The Cleveland Browns (3-8) and Denver Broncos (7-5) will finish NFL Week 13 tonight on Monday Night Football at 8:15 p.m. ET from Empower Field at Mile High in Denver. The game will be live on ESPN and can be streamed on YouTube TV.
The Broncos are favored by 6.5 points with the game total set at 42 points scored. The Broncos are -275 moneyline favorites, while the Browns are +220 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Browns vs. Broncos prediction and NFL picks for Monday Night Football.
The Browns beat the Steelers in a snowstorm last week. Jameis Winston is now 2-2 as the starting quarterback this season. The Broncos beat the Raiders 29-19 last week. Bo Nix continued his strong season with 2 touchdown passes to Courtland Sutton, but he could be in for a long night against the Browns defense.
Browns vs. Broncos Odds, Prediction
| Browns Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+6.5 -120 | 42 -110o / -110u | +220 |
| Broncos Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-6.5 +100 | 42 -110o / -110u | -275 |
- Browns vs. Broncos Spread: Broncos -6.5 (+100)
- Browns vs. Broncos Game Total: Over/Under 42 points scored
- Browns vs. Broncos Moneyline: Broncos -275, Browns +220
- Browns vs. Broncos Best Bet: Browns +6.5
Find the best lines by using our live NFL odds page.
Spread
Is it time to finally fade the Broncos? I'm giving it a shot. I believe we've finally hit the peak of the market on a Denver team that has already exceeded its preseason win total.
I was ready to bet this at Browns +5.5, but the action has come in on Denver. We'll fade that and take the 6.5 points.
Moneyline
I'll take the points instead of betting the Browns moneyline.
Over/Under
My projection for this game is close enough to the total that I don't have a pick.
My Pick: Browns +6.5 (Bet to +5.5)
Browns vs. Broncos NFL Monday Night Football Preview
You have to give a lot of credit to Sean Payton for what he has done with this Broncos team.
The defense, which marries the ability to get pressure with sticky coverage on the back end led by Patrick Surtain, has been dynamite all season, ranking in the top three in both EPA per Play and Success Rate.
Meanwhile, the offense has been more than serviceable in large part due to one of the more underrated offensive lines in the NFL and the continued progress rookie Bo Nix makes on a weekly basis.
With that said, the Broncos have feasted on a number of weak opponents — six of their seven wins have come against the Raiders and all four NFC South teams.
Digging even deeper, they benefited from playing a number of wounded animals. There was the injury ravaged Saints team starting Spencer Rattler, in addition to the Falcons and Raiders when both were down multiple starting cornerbacks, which coincided with Nix's best two games as a pro.
I think it's finally time to sell high against a Browns defense that generates pressure at the highest rate in the league. That's critical since Nix has been particularly sensitive to pressure, with PFF's third-lowest passing grade among 38 quarterbacks with at least 50 dropbacks under pressure.
In those situations, he has only one Big Time Throw to four Turnover Worthy Plays, with a paltry 56.4% Adjusted Completion Percentage. I expect Jim Schwartz to increase his blitz rates, which should pose problems for Nix.
The Browns have an odd defensive profile for a second straight season. They obviously boast a ton of talent, but are allowing way too many explosive plays with the cornerbacks struggling more than I had expected.
At times, the effort has looked lackadaisical, which has led to an abundance of missed tackles. In fact, per PFF, only the Dolphins grade out worse in tackling.
Despite having a dominant statistical profile in 2023, we did see that at times on the road last year, which is definitely a bit of a concern.
So, will that effort be there on Monday like it was in a home hype spot in primetime against the Steelers? Nick Chubb even stated in his presser that "they all went out there and played harder," which was certainly noticeable during that Thursday night victory and in other divisional games. Can they repeat it? I'm banking on "yes" following the mini-bye.
There will be potential sleepy spots where I look to avoid the Browns for the rest of this season with them out of postseason contention, but I don't think a Monday Night football game against a team in the playoff hunt profiles as one of those.
On the other side of the ball, it's not a great Cleveland offense by any stretch. However, I do think the Browns are a bit undervalued in the market.
They obviously upgraded at quarterback considering how poor Deshaun Watson played before his injury, but more importantly, they are much healthier along the offensive line after dealing with a plethora of injuries up front earlier this year. Plus, Chubb now has no workload restrictions since returning from his injury, which provides Cleveland with life in the backfield.
It's always a roller coaster betting on Jameis Winston, who will have his fair share of spectacular throws and head-scratching moments, which is why I'd much rather back him in the underdog role as opposed to when he's favored.
Trending: As a favorite or underdog of less than a field goal, Winston is 13-28-1 (31.7%) against the spread (ATS), failing to cover by a field goal per game. Out of 242 quarterbacks in our Action Labs database who have been in that situation since 2003, only Jay Cutler has been less profitable.
However, as an underdog of more than a field goal, Winston is 21-10-1 (67.7%) ATS, covering by an average of five points per game. That includes a 13-5-1 (72.2%) ATS mark when catching more than five points.
My Pick: Browns +6.5 (Bet to +5.5)
Browns vs. Broncos Weather
