Let's get into my Senators vs. Capitals prediction and NHL picks.
The Ottawa Senators (34-23-9) and Washington Capitals (33-27-8) meet in the NHL tonight. Puck drop is set for 7:30 p.m. EDT at Capital One Arena in Washington, DC. The game will be broadcast live on ESPN+.
Both teams are still vying for a playoff position, but are still on the outside of the race. The Senators are favored by -1.5 on the puck line, with the over/under set at 5.5 (-140o / +112u). The Senators are a -134 favorite to win outright, while the Capitals are +112 to pull off the upset.
Senators vs. Capitals Odds, Pick
| Senators Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +186 | 5.5 -140o / 112u | -134 |
| Capitals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -235 | 5.5 -140o / 112u | +112 |
- Senators vs. Capitals Spread: Senators -1.5 (+186), Capitals +1.5 (-235)
- Senators vs. Capitals Over/Under: 5.5 (-140o / +112u)
- Senators vs. Capitals Moneyline: Senators -134, Capitals +112
Senators vs. Capitals Preview
Ottawa Senators
The Ottawa Senators have played some of the best defensive hockey in the league this season. They employ a stingy style that suppresses opposing offenses, resulting in the second-fewest shots on goal allowed per game.
Not only does Ottawa limit shots, but it also excels at preventing high-danger scoring chances. Entering this matchup, the Senators lead the NHL in expected goals against per 60 minutes (xGA/60).
Backing that defense is goaltender Linus Ullmark, who is slated to start Wednesday. Over his past four starts against the Washington Capitals, Ullmark is 3-0-1 with a .918 save percentage and a 2.31 goals-against average.
Washington Capitals
Across the ice, Logan Thompson is expected to start for Washington. One of the league’s top goaltenders, Thompson has made 46 starts this season, posting a .912 save percentage and a 2.39 goals-against average.
He has also performed well against Ottawa. In seven career meetings, Thompson is 5-1-1 with a .923 save percentage and a 2.55 goals-against average.
However, goal support may be limited. Entering this contest, the Capitals rank in the bottom half of the league in goals scored per game, power play percentage and shooting percentage.
Senators vs. Capitals Prediction
Washington has scored two or fewer goals in each of its past three games, and facing a defensively strong Ottawa team is unlikely to reverse that trend. There were five or fewer total goals scored in each of those games.
Ottawa has seen similar results, with five or fewer total goals scored in three of its past four games.
While Ottawa’s offense presents some risk to the under, Thompson's strong track record against the Senators helps mitigate that risk.
Pick: Under 6.5 (-113 at Kalshi | Play to -120)
Editor's note: The writer's initial pick was for the under on 6.5 goals. The lines have then switched to a total of 5.5 goals. Please bet responsibly.
