The Boston Bruins (32-20-3) and Tampa Bay Lightning (34-14-4) meet in the NHL Stadium Series, where roughly 65,000 fans will fill Raymond James Stadium tonight. Puck drop is set for 6:30 p.m. EST in Tampa, FL. The game will be broadcast live on ESPN.
The Lightning are favored by -1.5 on the puck line, with the over/under set at 6 (-110o / -107u). The Lightning are a -225 favorite to win outright, while the Bruins are +185 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Bruins vs. Lightning predictions and NHL picks.
Bruins vs. Lightning Odds, Pick
| Bruins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -130 | 6 -110o / -107u | +185 |
| Lightning Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +110 | 6 -110o / -107u | -225 |
- Bruins vs. Lightning Spread: Lightning -1.5 (+110 ), Bruins +1.5 (-130)
- Bruins vs. Lightning Over/Under: 6 (-110o / -107u)
- Bruins vs. Lightning Moneyline: Bruins +185, Lightning -225
Bruins vs. Lightning Preview
Boston Bruins
The Bruins have been one of the NHL's greatest overachievers this season, as after entering the year priced at +400 to make the playoffs, they have played to a record of 32-20-3. Per Action Bet Labs, betting on the Bruins to win every matchup this season would have yielded an ROI of +23.4%, which is second only to the San Jose Sharks.
Personally, I'm not sure I was more off on any team than the Bruins, and certainly can't claim to have taken advantage of the long game-by-game prices backing them to win very often. If you had told me at the start of the season that Boston would achieve close to 100 points, I'd have immediately assumed that meant Jeremy Swayman was in Vezina contention and head coach Marco Sturm's side fared exceptionally well in low-scoring matchups.
But what's arguably even more surprising than Boston's record is the fact that it ranks eighth in the NHL in goals scored per game. Entering the year, the forward corps looked quite unconvincing on paper, aside from David Pastrnak, who's proven to be a top-ten forward in the NHL.
Morgan Geekie is proving that last season was no fluke, while Elias Lindholm and Pavel Zacha have been more productive than expected. Young forwards such as Fraser Minten and Marat Khusnutdinov have also brought more to the table than expected.
The Bruins' power play has also been highly effective, succeeding on 26.8% of opportunities. Hindsight is 20-20, but this is the one area of offensive success that seems most reasonable for the Bruins, given that Pastrnak and Geekie are excellent shooting options on the flanks, while Charlie McAvoy is a strong quarterback on the top unit.
Boston has scored 21.75 more goals than expected entering this matchup, and it does appear that it is due for offensive regression moving forward.
Throughout 14 games in the month of January, the Bruins have generated 3.38 xGA/60 and hold an expected goal share of 47.32%. They hold the fourth-highest save percentage in the NHL in that span, as well as the third-highest shooting percentage in the league.
It does seem likely that the Bruins will come down to earth offensively, but it seems entirely reasonable to believe that Swayman will continue to be one of the best goaltenders in the NHL. He had a down year last season following an ugly contract negotiation, but has returned to his previous level of dominance with a +16.1 GSAx rating and .903 save percentage across 37 appearances thus far this season.
The Bruins will be without two notable forwards in this matchup, as Lindholm and Zacha will be unavailable. Lindholm in particular seems to be more of a product of his environment, though, and while the Bruins' center depth is highly unconvincing, I'm not sold that Minten and Khusnutdinov offer that significant a drop off.
That point can be further detailed by the fact that the line of Khusnutdinov, Pastrnak and Geekie holds a 53.1% expected goal share across 94.4 minutes of play, while the combination of Lindholm, Pastrnak and Geekie holds a 46% expected goal share across 226 minutes of play, while the units both hold an actual goal share of 50%.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Jon Cooper has steadily earned the reputation of being one of the best coaches in the NHL, based on the Lightning's back-to-back Stanley Cup Championships in 2020 and 2021, as well as their overall level of dominance during his tenure. His success with the Canadian National team certainly doesn't hurt either.
It seems hard to believe Cooper has never received the Jack Adams trophy, but despite this year's race being extremely competitive, there is a strong case that this should be the year he gets it.
It's hard to dispute that to this point, the Lightning have been the best team in the Eastern Conference and the second-best team in the NHL. They hold a record of 34-14-4 playing out of an incredibly strong Atlantic Division and a goal differential of +52. In the month of January, the Lightning hold an expected goal share of 58.6%, which is the best mark in the NHL.
Typically, Cooper's case for the Jack Adams has been hurt by the overall level of talent on the roster, as he's had the luxury of starting arguably the best goaltender of this decade in Andrei Vasilevskiy and a top-five forward in Nikita Kucherov, among several others.
However, as the Lightning have dealt with numerous key injuries throughout the majority of the season, Cooper's case appears stronger this year as he appears to be getting the absolute most from some skaters who were far from household names entering the year, such as defenders Darren Raddysh, JJ Moser, and even Charle-Edouard D'Astous.
The Lightning will remain without several notable skaters in this matchup, as Brayden Point, Victor Hedman, D'Astous, Emil Lilleberg are expected to remain unavailable.
While on paper the defensive losses seem critical, the Lightning have allowed only 2.66 xGA/60 over the last ten games and have still ice a very effective defense corps, with seemingly nine defenders inside the organization capable of playing effective minutes this season.
Vasilevskiy has played to a +22.6 GSAx rating and a .920 save percentage in 34 appearances this season and is a safe bet to get the start in this high-profile matchup.
Bruins vs. Lightning Prediction
Oddsmakers have been highly reluctant to give the Bruins much credit this season, as they entered the year with low expectations and hold extremely modest underlying numbers relative to their actual results. I'm in agreement with the idea that the Bruins probably aren't as formidable as their record suggests, and would not be surprised if they slow down over the final 27 games and ultimately flirt with missing the playoffs.
The Lightning have been the best team in the Eastern Conference and look to be a very well-rounded side that should prove to be a very tough out in the postseason.
While I'm in agreement that the Lightning are a full-fledged Cup contender and that the Bruins seem weaker than their record suggests, the Bruins still look to be the more appealing bet in this matchup at their current price of +170.
The Bruins should continue to receive some of the best goaltending in the league from Swayman, which always provides a strong backbone to steal any matchup. Outdoor games also seem to be a little more volatile than regular matchups, given that the ice conditions can be hit-or-miss, something we saw when the New York Rangers pummeled the Florida Panthers in the Winter Classic.
And as outlined, I'm not sold that Lindholm's absence really hurts the Bruins, and the line has moved towards Tampa Bay in the time since it was confirmed that he would miss this game.
I'd be willing to lay -215 to back the Lightning beating the Bruins in a seven-game playoff series, but in this particular spot I'd much rather take my chances backing the Bruins stealing this one as heavy underdogs at +176.
Pick: Bruins Moneyline (+185, Play to +170)
