Editor's Note: ESPN's Pete Thamel reported that Boston College quarterback Thomas Castellanos will miss Saturday's game, significantly altering the odds and analysis.
Boston College football is back!
The Eagles are 3-1 after a close call in the Red Bandana game against Missouri last week, winning 23-19 under heavy rain. Thomas Castellanos is among the nation’s most electric quarterbacks, and the defense is playing frisky.
That said, Saturday is no cakewalk for BC. Western Kentucky is 3-1 with its only loss coming against Alabama in Tuscaloosa. Behind the up-and-coming Caden Veltkamp, the Hilltoppers have plenty of potential. And the Eagles will reportedly be without Castellanos.
This game will kickoff at 12 p.m. ET on ACC Network on Saturday. With the injury news, the Eagles are now down to 8-point favorites (Boston College -8) on the spread after that number was as big as -13 on Friday. The total checks in at 48.5, dropping six points on the Castellanos absence.
I hate Saturday’s spot for Boston College. So, here's my Western Kentucky vs. Boston College predictions and college football picks for Saturday, Sept. 28.
Western Kentucky vs. Boston College Prediction
- Western Kentucky vs. Boston College Pick: Western Kentucky to cover the spread
My Western Kentucky vs. Boston College best bet is on the Hilltoppers spread, with the best line currently available at DraftKings, according to our live NCAAF odds page.
Western Kentucky vs. Boston College Odds
| W. Kentucky Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+7.5 -110 | 48.5 -110o / -110u | +250 |
| Boston Col Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-7.5 -110 | 48.5 -110o / -110u | -310 |
- Western Kentucky vs. Boston College spread: Boston College -8
- Western Kentucky vs. Boston College over/under: 48.5 points
- Western Kentucky vs. Boston College moneyline: Boston College -310, Western Kentucky +250
Western Kentucky vs. Boston College Football Preview
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers
I think we need to throw out Western Kentucky’s numbers. The metrics are all deflated from a 63-zip opening-day beatdown the ‘Toppers took from Alabama.
Instead, let’s focus on their past two games – at Middle Tennessee and home against Toledo.
Veltkamp is a menace. He shredded MTSU, finishing 27-for-30 passing with nearly 400 yards, five touchdowns, and no picks at 13.3 YPA. The passing attack generated .76 EPA per Dropback, ranking in the 98th percentile of single-game performances. He spread the ball all over the field, hitting five receivers multiple times.
Ultimately, the performance established Veltkamp as WKU’s QB1 over TJ Finley.
He wasn’t as dominant against Toledo, but he mustered together a 20-for-30 passing performance with 250 yards, albeit with two picks.
Western Kentucky’s defense stepped up against the Rockets – who, for context, dropped 41 on Mississippi State the prior week – holding them to 21 points at -0.24 EPA per Play (11th percentile). Tucker Gleason looked lost, and Toledo managed only three YPC.
The win over Toledo was flukey. The Hilltoppers were outgained (325 total yards to 307) at home and needed 16 unanswered fourth-quarter points to pull out the comeback win – they finished with a 10% post-game win expectancy.
The ‘Toppers also have some turnover regression looming. They’ve fumbled six times across the past two games, but only one went for a turnover. Meanwhile, they recovered both Toledo fumbles last Saturday.
Additionally, I’m unsure if the ground game is there. They rushed for just 65 yards at 2.2 YPC last week and mustered only 150 yards at 4.3 YPC the week before – Veltkamp has carried the offense.
I’m unsure why the offensive line ranks outside the top 100 nationally in Line Yards despite returning four starters and over 100 career starts in the offseason.
Boston College Eagles
Castellanos ranks sixth among qualified FBS quarterbacks in EPA per Dropback (0.52), trailing Cam Ward, Kurtis Rourke, Tyler Shough, Jaxson Dart and Drew Allar.
That’s a short list of quality names. He’s talented – some would say he’s a human highlight reel.
He’s averaging over 10 YPA and is the team’s highest-used rusher (43 attempts) – he should continue to see an uptick in rushing production after amassing 1,100 yards last year. The Eagles rank sixth nationally in EPA per Dropback, and it’s all fueled by Castellanos heaves, as they lead the country in Passing Explosiveness.
And he perfectly complements Bill O’Brien’s rush-heavy, 12-personnel offense. However, I am surprised BC’s rushing attack hasn’t gotten off the ground. The Eagles boast an uber-experienced offensive line with three potential NFL guys, yet rank 74th nationally in Line Yards. Treshaun Ward and Kye Robichaux are established collegiate running backs, yet the team ranks 92nd in EPA per Rush and 104th in Rush Success Rate. The production is even more surprising after they ranked seventh nationally in EPA per Rush a year ago.
I’m also surprised that the Eagles keep running the ball despite such lackluster results – they rank 10th nationally in rush rate (64%). However, O’Brien might be rushing lots to set up those Castellanos deep balls.
I think the defense is playing as expected. First-year defensive coordinator Tim Lewis loves to load the box while playing man coverage on the back end, and his uber-experienced front seven has dominated so far. The Eagles returned all four starting linemen from last year’s stop unit, and they rank in the top 25 nationally in Line Yards.
So, it’s not surprising to see the Eagles rank 10th in Rush Success Rate allowed but 56th in Pass Success Rate allowed.
And now, BC will be without its engine on Saturday.
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Western Kentucky and Boston College match up statistically:
Western Kentucky Offense vs. Boston College Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 109 | 10 | |
| Line Yards | 103 | 24 | |
| Pass Success | 49 | 56 | |
| Havoc | 69 | 64 | |
| Finishing Drives | 84 | 28 | |
| Quality Drives | 99 | 70 | |
Boston College Offense vs. Western Kentucky Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 104 | 90 | |
| Line Yards | 74 | 90 | |
| Pass Success | 40 | 132 | |
| Havoc | 89 | 118 | |
| Finishing Drives | 48 | 70 | |
| Quality Drives | 46 | 72 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 17 | 56 |
| PFF Coverage | 125 | 56 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 103 | 45 |
| Middle 8 | 41 | 53 |
| Seconds per Play | 25.6 (35) | 30.2 (119) |
| Rush Rate | 44% (111) | 70% (6) |
Western Kentucky vs. Boston College Pick
I don’t see Boston College getting up and dominating on Saturday.
I think the Eagles are a tad overvalued. Their results haven’t been overly impressive, as they’ve beaten a pathetic Florida State team (28-13), blew out FCS Duquense (56-0), lost to Missouri (27-21), and scraped Michigan State by four despite getting out-gained (368 total yards to 292) – and they needed four Sparty turnovers to pull it out.
The Red Bandana game is an emotional experience for BC players, and the Eagles have a conference road game at Virginia next week. This could be a sleepy, let-down sandwich spot for the Eagles, especially missing their QB.
I also don’t love the matchup for BC. The Eagles want to load the box and stop the run, but Western Kentucky ranks 107th in rush rate, relying solely on airing it out with Veltkamp, who can throw over the top of Boston College’s dominant front seven.
Plus, the Eagles’ blitz shouldn’t bother Veltkamp. The ‘Toppers quarterback is 19-for-22 passing for 308 yards and three touchdowns against the blitz, recording a whopping 14 YPA with a 9.3 average depth of target on those dropbacks. His 91.8 PFF Passing grade against the blitz is amongst the nation’s highest marks.
I worry about Western Kentucky’s secondary, which has struggled (125th in PFF’s Coverage grades, 119th in Pass Explosiveness allowed).
Still, I’m banking on Boston College’s offense starting slow while Veltkamp continues tearing it up. At the minimum, Western Kentucky’s passing attack can stay within the number for 60 minutes, and the back door should be wide open late.
Our Action Network Betting Power Ratings project Boston College as a 9.5-point neutral-field favorite over Western Kentucky. Throw in the Eagles’ home-field advantage, which we project around two points, and I see situational and mathematical value on the ‘Toppers this Saturday in Chestnut Hill.
Pick: Western Kentucky to cover the spread
How to Watch Western Kentucky vs. Boston College Live: Start Time, TV Channel, Location
| Location: | Alumni Stadium, Chestnut Hill, MA |
| Date: | Saturday, Sept. 28 |
| Kickoff Time: | 12 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | ACC Network |
Betting Trends
- Western Kentucky is 3-1 SU and ATS.
- Boston College is 3-1 SU and ATS.
- Western Kentucky is 2-2 to the over.
- Boston College is 3-1 to the under.
