The Kansas City Chiefs (9-0) and Buffalo Bills (8-2) will face off in NFL Week 11 at 4:25 p.m. ET at Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park, N.Y. The game will be broadcast on CBS and can also be streamed on Paramount+, YouTube TV or other similar streaming services.
Chiefs vs Bills odds (via Caesars Sportsbook) for have the Bills as -160 moneyline favorites and the Chiefs as +135 underdogs. The over/under is set at 47 points (-110o / -110u). On the spread, the Chiefs are +2.5 (+100) and the Bills are -2.5 (-120).
Let's get into my Chiefs vs Bills predictions and pick, plus the latest Week 11 odds, injuries/inactives, betting trends, weather forecast and more.
Chiefs vs Bills Picks
Spread
This is a prime spot to bet on Patrick Mahomes, who has thrived as an underdog in his career. While the Bills will be a tough test for Kansas City, history says you should take points when Mahomes is getting them.
Moneyline
I'll take the points with Mahomes and not bet on the Chiefs moneyline.
Over/Under
I have no bet on the over/under for this game. Kansas City is likely to bounce back.
My Pick: Chiefs +2.5 (+100)
Chiefs vs Bills Odds, Prediction, Spread
| Kansas City Chiefs Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
+2.5 +100 | 47 -110o / -110u | +135 |
| Buffalo Bills Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-2.5 -120 | 47 -110o / -110u | -160 |
- Chiefs vs Bills spread: Chiefs +2.5 (+100), Bills -2.5 (-120)
- Chiefs vs Bills over/under: 47 (-110o / -110u)
- Chiefs vs Bills moneyline: Chiefs +135, Bills -160
- Chiefs vs Bills prediction: Chiefs +2.5 (+100)
MyChiefs vs Bills best bet is on Kansas City. For all of your NFL bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NFL odds page.
Chiefs vs Bills Week 11 Preview Prediction
Yes, the Chiefs are fortunate to still be undefeated. Yes, they’re first in our NFL Luck Rankings.
There’s this idea floating around, though, that they’re like the 2022 Steelers or 2023 Eagles and not actually a good football team. The numbers tell a different story, though.
The Chiefs are third in total DVOA, 10th on offense and fourth on defense. There are four teams in the NFL that rank in the top 10 in both offense and defense (Lions, Chiefs, 49ers and Bills), and they’re clear Super Bowl contenders.
Should Kansas City have lost last week to the Broncos? Yeah, probably. That’s a reasonable assumption.
Could they have lost to the Ravens and Bengals to start the season? Sure. That doesn’t take away from the fact that the two-time-defending champs are still among the NFL’s elite.
We’ve also heard in the past about how the Chiefs start slowly and need to pick it up eventually after a “slow” start to the season. Well, they’ve won back-to-back Super Bowls.
If you were looking for a chance to bet on the Chiefs this season, this is probably it. The trends say this is an ideal spot to bet Patrick Mahomes.
Mahomes is 11-3 straight-up (SU) in his career as an underdog, and he’s 12-1-1 against the spread (ATS) when getting points. That is the best SU record as an underdog in the Super Bowl era for a quarterback with at least 10 starts.
As a favorite of three or fewer points, or an underdog, Mahomes is 25-10 SU and 26-8-1 ATS. The man simply doesn’t get blown out — and most of the time, he wins.
Playing away from Arrowhead hasn’t been a problem for Mahomes either. He’s 48-12 SU in his career on the road or at a neutral site, and he’s 19-5 as a favorite of three or fewer points or an underdog.
There are some trends that indicate this is a spot to back Josh Allen, too. He’s 7-3 SU and ATS as a favorite of three or fewer, or as an underdog, and is covering by 9.6 points per game. Two of those losses, though, were against Mahomes.
These teams are evenly matched, but the Chiefs are undefeated while the Bills have lost to the two best teams they’ve played this season in the Ravens and Texans.
This is a time to avoid overthinking things and simply bet on Mahomes.
My Pick: Chiefs +2.5 (-110)
Chiefs vs Bills Betting Trends
Chiefs Trends
- The totals have gone OVER in 3 of Chiefs' last 5 games
- Chiefs are 2-1 in their road games against the spread
- The Chiefs have a third down conversion rate of 35.0% on 3rd and long this season — best in NFL
Bills Trends
- The totals have gone OVER in 4 of Bills' 4 last games at home
- Bills are 4-1 in their last 5 games against the spread
Chiefs vs Bills Latest Injuries
Chiefs Injuries
| Player | Status |
|---|---|
| DE Charles Omenihu | Out (knee) |
| RB Isiah Pacheco | Out (ankle) |
Bills Injuries
| Player | Status |
|---|---|
| TE Dalton Kincaid | Out (knee) |
| LB Matt Milano | Out (biceps) |
| WR Keon Coleman | Out (wrist) |
| WR Amari Cooper | Active (wrist) |
| OT Spencer Brown | Out (ankle) |
