I've already bet three spreads for NFL Week 3, and I'm looking to add three more.
Among the games for my NFL Week 3 previews: Jets vs Buccaneers, Packers vs Browns, Rams vs Eagles, Cowboys vs Bears, Chiefs vs Giants and Colts vs Titans.
You can also find my favorite anytime touchdown parlay lottery ticket featuring Gunnar Helm and Kareem Hunt.
Let's get into my NFL Week 3 picks and predictions for Sunday, September 21.
Editor's Note: A parlay of these picks is not the author's formal recommendation. These NFL picks have value as straight bets.
  |   |   |   |   |   |
Jets vs Buccaneers
Baker Mayfield has burned me in the final minute in each of the first two games. Hopefully, that won't happen again with a touchdown in the back pocket (cue the Bucs' last-second touchdown in a tie game).
While Mayfield has been super clutch, he's also been a bit lucky with numerous dropped interceptions. Only Tua Tagovailoa has more turnover-worthy plays (7) than Mayfield (6), who has played one fewer game. While Mayfield has yet to throw an interception, Tagovailoa has four. We may see some regression on that front.
More importantly, Tampa will come into this game extremely shorthanded on offense (on a short week). Not only do Chris Godwin and Jalen McMillan remain out, but rookie Emeka Egbuka, who has looked great, has been dealing with hip and groin injuries. If that's the case, Sauce Gardner can help neutralize Mike Evans, and the rest of the weapons don't really scare anybody.
The Bucs could lean on Bucky Irving and the running game here, but that might prove more difficult with the current state of the offensive line. Not only will the Bucs have to make do without both starting tackles (Tristan Wirfs and Luke Goedeke), but they also just placed starting right guard Cody Mauch on IR.
Additionally, guard Mike Jordan didn't practice on Friday, so that means Tampa could have two new guards as well, with their center already kicked out to left tackle for Wirfs.
As a result, the Bucs won't have a single offensive lineman in their projected starting position coming into the season. That's especially not ideal on a short week, especially with Mayfield potentially a bit limited after getting nicked toward the end of Monday's game in Houston.
Jermaine Johnson won't go for the Jets, but this still should look messy for Tampa.
Defensively, the Bucs are much healthier, but did lose starting defensive end Calijah Kancey to injury. This is a solid but not spectacular defense that ranks right around the Jets on the season in net yards per play.
Everybody wants to bet the Bucs after two thrilling covers. However, they could easily be 0-2 and are now in a much worse shape regarding their roster.
Meanwhile, the Jets should have won their opener before laying an egg last week against the Bills in a game where Buffalo completely out-coached them from start to finish. I expect some schematic tweaks on both sides of the ball this week for the desperate Jets, who will turn to Tyrod Taylor to save them from a disastrous 0-3 start.
There just isn't that much of a downgrade from Justin Fields to Taylor, who is one of the league's better backups. For his career, Taylor owns a 34-21-4 (62%) ATS record, including 7-3-1 when catching seven-plus. Most importantly, he doesn't hold the ball as long as Fields and doesn't turn it over, which is key in what profiles as a lower-scoring game.
In fact, among qualified quarterbacks, Taylor has the fourth-lowest interception rate of all time at 1.6%, trailing only Jacoby Brissett, Aaron Rodgers and Justin Herbert.
Running into the teeth of the Tampa offense won't pay the bills, so the Jets will have to rely a bit more on their passing attack on Sunday — and Taylor may be better equipped to run the offense from that standpoint.
Trending: Week 3 underdogs have cashed at a 55% rate historically, with 0-2 underdogs enjoying even more success at 41-21-1 (66.1%) ATS since 2010, following the Dolphins cover on Thursday with an average cover margin of 2.7 points.
Pick: Jets +7
| | | | | |
Packers vs Browns
Are the Packers elite?
I certainly hope so for the Super Bowl future I placed back in May. They certainly look the part on both sides of the ball so far, but it has only been two games.
