The Montreal Canadiens and Buffalo Sabres meet in Game 2 of the NHL Playoffs Friday. Puck drop is set for 7:00 p.m. EDT at KeyBank Center in Buffalo, N.Y. The game will be broadcast live on TNT.
The Sabres are priced at +185 to cover the puck-line (-1.5), with the over/under set at 5.5 (-120o / +105u). The Sabres are a -135 favorite to win outright, while the Canadiens are +115 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Canadiens vs. Sabres predictions and NHL picks.
Canadiens vs. Sabres Odds, Pick
| Canadiens Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -225 | 5.5 -125o / 105u | +114 |
| Sabres Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +185 | 5.5 -125o / 105u | -135 |
- Canadiens vs. Sabres Spread: Sabres -1.5 (+185), Canadiens +1.5 (-225)
- Canadiens vs. Sabres Over/Under: 5.5 (-125o / +105u)
- Canadiens vs. Sabres Moneyline: Canadiens +114, Sabres -135
Canadiens vs Sabres Polymarket Odds
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Canadiens vs. Sabres Preview
Montreal Canadiens
After grinding their way past the Tampa Bay Lightning in a tight-checking, closely contested series, the Canadiens fell flat in Game 1 and struggled to adjust to the pace and aggressiveness of the Sabres. The Canadiens won the highest percentage of puck battles of any team in Round 1, but that strength did not carry over in Game 1, where it felt as though Buffalo dictated the pace.
While it was not necessarily what was expected based on the regular season and totality of Martin St. Louis' tenure as head coach, Montreal's excellent defensive play was the greatest reason it was able to upset the Lightning in Round 1, who believe it or not, were the favorite to win the East entering the postseason.
The Canadiens allowed only 2.39 xGA/60 in Round 1, and did a good job of limiting scoring chances that came following plays through the royal road. Jakub Dobes was very sharp in goal when needed, but aside from in Game 7, he was not necessarily asked to steal games by any means.
It was widely expected that this would be a much different-looking series from a tactical perspective. The Sabres are not as well adept at forcing dump-ins in the neutral zone as the Lightning were, but their defensive core drives offense in transition quite effectively, while the overall depth of their forward corps suddenly appears much more formidable than that of the Lightning.
The Canadiens' dynamic duo of Nick Suzuki and Cole Caufield struggled mightily to produce at even strength versus the Lightning, whether they played alongside Juraj Slafkovsky or Josh Anderson. They spent a lot of time against elite defensive units last round, and it seemed reasonable to believe that in what would likely be a more wide-open, fast-paced series, they would offer a greater offensive impact at even strength.
That was not the case in Game 1, as Suzuki and Caufield combined for just one power play point, while the top line of Caufield, Suzuki, and Slafkovsky held a 32.3% expected goal share across 12 minutes of five-on-five play.
Montreal allowed 3.13 expected goals in Game 1, and generated 2.30 expected goals themselves, though the Canadiens did control play most effectively after score effects took hold in the third period.
It wasn't a banner evening for Dobes in Game 1, who was making an eighth straight start for the first time in his career. He now holds a +3.5 GSAx and a .910 save percentage this postseason.
Buffalo Sabres
The Boston Bruins appeared to be fairly lucky to stretch the series to six games in Round 1, and it never truly felt as though the Sabres were at legitimate risk of losing the series. Boston did appear to be the worst Eastern Conference team to qualify for the postseason, but Buffalo earned its way into the series by winning the ultra-competitive Atlantic Division.
The Sabres offer excellent balance amongst the top three offensive lines and have several excellent two-way forwards that bring a ton of energy into the lineup every night. Ryan McLeod, Zach Benson and Josh Doan have all become fan favorites and continue to offer excellent play in the middle six.
The Sabres have generated 4.18 xGF/60 this postseason and have done so with a well-balanced approach. The defensive core offers some pieces capable of driving offensive play very effectively, led by Norris Trophy nominee Rasmus Dahlin, and head coach Lindy Ruff's side continues to fare well in playing an up-tempo, aggressive game.
Buffalo has also only allowed 2.84 xGA/60 this postseason, which is a notable improvement from the regular season. The one caveat to that note is that the talent of the Bruins' offensive core seemed vastly overrated entering the postseason, but it is still a convincing improvement from a side that strives to win with a more open style than many other teams still in the mix.
Alex Lyon is expected to get the start in goal. He holds a +5.5 GSAx rating and .950 save percentage in five appearances this postseason.
Canadiens vs. Sabres Prediction
St. Louis will likely be preaching the need for his side to get back to the style of play that allowed the Canadiens to knock off the high-powered Lightning in Round 1. While strategically Montreal may be aiming to make this more of a chess match than Game 1 was which is a concern regarding backing the over, a total of 5.5 still looks to be a little low.
The Lightning's offensive depth proved to be a major issue in Round 1, which was a key reason Montreal was able to limit the number of quality chances coming towards Dobes. While Tampa Bay was a superior defensive side to the Sabres, I'm not sure the Canadiens will be able to perform as effectively defensively versus a much deeper Sabres lineup that seems dead set on a more aggressive approach.
While Buffalo showed strong defensive improvement in Round 1, that was likely in part due to the lack of quality offensive talent in the Bruins lineup aside from David Pastrnak.
It seemed logical that the early part of this series would be relatively high-event hockey, and Game 1 did hit six goals with no empty netters. Things will likely tighten up in the later stages of this series as is typically the case, but for the time being a total of 5.5 looks too low and there seems to be value betting the over.
Pick: Over 5.5 Goals -120 (Bet365, Play to -125)
