Last week's NFL slate was billed as the best of the season, and it did not disappoint with tons of exciting matchups from start to finish. We’ll look to keep the momentum rolling with my NFL Week 12 picks, which features another card loaded with playoff implications as we prepare for the season's home stretch.
In this article, I’ll provide an early breakdown of every game on the upcoming NFL schedule, including a handful of bets I’m making early in the week.
NFL Week 12 Predictions, Picks
| Category |
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| Thursday Night Football |
| Passes |
| Leans |
| NFL Picks |
Steelers vs. Browns
After watching the Steelers and Browns’ anemic offenses on Sunday, the betting market jumped on the under for Thursday Night Football, driving the total down from the 41-point opener to the current 36.5. Cleveland’s weather forecast calls for 20-30 mph winds and a mix of rain and snow, which will make life difficult for the offenses.
This game features a couple of Mike Tomlin trends worth mentioning. In his career, Tomlin has gone 85-65-1 (57%) to the under in road games, including 55-28-1 (66%) since 2015. Tomlin is also a good fade as a road favorite as he’s gone 34-41-2 ATS as a road favorite, including 22-35-2 ATS (39%) as a road favorite of over a field goal.
The Steelers’ offense was stymied entirely on Sunday, posting a dreadful 32% offensive success rate. Russell Wilson had his worst game in a Pittsburgh uniform, including an ugly end zone interception. Meanwhile, the Browns’ run game didn’t show up to New Orleans on Sunday, posting a 26% rushing success rate against a porous Saints run defense.
Jameis Winston is a high-variance proposition. He threw for 395 yards and two touchdowns on Sunday and will push the ball downfield, even in poor weather conditions, against a tough Steelers defense. The Browns’ offensive line has gotten healthier, but the offensive production is still frustratingly inconsistent.
Both offenses in this game rank bottom six in early down success rate this season, and points will come at a premium. I lean toward the under and the home 'dog catching over a field goal.
Verdict: Lean Under 36.5 and Browns +3.5
Passes
Cowboys vs. Commanders
For years, we’ve seen Kliff Kingsbury’s offenses slip over the second half of the season, and the Commanders now rank just 16th in offensive EPA/play over the past month. That’s a significant drop-off after they led the league in EPA/play over the first eight weeks. Jayden Daniels' rib injury has been a factor, but it can’t explain all of the inconsistencies.
The Cowboys are playing on a short week, while the Commanders have extended rest after playing on Thursday Night Football last week. With the rest edge and arguably the coaching advantage, Washington should win outright over a beat-up Dallas team. Still, I can’t justify laying 10 points.
Verdict: Pass
Lions vs. Colts
Anthony Richardson played excellent football last week in his first game back as the Colts starter. He posted season-highs with a 16.5% completion rate over expectation, a 106.5 passer rating and two rushing touchdowns. While the Jets have had a disastrous season, they still have an above-average pass defense, so that’s an impressive outing for the second-year quarterback.
Can Richardson repeat that performance against the second-ranked pass defense in the NFL by DVOA? The Lions can put up points in bunches against anyone, so the Colts will need Richardson to keep pace in this game if there’s any chance of putting up a fight. I’m not rushing to get in front of the Lions train.
Verdict: Pass
Buccaneers vs. Giants
Tommy DeVito will get the start for the Giants this week, and Brian Daboll mentioned DeVito's quick release as a positive for the quarterback. He’ll need to get rid of the ball quickly against a Buccaneers defense that ranks seventh in blitz rate. DeVito led the NFL with a staggering 37.4% pressure-to-sack rate last season, so if the Bucs get home, expect them to rack up the sacks.
The Buccaneers should find offensive success against the Giants, who rank 25th in defensive DVOA, especially with the expected return of Mike Evans. However, given how shaky its defense has been, I’m not rushing to lay points with Tampa Bay, which ranks last against the pass by success rate.
Verdict: Pass
Cardinals vs. Seahawks
This game carries enormous playoff implications in a crowded NFC West. According to the New York Times’ interactive playoff simulator, the Cardinals would have a 77% chance to make the playoffs with a win this week and a 45% chance with a loss. The Seahawks, meanwhile, would have a 25% chance with a win and a 6% chance with a loss.
Seattle’s offensive line continues to be its fatal flaw, ranking 25th in pass-block win rate. The Cardinals are just 31st in pass-rush win rate, so they aren’t built to take advantage. It could spell significant trouble if Geno Smith has time in the pocket to attack Arizona’s 29th-ranked pass defense by success rate.
Meanwhile, Seattle’s run defense has been a liability at times this season, ranking 28th against the run by EPA on early downs, and Arizona has one of the most unique rushing attacks in the league. Mike Macdonald needs a strong game plan for his Seahawks' defense to avoid James Conner slicing them up on the ground.
I see paths to success for both offenses and don’t have a strong take on who comes out on top. The total also looks about right at 47.5 points. This should be an exciting game on Sunday afternoon, and I’ll be looking for player prop angles.
Verdict: Pass
Leans
Chiefs vs. Panthers
The Chiefs finally suffered their first loss at the hands of the Buffalo Bills on Sunday, and we’ll see a ticked-off Kansas City team take the field this week. The Panthers are coming off a bye week that will allow them to get healthier, but that won’t cure all that ails the league’s worst defense by success rate. If there were a spot for Patrick Mahomes to have a signature game, it would be this one — especially with Isiah Pacheco expected to return.
The Panthers, meanwhile, will struggle to sustain drives against the Chiefs’ defense that ranks fourth against the run by DVOA. If Carolina has to resort to more of a dropback passing game with its rushing attack neutralized, we’ll see Bryce Young under heavy fire against the blitz. Young ranks 38th out of 40 qualified quarterbacks with 4.8 YPA against the blitz.
I’m not typically in the habit of laying over 10 points with a road favorite in the NFL, but I might have to make an exception here. This one could get ugly.
Verdict: Lean Chiefs -10.5
Patriots vs. Dolphins
The Patriots and Dolphins are facing off for the second time this season, and this matchup features more firepower than the prior meeting. With Drake Maye taking over for Jacoby Brissett and Tua Tagovailoa back in the lineup, replacing Tyler Huntley, the quarterback battle features significantly more intrigue.
Maye has flashed tremendous upside, but there’s only so much he can do in the context of this Patriots offense. New England ranks last in pass-block win rate this season, putting Maye under constant fire. Luckily, he ranks seventh in the NFL in EPA/DB under pressure and third in scramble rate (18.1%), where he’s used his legs as a weapon.
Miami ranks just 25th in pressure rate and 23rd in passing success rate allowed, so this is a matchup where Maye should find some success. Meanwhile, the Patriots defense will likely struggle. It ranks 31st in pass defense DVOA and allowed Matthew Stafford to throw for four touchdowns last week.
I’d bet on both offenses over their defensive counterparts in this game and expect to see some scoring from these AFC East rivals.
Verdict: Lean Over 46 Points
Titans vs. Texans
Can the Titans finally cover a spread? Will Levis has been playing some of the best football of his career over the past two weeks. I was concerned about his ability to hold up against the Vikings’ blitzing defense last week, but he completed 8-of-11 passes for 202 yards and a touchdown against the blitz. However, Houston presents another challenging matchup as the Texans rank fourth in pass defense DVOA.
The Texans’ offense has struggled to maintain consistency all season. It ranks 31st in early down offensive success rate, ahead of only the Browns. The return of Nico Collins should undoubtedly help. Still, he only played 47% of snaps on Monday Night Football. Houston will likely continue to manage his workload to ensure he’s healthy for the postseason, especially with the division race all but over.
C.J. Stroud is 8-4 ATS as an underdog and just 6-10 ATS as a favorite in his career, and I don’t have faith in the Texans' offense to pull away from a competent Titans' defense that’s 11th in DVOA. My biggest concern would be Tennessee losing the turnover battle. Houston ranks second in pass-rush win rate and Tennessee ranks 30th in pass-block win rate, setting up a serious mismatch.
Verdict: Lean Titans +8.5
49ers vs. Packers
The Packers will seek playoff revenge over the 49ers on Sunday at Lambeau Field, and the market is backing Green Bay at home early in the week. The spread for this game opened at around a pick ‘em on Sunday afternoon and has since been bet up to Packers -2.5.
While I’ve been impressed by some of new defensive coordinator Jeff Hafley’s play-calling, I’m still not entirely sold on the Packers defense, which ranks last in early down success rate allowed. Per FTN, Green Bay also ranks last in open-field rushing yardage allowed, so this could be a breakthrough game for Christian McCaffrey as he’s getting healthier.
The 49ers will also make Jordan Love’s life difficult in this game with their third-ranked pass defense by DVOA. Defensive end Nick Bosa’s status will be essential to monitor after he left Sunday's game early. Keep an eye on George Kittle’s status, as well, after he missed last week’s game.
This doesn’t quite qualify as a luck game due to these teams’ differentials, but it’s worth noting that the Packers sit atop the Action Network Luck Rankings while the 49ers are 27th. In particular, positive regression should be coming in the red zone, where the 49ers rank 26th in touchdown rate this season.
I’m not rushing to the window at the current numbers, but I’d be interested in the 49ers at +3 or better.
Verdict: Lean 49ers +2.5
NFL Week 12 Picks
Vikings vs. Bears
It’s always important not to overreact to a one-game sample size, but I was highly encouraged by the Bears’ offense last week. Under interim offensive coordinator Thomas Brown, several changes were immediately apparent. The Bears used more designed quarterback runs and encouraged Caleb Williams to scramble more. They also utilized D.J. Moore in the screen game, gave D’Andre Swift carries to the outside, where he thrives, and used Roschon Johnson on the goal line, all incredibly +EV moves.
None of that would have been possible without a spirited effort from a now-healthy offensive line. With tackles Braxton Jones and Darnell Wright back in the lineup, Williams was pressured on just 28.2% of his dropbacks, his lowest pressure rate since Week 5. The Bears posted a 49% offensive success rate, which would rank among the elites in the NFL this season.
Williams posted 7.5 YPA and 4.8% CPOE, which were tremendous improvements over his 4.9 YPA and -4.8% CPOE from Weeks 8-10. This week, he faces a Vikings defense that blitzes at the highest rate in the NFL. Against the Packers’ blitz last week, Williams completed 8-of-10 passes for 87 yards with one big-time throw. Brown is giving him far more outlets when he’s in those situations.
The Bears’ pass defense remains a significant strength as they rank second against the pass by EPA/play. This game represents a considerable challenge for Sam Darnold. The Bears are much more vulnerable against the run, ranking 31st by DVOA, but I don’t believe the Vikings will take advantage. Aaron Jones is playing through injury, and he and Cam Akers combined for 63 yards on 25 carries last week (2.5 YPC).
Chicago’s late-game management under Matt Eberflus will always leave something to be desired, and Kevin O’Connell has a demonstrated edge in that department. Still, we’re getting over the key number of three with the home divisional 'dog. Between an offense trending up and an excellent pass defense, this team is worth backing. I’m ready to get hurt by the Bears again.
Verdict: Bet Bears +3.5
Broncos vs. Raiders
The Raiders fired offensive coordinator Luke Getsy, but it’s not likely to fix their league-worst offense by EPA/play. Sunday was another example of ugly offensive production for Las Vegas, especially in the run game — Alexander Mattison and Zamir White combined for 28 yards on 10 carries (2.8 YPC). Las Vegas ranks last in adjusted line yards on offense, and Denver ranks sixth on defense, so it’s unlikely the Raiders will find a consistent run game.
With an offense stalling out on early downs, expect Gardner Minshew to be consistently exposed in third-and-long situations. He ranks 35th out of 40 qualified quarterbacks in PFF’s passing grades under pressure, and Denver ranks fourth in pressure rate this season. Brock Bowers is having an excellent rookie season, and he’s a great outlet for Minshew, but he’s the only skill player on this offense striking any sort of fear in defenses.
Meanwhile, the Broncos’ offense has continued to trend up, ranking above average by EPA/play over the past month. Bo Nix is coming off his best game and over the past month, he ranks seventh in EPA+CPOE among 36 qualified quarterbacks. Denver has the top offensive line in the league by pass-block win rate this season. The Broncos’ wide receivers lack superstar talent, but the Raiders are 28th in pass defense success rate, so this is another matchup where Nix should thrive through the air.
Denver dominated the box score when these teams met earlier this season, posting a 47% early down success rate compared to 33% for Las Vegas. The Broncos have a massive coaching edge with Sean Payton over Antonio Pierce, and that will play out in several ways in this contest. Payton leads Denver to its first-ever win over the Raiders in Las Vegas in dominant fashion this week.
Verdict: Bet Broncos -5.5
Eagles vs. Rams
It’s hard to believe the Eagles' defense finished 31st in EPA/play over the second half of last season. Legendary defensive coordinator Vic Fangio has Philadelphia playing rejuvenated football on that end of the field. Since their Week 5 bye, the Eagles have the best defense in the NFL by EPA/play and success rate.
Fangio will have an excellent defensive game plan for the Rams here, and while Los Angeles is coming off its best offensive showing of the season, it happened against the Patriots, who rank 31st in pass defense DVOA. The Eagles are fifth in that department, and rookie defensive backs Quinyon Mitchell and Cooper DeJean have been immediate difference makers.
The Rams’ defense has been much improved in recent weeks, and they rank sixth in pressure rate thanks to a talented young group led by rookie Jared Verse. However, the Eagles have one of the best offensive lines in the NFL, especially now that left tackle Jordan Mailata is healthy. Philadelphia ranks second in the league in pass-block win rate.
Los Angeles hasn’t faced a rushing attack nearly as potent as the one that Saquon Barkley and Jalen Hurts provide, and the Rams rank just 24th in defensive stuff rate, according to FTN. The Eagles should be able to churn out yards on the ground, controlling time of possession and keeping Matthew Stafford off the field.
With the Eagles -2.5 still available at -120 juice early in the week, I’ll bite before this line moves to -3 universally. Philadelphia continues to surge up the rankings as a contender in the NFC, and this looks like another opportunity for a statement win on Sunday Night Football.
Verdict: Bet Eagles -2.5 (-120 or better)
Ravens vs. Chargers
The Ravens are coming off a close road loss against their divisional rival, but I expect a bounce back on Monday Night Football. Baltimore’s offense is still the best in the NFL by DVOA, and Lamar Jackson remains a frontrunner for the MVP trophy. The Chargers defense has improved under Jim Harbaugh and Jesse Minter, but they’ve faced the easiest schedule of opposing defenses, and Jackson presents a far more significant challenge.
The underlying metrics suggest the Chargers will struggle to contain Derrick Henry and the Baltimore run game. Per FTN, Los Angeles ranks just 23rd in defensive adjusted line yards and 22nd in stuff rate, but they haven’t faced many rushing attacks capable of exposing those deficiencies. If the Chargers opt to load the box, Jackson can pick apart a defense that sits back in zone two-high zone and allows completions over the middle.
I still have questions about the Chargers’ offense, which ranks 29th in early-down success rate this season. For comparison, the Ravens are third in that same metric. In particular, the Chargers’ run game has begun to slow down tremendously, which we saw become a significant issue in their near loss to the Bengals last week. That’s unlikely to change against the Ravens, who rank second in early down run defense success rate.
You want to back John Harbaugh and Lamar Jackson in these spots. Over the past four seasons, Jackson is 18-4 ATS (82%) as a favorite of 3 points or less or an underdog, and he’s 25-5 ATS (83%) in that spot in his career in the regular season. However, my favorite value is on the first-half line. Jackson is unimpeachable in covering the spread in the first half. He’s 56-36-2 ATS (61%) in his career, including 31-14-1 ATS (69%) in the first half in road or neutral situations.
The Chargers’ offense could succeed in a trailing game script in the second half. Justin Herbert has been playing as well as any quarterback in the NFL, and the Ravens still have some deficiencies in the secondary. However, I expect the Ravens to get off to a much stronger start with the significantly better run game and run defense, taking the lead to halftime at SoFi Stadium in the Harbowl.
Verdict: Bet Ravens 1H -0.5
