The turkey has been eaten, the sides devoured and now we are going back for seconds. Here is the rest of the slate for the weekend and we have some big spreads.
Let's look at this week's slate and go over the betting trends, stats and notes you need to know. Here's Week 13 of Action Network's weekly NFL betting primer.
Here is a preview of the Thanksgiving Day and Black Friday games primer.
All data, stats and trends are updated as of Wednesday, Nov. 26, at 8 p.m. ET. Credit to Bet Labs and SDQL for a lot of the betting queries.
Top NFL Things To Know
Public Problem
Gone in 60 Seconds
End the madness.
According to Action Network's betting data, NFL teams getting 60% of tickets or more are 42-73 ATS (36.5%) through 12 weeks entering the Thanksgiving slate.
These 60%+ ticket teams are below .500 ATS in 11 of 12 weeks. The 36.5% mark is the worst through 12 weeks in the 23-year history of our database.
Here's the kicker. In games played in the 1p ET window or earlier, these 60%+ ticket teams are 15-46 ATS; later than that, 27-27 ATS.
Tide Turn
Early Window Chaos
The early 1 p.m. ET window on Sunday has been a wild ride this season.
- In the first 8 weeks of the season, favorites went 39-20 ATS, going .500 ATS or better in all 8 weeks, including 42-17 (71%) 1H ATS.
- Since Week 9, favorites are now 7-21-1 ATS in the early window, including 6-23 against the 1H spread.
Big Numbers
Hello Eli
➤ As a road favorite, the Rams and Sean McVay are 37-8 SU and 28-17 ATS in that spot, winning 15 in a row outright.
As above a 4-point favorite on the road or neutral site, McVay and the Rams are 20-0 SU, winning by 13.7 PPG (he is 12-8 ATS in those games, 19-0-1 in a 6-point teaser).
➤ We have a team .500 on the season, at 6-6 in Carolina, currently about a double-digit home underdog this week.
The last time we saw a .500 or better team, 10+ games into the season, as a double-digit home dog with their starting QB in? The 2007 Giants with Eli Manning against the Patriots in Week 17. Giants lost 38-35, but covered the 13-point spread.
Points Beware
Scoring ≠ Cover
Teams scoring 24 pts or more are 118-53 ATS (69%) this season. That would be the 2nd-lowest mark over a full season since 1990. The lowest came in the 2020 COVID year at 67%.
Bad Starters
Saints Early
Saints are 1-10 against the 1st quarter spread this season, the worst mark in the NFL. New Orleans has been outscored 85-19 in the eleven 1st quarters.
Pound of Horrors
Cleveland at Home
Cleveland is a house of horrors for good teams traveling on the road.
Since 2020, the Browns are 13-5 SU at home vs. teams above .500 on the season. Cleveland has profited a $100 bettor $1,281 in that span, the best mark of any team in the NFL.
When the Browns are away from home vs. teams above .500, they are 5-18 SU in that span.
Post Turkey Impact
Hello, Weekend
After the holiday games, family, meals, rest, change of schedule, etc. What are the results of the Sunday and Monday games after Thanksgiving through the years?
- The under has gone .500 or better in 7 of the last 8 years for the Sunday and Monday games the week of Thanksgiving, including 13 of the last 18 years.
- Home teams after Thanksgiving in the Sunday/Monday window are .500 ATS or better in 11 straight seasons, in that span they are 84-54 ATS (61%).
Every NFL Game For Week 1
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➤Brock Purdy’s last trip to Cleveland was a rainy, windy game and he finished 12-27 for 125 yards, TD and INT with a fumble on the field, scoring 17 pts in a loss on the road.
San Francisco has lost in four straight trips to Cleveland, with its last win coming back in 1984. The 49ers have scored 17, 10, 7 and 13 pts in those four trips.
➤Cleveland is a house of horrors for good teams traveling on the road.
Since 2020, the Browns are 13-5 SU at home vs. teams above .500 on the season. Cleveland has profited a $100 bettor $1,281 in that span, the best mark of any team in the NFL.
When the Browns are away from home vs. teams above .500, they are 5-18 SU in that span.
➤It’s the Myles Garrett show. He has 18 sacks through 11 team games, the most we’ve seen since sacks were recorded in 1982.
Most sacks first 11 team games:
- 2025 Myles Garrett: 18
- 1984 Mark Gastineau: 17.5
- (1987 Reggie White had 19 in his first 11 games vs. team)
Let’s look at some crazy Garrett stats entering the Week 13 slate.
- He has a 27.9% win rate on 315 pass snaps – win rate is “pct of 'wins'” vs. blocking on pass rush snaps” via PFF. There have been 226 pass rushes with 100+ snaps, which is the highest pct of any player.
- Garrett has a sack% of 6.4% on 250 pass rushes. The next highest mark for 100+ pass rushes this year is Brian Burns at 4.6% via Sports Info Solutions. We haven’t seen a player with 200+ pass rushes and a 5% sack% since Robert Quinn in 2021.
- When the Browns are trailing, Garrett has a 7.8% sack% and a 20% pressure% this season via SIS. The closest DL with 50+ snaps in both categories:
- Danielle Hunter at 5% sack rate when trailing
- Will Anderson at 19% pressure% when trailing
➤Just an all-time performance from the Browns' defense last week with 10 total sacks. Since 2000, teams with 9+ sacks in their last game are 21-26 ATS and 10+ sacks went just 5-9 ATS.
➤Last week? The most popular Browns bet in 20+ years is closing with 81% of the tickets. This week, a 50/50 bet heading into the weekend in terms of tickets.
When the public can’t decide on a Browns game, fade Cleveland. Since the start of last year, the Browns are 2-11 ATS when their bet% is set between 40% and 60% on the closing line.
➤The Browns are coming off a SU win against the Raiders last week, not only that, but a double-digit win.
Since the start of last year, Cleveland is 0-5 ATS after a SU win, failing to cover the spread by 11.2 PPG in that span – the 0-5 ATS mark is the most losses without a win of any team in that span.
After the Browns win their previous game by double-digits, they are 14-28 ATS in their next game dating back to 2005.
➤Panthers and 49ers both have a bye coming up after this week and are facing opponents not in the same spot. In the last decade, teams with upcoming rest (facing a team with no rest) are winning 57% of games and covering 58.2%.
➤Shedeur Sanders became the first Browns QB to win his first start for the Browns since Eric Zeier in 1995. How about two in a row to start their careers? That’s only been done by one QB — Paul McDonald, back in 1982.
➤Not the best history for Trevor Lawrence and the Titans.
- Lawrence is 1-2 SU/ATS in Tennessee
- Lawrence is 2-4 ATS vs. Titans, 1-2 ATS as a favorite
Overall in division games, Lawrence is 11-12 SU, including just 4-7 SU on the road, losing 3 in a row.
➤We have a winning streak. ATS that is. Titans have now covered 3 in a row.
Tennessee broke a 9-game ATS losing streak after an ATS win in Week 9 against the Chargers – now Tennessee has covered 3 straight for the first time since November of 2022.
You have to go all the way back to Week 4 of 2024 to find the last time the Titans scored more TDs than their opponent in a single game and they haven’t done it at home since Week 18 of 2023.
➤The Jaguars turned it over 4 times last week and they forced no turnovers and still beat the Cardinals in overtime – just the 2nd team since 2008 to win on the road while losing the TO battle by 4+.
In the last 20 years, teams to turn it over 3+ times and force no turnovers in a win are 12-5 SU, but just 4-11-2 ATS in their next game.
➤Jaguars played an overtime game on the road vs. the Cardinals last week, where the Jags' defense was on the field for 76 plays.
Since 2001, teams off OT on the road (opp. not), where defense is on the field for 70+ plays, and on the road again, are 18-31 SU, losing by 3.5 PPG.
➤Jaguars late down passing has been horrendous. Last week, they had a -1.84 EPA/play on 9 late down pass downs. This season, they are 27th in dropback EPA on 3rd and 4th down and 24th in dropback success rate.
➤Colts defense was on the field for 91 plays last week against the Chiefs, going to overtime.
Last 30 years, defenses that are on the field for 90+ plays the week before, the team is just 12-26 SU and 15-21-2 ATS in their next game.
➤The Texans have beaten the Colts in three straight meetings entering this matchup, Houston’s 1st 3-game win streak over Indy since 2015-16 – They’ve never beaten the Colts four straight times in franchise history.
The Texans started their franchise history 0-13 SU on the road in Indianapolis, losing outright from 2002 to 2014, before their first win came from Brandon Weeden in 2015. Since then, Houston is 6-4 SU in Indy, and they’ve won three straight on the road vs. the Colts.
➤Daniel Jones played in New York for six seasons. In that time, he went 5-9 ATS as a favorite.
In not even one season with the Colts, he’s 4-3 ATS as a favorite and can match his ATS win mark with the Giants this week.
➤Texans have played on extended rest/prep time twice this season before this week against the Colts and they are 0-2 SU/ATS, losing to the Seahawks on the road and the Bucs at home.
➤Texans are a top-notch defense, allowing 16.5 PPG this year, the best mark in the NFL.
In November or later, Daniel Jones has faced a defense allowing under 20 PPG eight times. After facing the Chiefs last week, he is 1-6-1 SU in those games.
➤With the Colts, Daniel Jones is 2-0 SU/ATS vs. the AFC South, beating the Titans in both games. Now is the real test.
➤Texans are coming off a game vs. the Bills on Thursday Night Football. Teams after facing the Bills are actually 7-3 ATS this season, including 17-10 ATS since the start of last season, a top-3 mark for any previous opposing team in the NFL.
➤For the 5th consecutive season, the Texans are above .500 against the first half spread, this year currently at 6-5. Since 2021, Houston is 53-30 1H ATS, 2nd in the NFL only to the Lions.
➤Texans have the Chiefs on deck next week. Since 2020, teams with KC on the horizon are 65-40-1 ATS, covering the spread by over 2 PPG.
➤Colts let one get away last week. Teams that trail by 11+, get no sacks on defense and lose the TO battle by 2+ were 5-338 (1.5%) in the last 20 years. 6-338 after KC got the win last week.
Never easy to blow a lead to Mahomes, but it happens. Since 2021, 8 teams have led by more than one possession (9+ pts) vs. the Chiefs and lost outright. Those teams went 6-2 SU and 5-2-1 ATS in their next game.
➤Last year, the Dolphins came off a bye week, playing without Tua Tagovailoa, who was coming off an injury.
Overall, this is the 4th time Mike McDaniel will coach a game off a bye week. The Dolphins are 2-1 SU, but 1-2 ATS, and 2-0 SU when Tua is starting the game.
Miami’s defense has played well off bye under McDaniel, allowing 16, 13 and 15 in the three matchups.
When McDaniel has coached a team on extended rest, the Dolphins are 5-8 ATS, including 3-6 ATS when listed as a favorite.
➤The duo of McDaniel and Tagovailoa has been good on South Beach. They are 19-8 SU and 16-11 ATS at home, but in 2025, they are 2-3 SU at home after going 17-5 SU in their first three seasons.
➤The under has cashed in 7 straight Saints games entering this week. Since 2022, the under is 39-23 in all 62 total Saints games, the 2nd-best mark in the NFL behind just the Texans.
As a starting QB, Tyler Shough is 3-0 to the under, going under the total by 7 PPG.
➤Saints are 1-10 against the 1st quarter spread this season, worst mark in the NFL. New Orleans has been outscored 85-19 in the eleven 1st quarters.
Dating back to 2020, here are the worst 1Q ATS marks over a full season:
2021 Packers: 3-15 1Q ATS
2024 Bears: 4-12-1 1Q ATS
2021 Jaguars: 4-12-1 1Q ATS
➤Since 2003, teams with a win pct under 40%, coming off a bye and are favored, are just 33-44-3 ATS (43%), including 2-9 ATS over the last three seasons. This week, that is the Dolphins at home vs. the Saints.
➤We might be in for more of this from Taysom Hill with the Alvin Kamara injury.
Taysom Hill in Week 12:
- 24 snaps
- 10 rush attempts (led team)
- 5 routes
- 2 dropbacks
➤The Dolphins and Commanders play this week, coming off a full bye week after facing off in Madrid in the last overseas game of the season.
Home favorites, coming off 14+ days between an overseas game and their next game, a full week bye, are 14-5-2 in the first quarter of their next game, including 14-7 SU in those games over the full game.
➤Kirk Cousins will get the remainder of the starts in Atlanta with Michael Penix out for the year. This will be his second start as a favorite this year, a role he has struggled in – he’s 0-1 ATS as a favorite this year and 19-25-1 ATS since 2020.
➤The question is always the same with the Falcons: Can they do it again? The Falcons haven’t finished a season above .500 ATS after a SU win since 2019 – they are 11-23-1 ATS after a win since 2020, the worst mark for any team in the NFL.
In Cousins’ career, he is 33-45-1 ATS after his team won the previous game outright.
➤A sense of relief for the Falcons last week, breaking a 5-game losing streak by beating the Saints on the road.
Last 20 years, teams off breaking a 5+ game losing streak in their 10th game or later are winning just 38% of games outright. Last 5 years, they are 6-15 SU and 8-11-2 ATS.
➤Nobody loves covering a spread they shouldn’t more than Tyrod Taylor. He is 36-21-4 ATS (63%) in his career. Since the start of 2022, he is 6-0-1 ATS in 7 starts.
This is also Tyrod’s specialty. When his team is under .500 SU, he is 16-5-1 ATS, including 11-2-1 ATS as an underdog.
➤Forget just the Jets, Falcons have faced the Jets and Giants a total of seven times since 2015 and they are 7-0 SU, including going 5-0 SU just since 2021.
➤Since 2020, the Falcons have played on the road again directly after playing on the road in New Orleans; here are the results of those games:
- Lost 38-6 at DEN, 2024
- Lost 17-9 at BAL, 2022
- Lost 43-3 at DAL, 2021
➤When Atlanta’s opponent leads by 4 pts or more at any point in the game, the Falcons are 0-7 SU this season, including losing 9 in a row dating back to last year (1-13 SU in their last 14 games in this spot).
➤In outdoor games this season, the Falcons are 0-4 SU and 2-2 ATS, losing those games outright by 11.8 PPG. In outdoor games since 2020, the Falcons are 11-20 SU.
➤Since Baker Mayfield arrived in Tampa Bay, he has started all 58 games for the Bucs, going 27-21 ATS, a top-10 mark ATS in the NFL in that span.
Since 2013, Todd Bowles has had to turn to a backup QB ten times and hasn’t had to do it since 2018 – Bowles is 1-9 SU and 4-6 ATS in those games, beating Colin Kaepernick and the 49ers with Bryce Petty in 2016.
➤Cardinals are off an overtime loss last week against the Jaguars and now are playing on the road vs. the Bucs.
Over the last decade, road teams after an OT loss are actually 36-23 ATS (61%).
p:overtime=1 and op:overtime=0 and season >= 2016 and A and p:L
➤Bucs have faced the Cardinals five times since 2013 and they are 0-5 ATS vs. Arizona – going back in the last 30 years, same story, Tampa Bay is 2-8 ATS in their last ten meetings vs. Cardinals.
➤Don’t expect a bounce back. In October and November, teams above .500 SU, on a 2+ game losing streak are 56-71-5 ATS (44%) since 2003. This week, that is the Bucs.
➤Cardinals are 1-8 SU in their last 9 games and the season seems to have slipped away in the bad stretch. Teams +3 or shorter who have lost 8 of their last 9 at least ten games into the season are actually 22-14 SU and 23-13 ATS – if the market thinks you have a shot, you do.
➤Bucs need to try and stop the free fall. They entered the bye at 6-2 SU and have now lost three straight and Arizona might be what Tampa needs.
Teams that lost 3+ in a row off a bye week, who still have a win pct of 45% or higher after the losing streak, facing a team with a win pct of 45% or less are 6-1 SU/ATS since 1990, covering by 11.6 PPG, winning six in a row.
➤The Cardinals are a pass machine under Jacoby Brissett. 40+ pass attempts in three straight games. Last three seasons, teams with 40+ passes in three straight games are 13-7 to the over, going over by 5.5 PPG.
➤Arizona has started fast this season, with an 8-3 1Q ATS mark, which is the 2nd-best mark for any team in the NFL. The 1st quarter and 3rd quarter are the more scripted quarters, while the 2nd and 4th have a bit less of that.
Arizona is 16-6 ATS in 1st and 3rd quarters and 10-12 ATS in 2nd and 4th quarters this season.
➤Matthew Stafford stays the NFL MVP favorite entering Week 13. He has 30 pass TD and 2 INT through 11 games. The only other QB in history with 30+ pass TD and 2 INT or fewer through 11 games was Patrick Mahomes in 2020.
➤As a road favorite, the Rams and Sean McVay are beyond consistent. They are 37-8 SU and 28-17 ATS in that spot, winning 15 in a row outright.
As above a 4-point favorite on the road or neutral site, McVay and the Rams are 20-0 SU, winning by 13.7 PPG (he is 12-8 ATS in those games, 19-0-1 in a 6-point teaser).
If you want some precedence for McVay’s mark, the next-closest undefeated mark since 2005 is Lovie Smith at 11-0 SU.
➤We have a team .500 on the season, at 6-6 in Carolina, currently about a double-digit home underdog this week.
The last time we saw a .500 or better team, 10+ games into the season as a double-digit home dog with their starting QB in? 2007 Giants with Eli Manning against the Patriots in Week 17. Giants lost 38-35, but covered the 13-point spread.
➤Back to the normal window.
Bryce Young has made 3 starts at night. Carolina is 0-3 SU, scoring 39 total pts in the 3 games. Overall, Bryce has started 8 career games in either the 4p ET or night game window as a starter of the Panthers – Carolina is 0-8 SU in those games, losing by 7 PPG.
At 1p ET or earlier, Bryce is 12-19 SU in his career and he has won 5 of his last 6 starts and at home in this window, he is 7-8 SU as a starter.
➤Rams are on a 6-game win streak and are now laying over a full TD this week. Since 2003, teams on a 6+ game win streak, who are favored above 7 pts are 58-74-1 ATS, including 6-13 ATS since 2022.
➤ Nobody likes an East Coast trip like Sean McVay. The Rams are 18-9-2 ATS on the road out east under him, covering the spread by 4.1 PPG. Even as a favorite out east, he is 11-6 ATS.
➤Young makes his 2nd career start on short rest. The first time, he got a bit lucky.
In 2023, he faced the Bears on Thursday Night Football, and went 21-38, 185 pass yds, 0 TD, 0 INT, taking 3 sacks. When looking at expected pts added by pass offense in that game: -5.3 – not great.
➤Both the Rams and Panthers are coming off night games last week – last three seasons, when both teams are coming off a night game, the over is 21-11 (65%), going over the total by 7.1 PPG.
➤Panthers and 49ers both have a bye coming up after this week and are facing opponents not in the same spot. In the last decade, teams with upcoming rest (facing a team with not) are winning 57% of games and covering 58.2%.
➤Vikings are massive underdogs vs. Seahawks this week. As head coach of the Vikings, Minnesota has never closed as a double-digit underdog under Kevin O’Connell.
O’Connell’s Vikings have closed as a 7-point underdog or higher twice. Minnesota is 2-0 SU/ATS:
- +9.5, 2025 at Lions (W, 27-24)
- +7, 2023 vs. 49ers (W, 22-17)
Here are the biggest lines as an underdog for Minnesota last 20 years:
- +14, 2010 at Eagles (W, 24-14)
- +13, 2013 at Seahawks (L, 41-20)
- +12.5, 2021 at Packers (L, 37-10)
- +12.5, 2011 at Packers (L, 45-7)
➤Seahawks are double-digit favorites in consecutive weeks with a solid win pct at 72.7% this year. Teams listed as double-digit favorites in consecutive games with a win pct of 70+ are just 39-50 ATS dating back to 2004.
➤JJ McCarthy had a really rough Week 12.
QBs w/ 2+ INT, 5+ sacks, less than 100 pass yds on 15+ attempts since 2010
- JJ McCarthy
- Bailey Zappe
- Clayton Tune
- Josh Rosen
➤Sam Darnold has been a favorite of 6 pts or more nine times as a starter in the NFL. He is 9-0 SU and 7-2 ATS in those games.
In the last 20 years, Darnold’s 9-0 SU mark as a favorite of 6 pts or more is the 2nd-best undefeated mark behind Ryan Fitzpatrick, who is 10-0 SU and Darnold can match this week.
➤If the Vikings are forced to go to rookie Max Brosmer in this game with McCarthy in concussion protocol, there are a few ways to look at it.
This season, QBs making their first career start are actually 3-3 SU, with Shedeur Sanders, Jaxon Dart and JJ McCarthy winning outright (2020 was the last time QBs making 1st start finished the season above .500 SU).
On the other side, last 40 years, six QBs have made their first starts on the road in Seattle, it's 1-5 SU. Since 2000, QBs in their first ten starts in the NFL are 6-33 SU on the road in Seattle, losing by 13 PPG.
➤Teams off bad passing games tend to see a bit of a bounce back. Teams off under 110 pass yds, playing on the road in their next game, are 108-87-5 ATS since 2003, including 10-7 ATS last three seasons.
➤Dating back to 1997, the Seahawks have faced a team on a 3+ game SU losing streak or longer 62 times – they are 48-14 SU in those games. At home, they are 30-7 SU in that span vs. teams on a losing streak.
➤ Vikings' season is spiraling fast. They’ve lost 3 in a row SU/ATS and are 1-5 SU/ATS in their last six games. Under O’Connell, Minnesota hasn’t dealt with losing well. After any SU loss, they are just 8-13-1 ATS. Of 7 QBs under O’Connell in this spot, only Wentz is above .500 ATS at 2-1.
➤Bills are coming off another bad loss this season, this time against the Texans.
Since the beginning of last season, the Bills are 5-2 ATS after a SU loss. Under Josh Allen, Buffalo has played four games on 10+ days rest off a loss, they are 4-0 SU, covering the spread by 8.5 PPG.
➤Allen and Mike Tomlin have faced off five times in their NFL careers – Buffalo is 4-1 SU/ATS vs. the Steelers in those games. Since 2022, Buffalo is 2-0 SU/ATS, winning by a combined margin of 69-20 in those two games. This will be Josh’s second trip to Pittsburgh, which he did back in 2019, a 17-10 win for the Bills.
➤Bills are 3-8 against the spread in the 1st half this season — tied for the 2nd-worst mark in the NFL, just behind the Panthers.
Buffalo’s 3-8 1H ATS mark is the worst through 11 games for the franchise in the last 20 years.
➤A Tomlin spot.
- Tomlin is 67-41-5 ATS as an underdog, 62%
- At home, Tomlin is 23-8-3 ATS as an underdog, 74%
As a home underdog off a loss, the Steelers are 13-4 ATS under Tomlin. In November or later, he is 9-1 ATS in that spot.
➤Texans and Bills played on Thursday Night Football last week, playing on a short week and now they have some extended rest before their next game.
Since the start of 2023, teams that play on short rest and then play on extended rest in their next game see that game go over the total 59% of the time for a 67-49-1 (58%) mark.
➤ The Steelers are a pretty terrible pass defense, allowing 258.7 yards per game, which is the 2nd-worst mark in the NFL behind only the Bengals.
Allen has faced a pass defense allowing 225+ pass yds per game 25 total times over the past four seasons, and Buffalo is 8-17 ATS in those games; the only worse mark ATS in that span is Will Levis’ 0-10 ATS mark in this spot.
➤ Last week, the Bills weren’t able to get to Davis Mills, officially recording no sacks against Houston on defense.
Under Sean McDermott, Buffalo is 6-13 SU and 4-15 ATS when recording no sacks on defense. Since the start of 2021, Buffalo is 6-1 SU after recording no sacks in their previous game, winning by 14 PPG.
➤In three meetings since the start of last year, the Chargers are 3-0 SU/ATS vs. the Raiders. These three wins all come since the beating of a lifetime, when the Raiders beat L.A. 63-21 back in 2023.
➤Jim Harbaugh and Pete Carroll meet again.
This will be their 11th meeting in the NFL. They have evenly split the previous ten, 5 wins a piece outright, but Pete is 6-3-1 ATS against Harbaugh.
Their rivalry has been simple in the NFL: when Pete is a favorite of 1.5 pts or more, he is 5-0 SU vs. Harbaugh, under that mark, Pete is 0-5 SU vs Jim.
At Stanford, Harbaugh went 2-1 SU and 3-0 ATS vs. Pete and his Trojans.
➤Chargers play on Monday Night Football next week. Since 2019, teams with MNF on deck are actually covering the spread at a 58% rate at 123-88 ATS, over .500 ATS in the last seven seasons.
➤Chargers are off a bye this week to face the Raiders.
Justin Herbert has had success off any extended prep time, going 7-4 ATS in his last 11 starts in the spot and he’s won four in a row outright.
➤Herbert has made a total of 30 starts vs. the AFC West in his career as the starter for the Chargers – he is 20-9-1 ATS in those games, going 8-0-1 ATS in his last 9 division starts.
Herbert hasn’t lost a start ATS vs. the AFC West since 2023.
➤Even with Joe Alt back, the Chargers are having blocking issues. They have the 5th-most blown blocks in the passing game this year and the 2nd-most in the running game. The Raiders aren’t much better: 7th-most in the passing game and 6th-most in the running game.
➤Geno Smith and the Raiders face a Chargers pass rush that is tied for 6th in sacks this year, at a 4.5% sack pct. The Browns had a sack percentage of 5.3% last week.
When Geno faces a defense with a sack pct of…
- 3% or higher: 21-34-4 ATS
- 4% or higher: 11-20-3 ATS
➤ When simply looking at their chances to win a game, they shouldn’t. Here is how both QBs for Washington have performed as underdogs over the last four seasons.
- Jayden Daniels: 6-7 SU, 28.7 PPG for WAS
- Marcus Mariota: 3-11 SU, 19.9 PPG for WAS/ATL
Mariota has lost 8 straight starts outright when listed as an underdog.
➤The Broncos' home and road/neutral splits show a very different team, especially on offense in the passing game with Bo Nix.
Home: 6-0 SU, 3-3 ATS, +4.5 ATS margin, 21 20+ completions, 761 YAC
A/N: 3-2 SU, 2-3 ATS, +0.9 ATS margin, 10 20+ completions, 533 YAC
➤Mariota has struggled early in games throughout his career, going 16-29-2 in the first half ATS as an underdog — the 3rd-worst mark among 264 QBs since 2005.
When Mariota faces a team above .500, he is 6-14-1 1H ATS as an underdog.
➤When Washington has expectations, they have rarely exceeded them. This was their 9th season since 2000, where they had a win total of 8 or more, they are now 9-0 to the under in those seasons.
The Commanders are 3-8 ATS this season, T-worst mark in the NFL with the Saints. This is the worst ATS start for Washington since 2013 (also started 3-9 ATS that year).
➤ The Broncos and Packers are both playing with fire. They have both trailed in all of their games this season and are still winning.
The Broncos are 9-2 SU and are 5-6 ATS, while trailing in all 11 games. The 2022 Vikings are the only team since division realignment in 2002 to trail in their first 11 games and have an 80% win pct or better entering game 12.
The 2022 Vikings lost in the Wild Card round to Daniel Jones and the Giants.
➤Both the Broncos and Commanders are off a bye entering this matchup on Sunday Night Football. A good trend for the under.
➤Patriots are now on a 9-game winning streak and playing at home on Monday Night Football this week.
New England is just the 3rd team with a win total below 9 to win 9 straight since 2019, joining the 2024 Vikings and 2019 Ravens.
Teams on an 8+ game SU win streak are 39-62-2 ATS (39%) since 2010, including 11-22-1 ATS since 2020.
➤Since 2019, the Jets and Giants are a combined 6-36 SU at night in primetime, including 1-18 SU on the road. Giants themselves are 3-20 SU at night and 1-10 SU at home in that spot. Most importantly, Jaxon Dart is 1-0 SU at night for New York.
Since division realignment in 2002, the Giants are 38-65 SU in night games. Eli Manning went 34-38 SU no other Giants QB has more than one win at night – Dart can get his 2nd this week.
➤As an underdog of 3 pts or more, Jaxon Dart is 4-1 against the spread both full game and in the first half.
The Giants have started hot this year; they are 9-3 1Q ATS, best mark in the NFL, including 8-1 1Q ATS with Jameis Winston or Jaxon Dart at QB. With Dart and Jameis, the Giants are 5-3 to the full game over and 1-2 to the over with Russell Wilson.
➤Last week was a good test for the Patriots. They trailed the Bengals by 10 pts early and came back to win outright, New England’s first 10+ point comeback since 2021 – they had lost 32 straight games before that.
With the Titans, Mike Vrabel went 9-3 SU/ATS after coming back from 10+ pts down to win in their previous game, unreal perseverance.
➤This is the Patriots' third night game under Mike Vrabel and Drake Maye; the Patriots are 2-0 SU/ATS in those games. When Vrabel was at the Titans, he also did well in night games, going 12-9 ATS.
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NFL Betting Systems
System: Road value on bad teams.
Matches: NO
System: Big home dogs have been cashing tickets lately.
Matches: CAR
System: Oh joy, New York. Looking first half on the underdogs.
Matches: NYJ, NYG
System: Allowing sacks is bad for business and sometimes it's contagious.
Matches: LVR, BUF
System: Dogs don't win again. Shedeur is now the test.
Matches: SF
