The Columbus Blue Jackets (2-3-0) and Dallas Stars (3-2-0) face off tonight. Puck drop is set for 8:00 p.m. EDT at American Airlines Center in Dallas, Texas. The game will be broadcast live on ESPN+.
The Stars are favored by -1.5 on the puck line, with the over/under set at 6.5 (-105o / -115u). The Stars are a -200 favorite to win outright, while the Blue Jackets are +165 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Blue Jackets vs. Stars predictions and NHL picks.
Blue Jackets vs. Stars Odds, Pick
| Blue Jackets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -160 | 6.5 -105o / -115u | +165 |
| Stars Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +135 | 6.5 -105o / -115u | -200 |
- Blue Jackets vs. Stars Spread: +1.5 (-160), -1.5 (+135)
- Blue Jackets vs. Stars Over/Under: 6.5 (-105o / -115u)
- Blue Jackets vs. Stars Moneyline: Blue Jackets +165, Stars -200
Blue Jackets vs. Stars Preview
Columbus Blue Jackets
Though the totals have not yet reflected it, the Blue Jackets have offered a highly comparable style of play as we saw last season when they ranked eighth in goals for per game and eighth in goals against per game. Columbus has generated 3.42 xGF/60 this season but allowed 4.14 xGA/60, which is the fourth-worst mark in the NHL.
Though they come in a small sample of play, those data points could be indicative of the strengths and weaknesses a young Blue Jackets side will offer all season long and are similar to what we saw last season. The Blue Jackets forward corps offers strong offensive upside but features plenty of young skaters who are still learning the game defensively at the NHL level.
Columbus's top line of Dmitri Voronkov, Sean Monahan, and Kirill Marchenko is capable of winning tough minutes versus opponents' top lines and holds a highly impressive +22 goal differential in even-strength play dating back to the start of last season. They have not only produced a ton of offense in that span but are also dominating defensively.
The rest of the Blue Jackets' offensive core has been much less effective defensively, while the defensive core is a concern relative to teams with more legitimate playoff aspirations.
Columbus's power play has only succeeded on 7.7% of opportunities this season, which is the lowest success rate in the NHL. Their setup looks quite respectable, though, as Zach Werenski is one of the better power play quarterbacks in the NHL, while Marchenko offers an elite one-timer from the left circle.
The Blue Jackets will need to find far more success with the man advantage to have a chance of sniffing the postseason this year, and it is a likely area for improvement moving forward.
After finishing with a -8.2 GSAx and .892 save percentage last season, Elvis Merzlikins has gotten off to a better start, even if his 3.54 GAA doesn't exactly suggest it. He's stopped 92% of shots faced thus far and has been tasked with a difficult workload playing behind a shaky defensive side.
Dallas Stars
The Stars entered the season priced as the fourth favorite to win the Stanley Cup, but have moved to the fifth favorite thanks to the Vegas Golden Knights' highly impressive start. They arguably have not looked as dominant as expected during their 3-2-0 start to the campaign, but with such a proven roster, there certainly aren't any alarm bells going off over a modest start.
Though they do not offer the same level of top talent as other Western contenders, such as the Colorado Avalanche and Edmonton Oilers, the Stars have arguably the deepest offensive core in the NHL, headlined by elite talents such as Roope Hintz, Mikko Rantanen, Wyatt Johnston, and Jason Robertson.
While the Stars may not fare that well in matchups versus Monahan's line in this matchup, their depth should cause issues for a Blue Jackets side offering a shaky defensive core and three offensive units that are not likely to defend overly well this season. The Stars have scored 3.50 goals per game this season and ranked fifth in GF/GP average last season, and their high offensive upside should be on display in this matchup.
The Stars will be without Matt Duchene in this matchup, who will be sidelined with an upper-body injury. While Duchene's absence hurts, the Stars will still offer two very high-end offensive units in this matchup, and those units may play more minutes in this matchup than in the majority of matchups this season in which Dallas has offered more balanced offensive units.
Tyler Seguin will join Hintz and Rantanen on the first line, while Robertson, Johnston and Mavrik Bourque will form what should be a strong second unit.
Jake Oettinger has been confirmed as the Stars' starting goaltender in this matchup. He holds a .905 save percentage and 2.95 GAA in his first four appearances of the season.
Blue Jackets vs. Stars Prediction
While a total of 6.5 with slight juice to the under is the second-highest betting total among tonight's 10-game NHL slate, it's well warranted given the Blue Jackets' style of play, and there still looks to be value in betting the over.
The Blue Jackets have been allowing plenty of high-quality scoring chances against so far this season, which is no surprise considering their style of play in 2024-25. The Stars are a handful to keep in check offensively, and they should be able to generate a strong offensive output in this matchup.
While Dallas is a quality defensive team, the Blue Jackets feature an underrated offensive attack in their own right and will likely need to press for offense in this matchup, as I'm in agreement with oddsmakers in believing the Stars will generate more than three goals on average in this game.
The Stars' penalty kill has succeeded on just 72.7% of opportunities this season, and this could be a good spot for the Blue Jackets' power play to get right after a surprisingly poor start to the season.
At -105 I see value in betting this game to feature over 6.5 goals, as I think this one sets up as a potential shootout.
Pick: Over 6.5 Goals (-105, bet365; play to -110)
