.m. | Baylor +4.5 |
South Carolina +12.5 vs. Alabama
3:30 p.m. ET ⋅ ABC
I've hated this South Carolina team since the preseason.
However, at this price, it's finally time to buy low in a dream situational fade spot of Alabama, which just became the first SEC team to beat four consecutive ranked opponents.
The college football season is usually full of ebbs and flows for each team. They are kids, after all.
And I'd be impressed if we get Alabama's best effort after a quartet of all-out emotional wars against Vanderbilt, Georgia, Missouri, and Tennessee, with no bye week and a couple of revenge spots mixed in there.
While the Tide deserve a ton of credit for their recent winning streak filled with marquee wins, they easily could have lost one or two of those games with just one or two different bounces.
Just last week against Tennessee, they benefited from a 99-yard pick-six at the end of the half and two other red-zone stops. Against Vanderbilt, two red-zone turnovers did the 'Dores in. Georgia easily could have beaten the Tide if not for a wide-open drop. And Missouri had the ball late with a chance to tie or win in Columbia.
Impressive? Certainly, but there's no denying the Tide also benefited from some nice bounces and fourth-down variance over the past month. They didn't even outgain Tennessee or Missouri.
This isn't some unbeatable Alabama super team (especially in the trenches) of years past. This week, the Tide must get up for another game in Columbia for what becomes basically South Carolina's Super Bowl in the exact spot Alabama has struggled in for years against unranked foes.
I expect a maximum effort from the Gamecocks, who I'm sure have had this game circled after coming up two points short in Tuscaloosa last year in a game they should've won. That loss ultimately kept them out of the College Football Playoff.
South Carolina's defense is still playing at a pretty high level, even after losing a plethora of pro talent. The Gamecocks can still generate pressure, which has troubled the Alabama offense at times this season.
It does look like stud pass rusher Dylan Stewart (and others who left the Oklahoma game due to injury) are all practicing, which is a positive sign for Shane Beamer's bunch, which has been bit hard by the injury bug lately.
The primary problem for South Carolina this season has been the offense. It's been gruesome, in large part due to a dysfunctional offensive line.
However, unlike last week's matchup against Oklahoma (and even LSU and Missouri before that), the Tide don't feature a dominant front capable of generating elite-level pressure.
South Carolina still has one of the most talented quarterbacks in the country in LaNorris Sellers, who may actually have some time to make things happen this week.
Mobile quarterbacks have also given Alabama's defense fits in recent seasons, and there's a chance South Carolina can even have some semblance of a complementary ground game against a Tide defense that ranks outside the top 100 nationally in yards per rush allowed.
Before adjusting for the brutal situational spot, I only project South Carolina as a 10-point underdog, so this was an easy add to the card for a spot I had circled for weeks.
Keep in mind that both teams played Vanderbilt, but Sellers missed most of the game due to injury.
Don't be surprised if Alabama comes out flat in the first quarter, which is usually when they excel and build a margin under DeBoer.
Lastly, in what I believe profiles as a lower-scoring game, special teams could also help South Carolina stay close, as the Cocks do have a substantial edge over Alabama in that area.
And maybe a few bounces go their way against a Tide team that has certainly benefited from a few of those this season en route to a top-three turnover margin in the country (+9).
Notable Nugget
Kalen DeBoer has gone 1-4 ATS as a double-digit favorite away from home during his tenure at Alabama, failing to cover by an average of 19.2 points per game. That includes four straight outright losses to unranked teams (Vanderbilt, Michigan, Oklahoma and Florida State).
Meanwhile, Shane Beamer is 6-1 ATS (85.7%) against top-10 opponents at South Carolina with a whopping 16.5 point average cover margin. He has pulled off three outright upsets in those seven tries, including a pair as more than a two-touchdown underdog.
Pick: South Carolina +11.5 or Better
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Iowa State -2.5 vs. BYU
3:30 p.m. ET ⋅ FOX
For the most obvious situational spot on the board, the market isn't giving us a discount on the Cyclones.
However, I do like them at anything under a field goal.
BYU finds itself in the most brutal week of its entire schedule. It has to travel to Ames after two straight hard-fought wins that easily could've gone the other way.
Against Arizona, the Cougars trailed by 10 in the fourth quarter before tying the game on a last-second touchdown (aided by penalties and a lucky fumble recovery) before going on to win in double overtime.
They followed that performance up with an emotional three-point victory over in-state rival Utah in the Holy War. While I do believe BYU deserved the win, Utah did finish with 100 more net yards and helped the Cougs out with a -2 turnover margin, 12 penalties, and three failed fourth-down conversion attempts deep in Cougar territory.
Additionally, this will mark BYU's sixth game in six weeks over a stretch that started with a trip to the East Coast to take on East Carolina (another misleading final score), followed by another road contest in Boulder for another close win.
BYU is a real player in the Big 12 but has undoubtedly been pretty fortunate in close games and in other areas (turnovers, opponent special teams blunders, etc.).
If you had to find the potential flat spot on the BYU schedule, this game would have flashing lights next to it.
While I believe it's a perfect time to sell high on the Cougars ahead of their bye before a showdown with Texas Tech, this may also be the ideal time to buy the dip on Iowa State.
This game comes after two straight close losses and a much-needed bye last week, which will enable it to get a bit healthier, including the likely return of star kicker Kyle Konrardy, whom they have missed sorely over the past few games. With him back in the mix, I give the Cyclones the edge in the special teams department.
Iowa State also had to deal with the loss of its two stud cornerbacks earlier this season. This is a staff that has converted wide receivers into high draft pick cornerbacks in just one season.
The Cyclones will figure some things out on the back end during the break. Plus, it's not like this is a super elite BYU wide receiver room, and Bear Bachmeier certainly has some potential looming turnover regression coming his way (9:5 TD-INT ratio despite a 5:7 BTT-TWP ratio).
My primary concern is whether or not BYU decides to lean on running back LJ Martin behind an excellent offensive line.
Iowa State will likely be without stud defensive tackle Dom Orange, who was listed as doubtful on the first availability report. I did not expect to see that, and it's undoubtedly a significant worry. He's the entire defensive front, and the trickle-down effect could be massive.
The Clones don't generate any pressure, which neutralizes BYU's strength in that department. Hopefully, Jon Heacock's defense can confuse a young signal-caller into a few overdue mistakes.
Lastly, for what it's worth, Iowa State head coach Matt Campbell has thrived following bye weeks. Look no further than their rout of Arizona at home earlier this season. During his time in Ames, Campbell has gone 9-5 ATS (64.3%) following the bye week with a 5.8 point average cover margin (6-2 ATS at home).
Notable Nugget
Top-15 teams coming off an upset win over a ranked opponent have hit at 44% ATS historically in their next game. When that opponent is coming off a bye (like Iowa State), they have gone just 5-19 ATS (20.8%), including 1-9 on the road.
Pick: Iowa State -2.5 or Better
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NC State +6.5 at Pitt
3:30 p.m. ET ⋅ ACC Network
Pitt has won and covered three straight games with new freshman quarterback Mason Heintschel, but some context is needed.
The Panthers destroyed three teams in absolute free-fall mode in Boston College, Florida State, and Syracuse. Those three opponents have lost a combined 13 consecutive games in large part due to injuries.
As a result, Pitt might be a bit overvalued in the market.
Even last week against a Syracuse team already down to a backup quarterback (and was even using a third-string freshman at one point), Pitt could only muster 255 yards in a game with a very misleading final score.
The Orange turned it over three times, went 1-for-3 on fourth down, and flipped the game with horrid clock management in the first half, leading to a Pitt punt return touchdown.
Meanwhile, Florida State just lost to Stanford, and Boston College's backups are getting blown out every week.
Pitt is also beat up on the defensive side of the ball, where you need to beat their aggressive quarters coverage with explosive passes.
Well, NC State is certainly well-equipped to do just that with quarterback CJ Bailey, who will have his two top receivers back at 100% health in addition to the dynamic Hollywood Smothers in the backfield and Justin Joly, one of the best pass-catching tight ends in the country.
Additionally, Pitt's offense still doesn't have a 100% healthy Desmond Reid, who was on a pitch count last week against Syracuse. He's the most explosive player on the roster for the Panthers.
Plus, Syracuse provided a bit of a blueprint for flummoxing Heintschel by using a high rate of twists and stunts up front and an abundance of exotic blitzes, which ultimately led to seven sacks. The book on Heintschel is out, and NC State had plenty of time to read it.
Earlier this season, NC State handed Virginia its only loss and beat a very underrated Wake Forest team on the road. The Pack also outplayed Duke in an unlucky loss on the road.
But they went on a bit of a skid and bottomed out against Notre Dame in South Bend, which is certainly understandable.
Well, the bye came at a perfect time after seven straight games to open the season, which led to several injuries. The Wolfpack will come out of the break much healthier and should look better on both sides of the ball under two new coordinators.
As I've mentioned countless times this season, I really value these bye weeks for teams that had dual coordinator turnover in the offseason. The freshmen on the back end of the defense could particularly benefit from some additional practice time.
This is a perfect opportunity to buy low on the Pack while selling high on the Panthers, who always seem to trip up as hopes rise in the Steel City.
Notable Nugget
With more than 10 days of prep, NC State head coach Dave Doeren has gone 14-6 ATS (70%), covering by four points per game, including 8-3 on the road.
Pick: NC State +6.5 or better (Waiting for +7)
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Fresno State +3.5 vs. San Diego State
3:30 p.m. ET ⋅ FS1
San Diego State has been one of the most pleasant surprises at the Group of Five level in 2025, particularly on defense, where the Aztecs have excelled.
However, the love has gone a bit too far. I can't get to this number, which I project is closer to a coin flip.
While both teams are coming off a bye week, I believe it will benefit Fresno more, since the Bulldogs have a completely new staff. There's also talk of a potential quarterback change.
At the bare minimum, expect some new packages for the more mobile quarterback to spark the run game. That could certainly catch the Aztecs off guard. Regardless, the operation should look a lot smoother.
San Diego State's offense still wants to lean on the run while setting up deep shots, usually to the electric Jordan Napier.
However, Fresno's run defense has been pretty stout, and the Bulldogs have one excellent cornerback who can travel with Napier.
San Diego State's offense scored only six points against 1-6 Northern Illinois, which runs a defense similar to Fresno State's.
I'm sure defensive coordinator Nick Benedetto spent the bye week talking to some of his old friends in DeKalb, where he came from in the offseason.
I'm still not sold on quarterback Jayden Denegal, who has done most of his damage against very poor defenses, while struggling for the most part against the more competent ones in Fresno's neighborhood. You have two weeks to figure out how to contain Napier, Nick!
The Aztecs' lone other road win came against another 1-6 team in Nevada, and they were blown out earlier this season, 36-13, at Washington State.
As you can probably tell, it hasn't been a murderer's row of a schedule for SDSU (133rd SOS, per Sagarin), with four of their five FBS matchups coming against either backup quarterbacks or ones who have since been benched, which has helped boost their defensive profile.
After getting embarrassed at Colorado State before the bye week in a game where Fresno missed a billion tackles, I expect a focused effort here in a battle of two surprise Mountain West teams looking to lock up bowl eligibility before November.
Notable Nugget
SDSU head coach Sean Lewis has gone 8-1 ATS (88.9%) as a road favorite during his two stops at Kent State and San Diego State, covering by 12.33 points per game.
Pick: Fresno State +3 or Better
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Baylor +4.5 at Cincinnati
4 p.m. ET ⋅ ESPN2
Brendan Sorsby has had a fantastic year under center for the Bearcats, who remain in the race for a Big 12 title after a 4-0 start in league play.
However, I believe it's time to sell high on Cincy following four straight wins against Kansas (by three in a coin-flip game), Iowa State (by eight in a great spot against a beat-up team), UCF by nine (outgained by more than 100 yards) and Oklahoma State by 32 in a completely misleading final after some garbage time shenanigans (total yardage was 427-377).
Both offenses rank in the top 25 nationally (although I'd take Baylor if given the choice), and both defenses have significant holes.
The Cincinnati defense has benefited from seeing a couple of backup quarterbacks in recent weeks, but it still can't generate any consistent pressure.
While the run defense is a bit sturdier, that doesn't really matter against Baylor, which can't find any semblance of a ground game.
Quarterback Sawyer Robertson will have all day to sit in the pocket and take advantage of significant advantages on the outside against an overmatched Bearcat secondary.
Yes, you could say the same for the Cincy offense against a bad Baylor defense. And I would agree.
Ultimately, I still have these teams power-rated as essentially equals despite the differences in records. Keep in mind the Bears have played the much more demanding schedule to date.
This screams last team with the ball wins in a high-scoring affair (like most of Baylor's games so far), so I'll happily take the points.
Notable Nugget
Road 'dogs following non-cover streaks of four-plus games (like Baylor) have historically cashed at a 54% clip.
Pick: Baylor +4 or Better
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