The Buffalo Sabres and Montreal Canadiens meet in Game 4 of the NHL Playoffs tonight. Puck drop is set for 7:00 p.m. EDT at Bell Centre in Montreal, QC. The game will be broadcast live on ESPN.
The Canadiens are favored by -1.5 on the puck line, with the over/under set at 6.5 (+102o / -122u). The Canadiens are a -141 favorite to win outright, while the Sabres are +118 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Sabres vs. Canadiens predictions and NHL picks.
Sabres vs. Canadiens Odds, Pick
| Sabres Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -207 | 6.5 +102o / -122u | +118 |
| Canadiens Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +172 | 6.5 +102o / -122u | -141 |
- Sabres vs. Canadiens Spread: Canadiens -1.5 (+172 ), Sabres +1.5 (-207)
- Sabres vs. Canadiens Over/Under: 6.5 (+102o / -122u)
- Sabres vs. Canadiens Moneyline: Sabres +118, Canadiens -141
Sabres vs Canadiens Polymarket Odds
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Sabres vs. Canadiens Preview
Buffalo Sabres
When the Sabres first took the ice in Montreal, it felt like a shock to their system.
They must’ve known that the Bell Centre was going to be a madhouse, but it felt like that and more. But Buffalo quickly silenced the raucous Habs fans after Tage Thompson tucked in a goal 38 seconds in. And suddenly, it felt like a whole new ball game.
But then Alex Newhook scored later in the first, then Cole Caufield joined in on the fun in the second. Then shortly after, all hell broke loose.
It was total mayhem, and the Sabres couldn’t do much to stop the bleeding. According to Moneypuck, they were completely dominated, giving Buffalo a 30% chance to win the game.
Captain Rasmus Dahlin was the most effective skater on the team, playing to a .97 expected goals rate, but next in line was Zach Benson at a .45 xGF.
The line featuring Thompson, Peyton Krebs and Alex Tuch was completely outmatched on the defensive end, which is rare for them, and the defensive pairing of Bowen Byram and Owen Power took the brunt of Montreal’s punch with a .54 xGA – the worst of all defensive pairings.
Because of that, there wasn’t much Alex Lyon could do. He made some really heroic saves in the game, and the 6-2 score could’ve ended up being 9-2 if it weren’t for him.
He’s hardly the problem, because Montreal dangled around the Sabres defense. So if the team is going to go down, it won’t be because of him.
Montreal Canadiens
The NHL is in a real hot period right now, because it has so many flourishing young teams thriving. Buffalo is one, but the Canadiens are another.
After Thompson scored that early goal, instead of knocking the Habs out, it woke them up even more.
Newhook has turned into a total playoff performer, and his experience winning a Stanley Cup with the Avalanche has set him up nicely to be a young leader that this team needs.
Also, did you happen to see that slick move that Lane Hutson made to set up the Caufield goal? You know how in the Night Before Christmas, when the children were nestled in bed, with visions of sugar plums dancing in their heads? That Hutson move has been playing over and over in my head since it happened.
Lane Hutson is a joystick out there. Only NHL Draft eligible defenseman with the ability to walk around defenders like this is…
Xavier Villeneuve pic.twitter.com/rREyznpPb0
— The Prospect Don (@TheProspectDon) May 11, 2026
He’s easily one of the best defenseman in the world, and what’s crazy is that he’s only 22 years old.
If Montreal plays as it did on Sunday, there’s no way that they head into Game 5 tied. With how lights out Jakub Dobes has played, it’s hard to imagine a better performance from a netminder.
He let up one high-danger goal on Sunday, and his rebound control was elite, which is something you need to have when battling a feisty Buffalo squad.
Sabres vs. Canadiens Prediction
I may be playing with fire here, but I’m going to ride with the Sabres here.
Montreal has all the momentum after Sunday’s onslaught and Friday’s 5-1 beatdown in Buffalo, but the Sabres are a resilient bunch. If you see how they react after taking a punch on the ice, you’ll know that Buffalo isn’t going down without a fight.
Before this series, the Sabres had won every road playoff game, and for the season, they managed to pull off a 24-13-4 record.
Conversely, the Habs have actually been a little more vulnerable at home than they would be on the road.
When this series started, I had a feeling this was going the distance, and I’m not backing down from that. Buffalo at plus-money is great value.
Pick: Buffalo Sabres ML (+116, FanDuel)
