The Anaheim Ducks and Vegas Golden Knights meet in Game 5 of the NHL Playoffs tonight. Puck drop is set for 9:30 p.m. EDT at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nev. The game will be broadcast live on ESPN.
The Golden Knights are favored by -1.5 on the puck line, with the over/under set at 6.5 (-107o / -112u). The Golden Knights are a -153 favorite to win outright, while the Ducks are +125 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Ducks vs. Golden Knights predictions and NHL picks.
Ducks vs. Golden Knights Odds, Pick
| Ducks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -191 | 6.5 -107o / -112u | +125 |
| Golden Knights Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +157 | 6.5 -107o / -112u | -153 |
- Ducks vs. Golden Knights Spread: Golden Knights -1.5 (+157 ), Ducks +1.5 (-191)
- Ducks vs. Golden Knights Over/Under: 6.5 (-107o / -112u)
- Ducks vs. Golden Knights Moneyline: Ducks +125, Golden Knights -153
Ducks vs Golden Knights Kalshi Odds
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Ducks vs. Golden Knights Preview
Anaheim Ducks
The Ducks revived their power play in Game 4 after a brutal 0-for-11 start to the series. Anaheim cashed in twice on four man-advantage opportunities, which felt more like the team that torched Edmonton in the first round at a 50% clip.
The first gave them a 1-0 lead, one of just three times in 10 playoff games the Ducks have scored the opening goal. The second came late in the second period to break a 2-2 tie and ultimately proved to be the difference.
After Vegas appeared to have neutralized what was arguably Anaheim's most dangerous weapon this playoffs, Game 4 offered a reason for optimism. Whether that carries over is a big storyline heading into the rest of the series.
The underlying numbers for that coming true are not great, with just 2.94 expected goals on 15 opportunities, and the Ducks finished the regular season 23rd in power-play percentage. Still, they have shown the ability to get it going in spurts, and that has to count for something.
Beckett Sennecke is another factor to watch. He managed just one goal in six games against Edmonton, which also happened to be his only point of that series, but has found the back of the net in each of the last three games.
Also, Mason McTavish returned to the lineup after being a healthy scratch in Games 2 and 3. The decision appeared to be a calculated one, with the power play sputtering and McTavish having scored six of his 17 regular-season goals on the man advantage. His presence gives Anaheim another credible threat in those situations.
In net, Lukas Dostal bounced back after a rough Game 3, where he was pulled following three first-period goals on just eight shots on net. He was largely sharp throughout Game 4, though he did surrender a late goal that briefly tightened things up with about a minute remaining.
He’s playing to a .875 SV%, a 2.73 GAA this series, as well as a playoff-worst -4.4 GSAx overall this postseason.
Vegas Golden Knights
I think the biggest concern for Vegas right now is the status of Mark Stone. The Knights went 8-9-5 without him this season and 31-17-12 with him. He is unquestionably one of the best two-way forwards in the game and is severely missed.
After dominating Game 3 with 18 high-danger chances and a 61.15% expected goal share, Vegas looked a little lost at times in Game 4, though still produced 11 high-danger chances and a 49.99% expected goal share.
With Stone out last game, Brandon Saad slotted in alongside Tomas Hertl and Keegan Kolesar, but the trio managed just 4:10 of ice time and one shot on goal.
Stone is questionable again tonight, and if he misses, the Knights will need their top line to pick up some slack. The second line has done most of the damage so far, with Brett Howden and Mitch Marner leading the way. Marner has been excellent, racking up four goals and five assists in the series.
Defensively, Vegas should have the edge based on full-season numbers, but the Ducks have raised some eyebrows, allowing just 6.99 xGA compared to 8.17 for the Knights at 5-on-5 thus far.
The Knights ranked second in that category during the regular season compared to 21st for Anaheim, so I still think Vegas holds the advantage there as the series tightens. That said, Jackson LaCombe and the rest of the Ducks' blue line have earned some respect, and it is not out of the question that it becomes something they can beat Vegas with down the stretch of this series.
Carter Hart has settled in nicely after some bumps against Utah. He allowed four goals on 23 shots on net last game, but has given up two or fewer in each of the other three. He is sitting at a .905 SV% and 0.3 GSAx this playoffs, and John Tortorella's public backing appears to have done him some good.
Ducks vs. Golden Knights Prediction
I’ve kind of flipped my stance on this series. Looking back, there is a reasonable case the Ducks have outplayed Vegas in three of the four games. The one that stands out most is Game 1, a 3-1 loss where Anaheim posted a 67.02% expected goal share and won the high-danger chance battle 12 to 6 at 5-on-5.
I was right that Vegas would pose a different challenge than Edmonton and that the power-play numbers were somewhat inflated by the Oilers' inability to defend. But reinserting McTavish into the lineup gave the unit a boost, at least schematically, and Game 4 was a good sign in that regard.
Anaheim's ability to defend has been a pleasant surprise throughout the playoffs as well. I am a big fan of how this roster is constructed, with a mix of veterans and youth, and Coach Q has done a great job getting the most out of it.
I like the odds on the Ducks to steal one on the road after seeing how this series has played out.
Pick: Ducks Moneyline (+125, FanDuel)
