The Seattle Seahawks (13-3) and San Francisco 49ers (12-4) meet tonight in a winner-take-all game for the NFC West and NFC first seed in the NFL Playoffs. Kickoff is set for 8:00 p.m. ET from Levi's Stadium in Santa Clara, Calif. The game will broadcast live on ESPN and ABC.
The Seahawks are 2.5-point favorites on the spread (Seahawks -2.5; -115), with the over/under set at 47.5 (-112o / -108u). The Seahawks are -143 favorites on the moneyline, while the 49ers are +121 underdogs.
Let's get into my Seahawks vs 49ers prediction and preview for tonight's game.
Seahawks vs 49ers Predictions & Picks
- Seahawks vs 49ers pick: Under 48
My Seahawks vs 49ers best bet is on the under. Find the best odds by checking our live NFL odds page.
Seattle Seahawks vs San Francisco 49ers Odds
| Seahawks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2.5 -115 | 47.5 -112o / -108u | -143 |
| 49ers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2.5 -106 | 47.5 -112o / -108u | +121 |
Seahawks vs 49ers Preview, Prediction
The 49ers will host the Seahawks with everything on the line.
The winner will get the No. 1 overall seed in the NFC with a first-round bye and home-field advantage throughout the NFL playoffs, while the loser will drop to either the No. 5 or No. 6 seed and hit the road for wild-card weekend.
In San Francisco's case, a win would open a path to potentially win the Super Bowl with just three home wins since the big game will be played in Santa Clara.
It is worth noting that Seattle can drop no lower than a No. 5 seed, which means a loss would have Mike Macdonald's group heading out on the highway to face the NFC North winner.
Meanwhile, the 49ers can drop as low as the No. 6 seed, which would result in a road bout against either the Eagles (if Chicago loses and Philly wins) or the Bears (if the Bears win or Eagles lose).
It is worth noting that a Seattle win would have a material impact on the Rams–Cardinals game.
Rams head coach Sean McVay has historically chosen rest over potential seed improvement in the final week of the regular season, but did say after L.A.'s loss in Atlanta on Monday night that he would play his starters in Week 18.
I find that hard to believe if the 49ers win tonight, which would lock the Rams into the No. 6 seed. However, with a Seahawks win, I'd imagine McVay would have enough incentive to win since moving up to the No. 5 seed would mean a road trip to the NFC South winner instead of Philly or Chicago.
As a result, you should see that Cardinals-Rams spread move throughout this game based on who's winning.
Getting back to the game at hand, I do think the spread is fair, as I project the Seahawks as a 1.1 point favorite. However, I do fancy the under a bit.
That might sound scary with the 49ers, who just played in a shootout with the Bears on Sunday night that finished with 80 total points. And before that, their games against Tennessee and Indianapolis finished with point totals of 61 and 75, respectively.
However, I believe we could be in for a much lower-scoring affair tonight.
For starters, this is a division matchup with everything on the line. Historically, second meetings between division foes have trended under, but the stakes of this game could lead to both teams playing this a bit more conservatively.
More importantly, this 49ers offense might not look as potent as it has in recent weeks, which had a lot to do with the level of competition it faced.
Yes, Brock Purdy and the San Francisco offense have been scorching hot over the past six weeks, but it helps when you face the defenses of Chicago, Tennessee, Arizona and Indianapolis.
Not only do all of those teams have poor stop units, but the Niners were also dealing with significant injuries on that side of the ball.
As a result, San Francisco averaged a whopping 42 points per game. However, in its two other games over that stretch against Carolina (still a below-average defense) and Cleveland (very good defense, especially at home), the 49ers averaged only 23 points per game.
Against the Browns, the 49ers averaged under 4.0 yards per play (outgained 253-252) and Purdy threw three interceptions against the Panthers.
Facing a Seattle defense that ranks second in EPA per play will present an even tougher challenge for Purdy and company, especially since the 49ers might be without star left tackle Trent Williams.
San Francisco unders can also be a scary proposition due to its porous defense that is incapable of generating pressure, especially after losing both Fred Warner and Nick Bosa to injury. Since Week 7, when the 49ers didn't have either star defender, they ranked 30th in Success Rate — ahead of only the Cardinals and Commanders.
However, the Seattle offense has been trending on a similar downward trajectory as the league has adjusted to its heavy personnel packages and reliance on play-action to connect on deep shots.
Opposing defenses have essentially started to dare Seattle to keep running the ball, while focusing on taking away the deep shots and bracketing Jaxon Smith-Njigba.
As a result, it's been a tale of two halves for Klint Kubiak's offense. Over the first nine weeks of the season, the Seahawks ranked second in EPA per drop back with Sam Darnold having 16 touchdowns to just five interceptions with an outstanding 21:4 BTT:TWP ratio.
However, since Week 10, they have fallen all the way to 23rd in the league. Darnold has thrown an equal number of touchdowns and interceptions (9) with a woeful 8:14 BTT:TWP ratio. This offense has been figured out and Darnold's efficiency has dipped precipitously.
Seahawks vs 49ers Predictions, NFL Pick to Make
The total lack of pressure the Niners can generate does concern me since that's when Darnold really struggles, but I do expect defensive coordinator Robert Saleh to sit back in deep zones, forcing Seattle to methodically drive the field without hitting many explosives.
That's something the Seahawks have really struggled to do of late. As long as Purdy doesn't make too many mistakes, I think this game has a good shot of staying under the total, which has come down a bit, but I'd still play at 48 or better.
Pick: Under 48
Seahawks vs 49ers Betting Trends
Seahawks vs 49ers Viewing Info: Channel, Start Time, Streaming
| Location: | Levi's Stadium in Santa Clara, Calif. |
| Date: | Saturday, Jan. 3 |
| Time: | 8 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming Options: | ESPN | ABC |
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